Jackpot Syndicate. Tue 4th April. Our first Trial Run. We ended up with the first five winners, but

StayOrGo

Hi all.

I have been toying with the idea of putting a JACKPOT Syndicate together based upon the following strategy.

1 - Unit stake of 50p allows for a wider perm than the SCOOP6

2 - We only do it when there is a big roll over

3 - We only do it when there are at least two races with clear favourites (At least 1 race must have an odds on shot)

4 - The above scenarios will probably happen one or twice a month and could fall on any day of the week.

5 - The Jackpot is also "easier" than the SCOOP6 as it is based at 1 meeting, rather than the Tote picking the six most "open" races.

The type of perm I would anticipate us doing would be as follows.

1 - The odds on shot will be a "banker"

2 - The next least competitive race we have two selections (fav and 2nd fav potentially)

3 - This then would allow us a wider perm over the remaining four legs for example 3 selections, then 4 selections, then 5, then 6, having more selections in the more competitive races.

4 - the total perm cost for a bet like this would be: (1*2*3*4*5*6) 720 lines at 50p = £360

Syndicate members would need to set up a weekly standing order anything from £1/week for 1 share to £25/week for 25 shares.

We would wait to do the first one until sufficient funds were in the syndicate account, and the appropriate rollover and race conditions. Either this or have a one off initial payment of £5 per share to start us off.

Not to brag, but I have won both the SCOOP6 and Jackpot in the past based on this sort of principle.

However, I think as a syndicate, we would stand a greater chance still.

From my experience a strategy like this "should" be successful around 1 in 12 times, but a far greater average payout than 12 times your stake.

Just a thought, let me know if you have any thoughts, or are interested.

Cheers,

Graham

OK, today's "would be" TRIAL RUN selections are below, trimmed down to 630 lines or £315. Please note, in reality we would not do the Jackpot today, as the roll over is too small.

LEG1 - 2.00 KEMPTON:

2 - MAN FROM MARS (11/10)        (WON)

5 - BURNING HEAT (7/2)

8 - NEW MILLENIUM (13/2)

( RELUCTANTLY REMOVED ARGYLE TO REDUCE PERM SIZE, DRIFTER)

LEG2 - 2.30 KEMPTON:

1 - BIVOUAC (11/4)

3 - LAURIUM (6/5)                       (WON)

LEG3 - 3.05 KEMPTON:

1 - LASER LIGHT (8/11)           (WON)

3 - JAISALMER (10/3)

6 - WEALTH DES MOTTES (9/2) (I would normally remove this as it's a drifter, but left in as Wynne's choice, at expense of Jimmy the Jet Plane in previous leg)

LEG4 - 3.40 KEMPTON:

1 - BUGSIE MALONE (7/2)

3 - CLOUDY BOB (6/1)             (WON)

4 - GLOBALISATION (7/1)

5 - BRONCO BILLY (8/1)

7 - HANDSOME SAM (8/1)

8 - GET INVOLVED (8/1)

9 - FIELDS OF GLORY (12/1)

LEG5 - 4.10 KEMPTON:

4 - TIMEFORWEST (4/6)          (WON) 

LEG6 - 4.45 KEMPTON:

2 - A MONTMARTE (9/2)

4 - LANDSCAPE (10/3)

7 - PHAR AWAY ISLAND (6/1)

8 - DENNY KERRELL (9/1)

6 - BETTERLATETHANNEVA (11/1)    (3RD)

So the first 5 winners and then a 3rd in our first trial. A near miss. :=)

chilling

This sounds interesting Graham, and sharing the cost sounds sensible.Who makes the selections?  Going for the occasional big jackpot, does the race containing the odds on shot need more scrutiny, as only 60% of odds on shots win?

Ps.My selections in the nap comp are made just by finding something to run well( expected ) at a decent price.Not really a nap.Ive won 5K in a horse comp before, but your wins put mine in the shade for sure.Im interested to see how many respond to your idea.

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate:

This sounds interesting Graham, and sharing the cost sounds sensible.Who makes the selections?  Going for the occasional big jackpot, does the race containing the odds on shot need more scrutiny, as only 60% of odds on shots win? Ps.My selections in the nap comp are made just by finding something to run well( expected ) at a decent price.Not really a nap.Ive won 5K in a horse comp before, but your wins put mine in the shade for sure.Im interested to see how many respond to your idea.
Posted by chilling

Hi Chilling.

OK the theory regarding having the odds on shot as a banker is as follows:

1: Even though most people are on it, if the Jackpot is won, it is often only won by half, one or two units, so is still a good dividend.

2: It allows us SO much more opportunity and selections in the tough handicaps.

