The Grand National

Lambert180

I've heard loads of 'proper' gamblers say that it's a terrible race to bet on (from the POV of trying to be profitable). When I was younger, it was the only bit of punting I ever did, cos I lived literally a stone's throw from the Aintree racecourse.

IYO Neil is it too much of a lottery or can you still find decent value? I know it's harder to get great value this close to the race when the prices have come in but have you got any tips?

Goody_Ace

If you look back over the last 15 years you will see that the winner comes from the first ten in the betting.

It's actually rare for a rank outsider to win, it just seems so.

It's since they made the course softer.

Treat it as a ten horse race and with luck you might get a decent return.

Goody_Ace

The winner will almost certainly come from one of these

Vieux Lion Rouge 10

Definitly Red 11

Cause Of Causes 12

Blaklion

14

More Of That 12

One For Arthur 14

The Last Samuri 14

Pleasant Company 16

Ucello Conti

20

Saphir Du Rheu 20

The Young Master 20

FCHD

In Response to Re: The Grand National:

If you look back over the last 15 years you will see that the winner comes from the first ten in the betting. It's actually rare for a rank outsider to win, it just seems so. It's since they made the course softer. Treat it as a ten horse race and with luck you might get a decent return.
Posted by Goody_Ace

Yet if you look at just the last five winners, not one of them has gone off at less than 25-1, not one of them in the first ten in the betting.

Phantom66

In Response to The Grand National:

I've heard loads of 'proper' gamblers say that it's a terrible race to bet on (from the POV of trying to be profitable). When I was younger, it was the only bit of punting I ever did, cos I lived literally a stone's throw from the Aintree racecourse. IYO Neil is it too much of a lottery or can you still find decent value? I know it's harder to get great value this close to the race when the prices have come in but have you got any tips
Posted by Lambert180

I knew someone who was the same, he lived near the Old Roan pub where we met up pre National one year. He also used a bit of "local knowledge" to access the course but I had better say no more on that.

It was generally the only horse betting I did - for pennies with my Grandad originally, getting into the whole scene a bit more this year.

Ante-Post I am on Vicente and Perfect Candidate at 25s and 50s NRNB and 5 places (so I hope Goody Ace is wrong).

I'll be waiting on final declarations and bookie offers before adding to that.

Goody_Ace

I have 'local knowledge' of Pontefract flat racecourse.

In all these years they have never fastened down that wire fencing grid between fence posts in one area.

And incedentally, once while gaining access through this method I paid to upgrade to the gold ring

and while nipping across I didn't see that the horses were coming out for the next race.

The first I knew was,  a horse's head was in my face and I jumped a mile screamed and pushed it's head away.

The jockey was laughing - it must have been funny from his viewpoint - and that jockey was Lester Piggott.

Goody_Ace

I refer you to my earlier post.  

NChanning

 I didn't answer this before the race as it was always going to be awkward if people started nagging me for as tip given I write stuff for the tipping site and we charge for that.

 It's true that the National has become more wide-open in recent years and the prices of the winners have got a lot bigger. We are talking tiny sample-size though and I think it's wrong to say, as Tom Segal has, that the race is impossible to predict. It sort of amuses me that The Masters, which is on in the same week, has 94 runners, (30 who can't really win), and people go crazy about the eight places, (an outstanding offer and clearly a loss-leader from Sky Bet), but they aren't so excited by the 6 places that some firms offer in the 40-runner Grand National.

 I think they are both great.

 Having said all that I had four bets and only managed a place on the second to smallest one, although it was a decent price.

 Definitely you get better value in a lot of 16-runner four place races but the National is still worth doing.