3: Yes there probably is a 40% chance it loses (depending on how odds on it is) but by using it as a banker it potentially gives us > 60% chance in each of the other legs.

4: If we do NOT have the odds on shot as a banker it is very hard to achieve an average of 60%+ chance in each of the other legs.

5: On a basis of an average 66.6% chance in each leg, our success rate would be 0.66 to the power of 6 = 8.27%  which is where I get the 1 in 12 figure from.

The "theory" being that we cover as close as we can to at least 60% of the betting market in each leg. It is very hard to do this without having a "banker" in one leg.

Regarding who picks the selections, I am open with this to a degree, as long as the principle is adhered to.

Namely, the odds on shot as a banker in one race, two principles in another race and the remainders can be peoples selections. Although I wouldn't want too many 20/1+ shots in as it is not a +ev move over all in these types of bets.

So I am happy for others to pick horses, or for everyone to submit their choices, but clearly I would be against our "banker" being a 10/1 shot!

Thanks for the feedback.

Cheers,

G

MAXALLY

IN. Purely as a backer. Defo a tenner min from me.

wynne1938

I would be interested,perhaps we should consider the scoop 6 as well.

I do not mind you picking the selections .as you seem to have a good knowledge.

Perhaps people can have achoice where there are several selections in a race and ones with the most selections chosen.

I would not like to spend more than £10 per day

zadoc

    

     AM INTERESTED IN THIS, AS A BACKER

    YOU OBVIOUSLY HAVE THE SKILL TO CHOOSE THE HORSES

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate:

I would be interested,perhaps we should consider the scoop 6 as well. I do not mind you picking the selections .as you seem to have a good knowledge. Perhaps people can have achoice where there are several selections in a race and ones with the most selections chosen. I would not like to spend more than £10 per day
Posted by wynne1938

Hi Wynne.

The idea is that people can do it for as little as £1 per week, up to a max of £25 per week, so nowhere near £10 a day either way.

We can either do this and wait for the funds to accrue, or we can start off by putting 5 weeks worth in, and then reverting back to the weekly amount.

Regarding the SCOOP6, this approach is for the JACKPOT only (at least initially) as the type of perm I would want to do would be too expensive at £2 per line.

Cheers,

Graham

StayOrGo

Regarding who picks the selections, I am happy to have several people input the legs where we have multiple selections.

Although in the open legs there is a valid theory about favourite bias in multi race pool bets.

This theory is that the first two or three in the betting are over-subscribed so to speak, so the value is in the 4th, 5th favourites. Although this "system" is best for placepots, it can be used as a hybrid for a jackpot system.

An example would be, to take 3 off of whatever the price of the favourite is and omit that number of initial fancied runners.

This probably isn't making much sense, so I will try an example:

If it is 5/1 the field we could omit the favourite and 2nd favourite and do the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th for example.

If it is 4/1 the field, we just omit the favourite and do the 2nd, 3rd, 4th favourite etc.

If the favourite is 3/1 or less then we go with the runners to the fore of the market, say the first 3 in the betting for example.

We need to pull a bit of all theories together, we'd need to include "market movers" if we can too.

This probably sounds complex, I have a clear idea in my mind, but conveying all the nuances is a bit tricky. We need to give ourselves a good chance of winning, whilst also going SLIGHTLY against the grain, in hope of achieving a bigger dividend.

The idea is to cover at least 60% of the betting market in each leg whilst not over subscribing to horses that represent a bigger part of the pool choices than their odds warrant. We are also looking to INCLUDE horses that are backed throughout the morning and EXCLUDE the big drifters.
In short we want to give ourselves a good chance of winning, by including MOST of the prinicipal runners, whilst having some horses in our selections, that are slightly under the radar, and who's chance of winning is greater than the share of the pool that they occupy.

We can discuss further on this thread.

Cheers,

G

vaigret

interested and await details

StayOrGo

BTW, does anyone know the best place to find the roll over details at the earliest opportunity?

Namely, which meeting it is going to carry over too.

I usually can eventually see it on the totepool website, but was hoping to know ASAP the evening before and the website often doesn't show it until the following day, which would not give us much prep time.

So using today as an example, I know there is a £13,049 roll over, but as yet, I don't know which meeting it is rolling over to.

Any assistance appreciated.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

I thought what might be a good idea, and to give everyone a sense of what it's about, would be to have a couple of trial runs for no money.

Of course would be gutting if we cash, but it will give people a flavour of what it's about.

To this regard, I will notify this thread when the conditions are met and we are going for it, as a practice.

If anyone would like to be involved with picking the horses for this trial, please post here.

We will then list our "would be" selections and see how we go. Most times I will expect us to miss out by just one or two legs, with hopefully that one time in 12, all six legs coming our way.

It will also give us the opportunity to adjust our selection process if needed.

Good idea?

Cheers,

Graham

chilling

The next days jackpot meeting is nearly always the one that carries the most prize money.On the odd occasion where there may be 2or 3 runner races, they may go elsewhere.And yes, TOTEPOOL live info should be the best site.

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate:

The next days jackpot meeting is nearly always the one that carries the most prize money.On the odd occasion where there may be 2or 3 runner races, they may go elsewhere.
Posted by chilling

Cool, thanks for this chill!

So tomorrow would be Kempton or Southwell (A/W) do you think?

chilling

Kempton.

The jackpot at Aintree on Saturday  will be a whopper.

wynne1938

Lets have atrial go at kempton tomorrow

My bankers are

2.30 Laurium

3.05 Wealth Des Mottes

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate:

Kempton. The jackpot at Aintree on Saturday  will be a whopper.
Posted by chilling

Yes it would, but that would be one we'd avoid, cos too difficult. :=)

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate:

Lets have atrial go at kempton tomorrow My bankers are 2.30 Laurium 3.05 Wealth Des Mottes
Posted by wynne1938

I haven't looked yet. Is there an odds on shot in any of the legs?

OK, anyone else got any picks?

I won't publish the final picks until just before the off in the first, so that I have the latest market mover info, and can see what horses have drifted and what have come in.

jordz16

count me in

StayOrGo

OK, lets hope it is Kempton (is there anyway we can tell for sure tonight, before I put in too much effort?)

Anyhow, Kempton would be a perfect candidate regarding the dynamic of the first six races.

However, if this were for real, we wouldn't do it yet, as the roll over is not high enough.

I will take a further look tomorrow, and remove some drifters to reduce the perm size, however my suggestion would be something like this. I have included Wynne's selections, which means our banker is in the 5th race. (Best prices available in brackets, to give you an idea)

LEG1 - 2.00 KEMPTON:

2 - MAN FROM MARS (5/4)

5 - BURNING HEAT (3/1)

4 - ARGYLE (4/1)

8 - NEW MILLENIUM (15/2)

6 - JUST POUR NOUS (12/1)

3 - THE POODLE FAKER (16/1)

LEG2 - 2.30 KEMPTON:

1 - BIVOUAC (11/4)

2 - JIMMY THE JETPLANE (11/4)

3 - LAURIUM (11/8)

LEG3 - 3.05 KEMPTON:

1 - LASER LIGHT (8/11)

3 - JAISALMER (7/2)

6 - WEALTH DES MOTTES (3/1)

LEG4 - 3.40 KEMPTON:

1 - BUGSIE MALONE (7/2)

2 - WILBERDRAGON (5/1)

3 - CLOUDY BOB (11/2)

4 - GLOBALISATION (13/2)

5 - BRONCO BILLY (10/1)

6 - SONNY THE ONE (10/1)

7 - HANDSOME SAM (10/1)

8 - GET INVOLVED (8/1)

9 - FIELDS OF GLORY (12/1)

LEG5 - 4.10 KEMPTON:

4 - TIMEFORWEST (8/11)

LEG6 - 4.45 KEMPTON:

1 - JEBS GAMBLE (8/1)

2 - A MONTMARTE (7/2)

3 - SERGIO (5/1)

4 - LANDSCAPE (11/4)

7 - PHAR AWAY ISLAND (10/1)

8 - DENNY KERRELL (13/2)

The total number of lines with all the above is 2,916 and would cost £1,458, but I will remove "drifting" selections tomorrow, just before the off of the first race, to bring it down to somewhere around the 720 lines, £360 mark.

I HASTEN TO ADD, THIS IS JUST A TRIAL RUN :=)

P.S. When I have finalised runners, I will post the "would be" selections on the opening post.

P.P.S. I haven't done this based my interpretation of form, but from a purely statistical perspective. If doing this for real, it would be a bit of the two.

P.P.P.S. We must not be too results orientated with these trials, for example, if the "banker" is the only one that lets us down, it doesn't mean that the theory is necessarily wrong. That leg would be our biggest "risk" for sure, as at 8/11, using 15% as the betting percentage, it only has a slightly better than 50% chance of winning, as chilling alluded to earlier. However, we have to take a chance somewhere, to allow a much great flexibility in the other legs.

1981MATT

So there would be a minimum of how much per share to cover the costs?

chilling

Dont forget if yours is a NR, goes on the fav, or if joint favs, lowest number cloth, and all that palava.