NL20 AJs multiway facing a turn jam with top 2

shakinaces

Been a while since posting a hand on Sky so here's my bit to add to the cash game section (ps why don't we just go back to 1 forum section for all hands and strategy?)

Was lucky to find myself at a pretty good table.  The first caller was a serial limper and must have been playing something like 85-5 and didn't seem to have much of a fold button post-flop either, although equally had remained pretty passive.  He was the main reason that I was betting big as AJ is the nuts vs him and will let me shove almost all rivers.

The second caller I'd guess 35-15 - but post flop had tended to put in little 1x - 3x bluff/blocker bets and almost always folded to a raise.  Bigger bets that went to showdown had been fairly nutted, although not just stone cold nuts.

Therefore figure his optimistic range must be:  KQ, AJ, AT, TT, JJ, 66, A6s, JT
Pessimistic range: KQ, AJ, JJ, TT, 66

vs the former I have 40.6% (actually way more than I thought it would be) and vs the latter I have 15%

Adding AT to the pessimistic range jumps me to 29%.  With £11.80 needed to win £33.04 (35.7%) that still leaves me with a fold. But if we can assume that the passive player will call behind, £11.80 to win £44.84 (26%) and we have a call?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
spew	Small blind		£0.10	£0.10	£10.72
spewier	Big blind		£0.20	£0.30	£17.53
	Your hole cards	J A
talker	Fold
shakinaces	Raise		£0.60	£0.90	£20.77
spewiest	Call		£0.60	£1.50	£32.90
villain	Call		£0.60	£2.10	£18.18
spew	Fold
spewier	Fold
Flop
		6 J 10
shakinaces	Bet		£1.58	£3.68	£19.19
spewiest	Call		£1.58	£5.26	£31.32
villain	Call		£1.58	£6.84	£16.60
Turn
		A
shakinaces	Bet		£4.80	£11.64	£14.39
spewiest	Call		£4.80	£16.44	£26.52
villain	All-in		£16.60	£33.04	£0.00
shakinaces	???

shakinaces

TL:DR do we stack off with top 2 if someone with a fairly nutted range raises us on the turn multiway?

benc

Isn't JJ and 1010 a bit too pessimistic when ranging villain here considering the pre flop action? even for a v nitty villain 10s/jjs gonna be in 3bet range majority of the time against an open and call on the button  so i'd be comfortable taking that out of villains range when running our equity or at least removing JJ as we also block it, can maybe add like q10ss and some ax spade hands as well although maybe too optimistic?  with that factored in and likelihood spewiest also calls with a much weaker range i'd be happy bet calling this spot.

If we are not happy with stacking off/think turn card really narrows villain range then check calling maybe a viable option with plans to c/c turn and then c/c c/f river based on how river changes board texture/whether we improve how the action goes,i'm not really a fan of that though as if the spade hits we might miss value against a nittier oppos weaker two pairs, so i think we have super solid reads that oppo is a mega nit before considering this line, but its better than having to bet fold turn.

shakinaces

Thanks for the reply Benc.

I'm loathe to assume TT-JJ are mandatory 3-bets at these levels if not vs a semi-decent reg at least, but get your point that it is for sure top of their calling range aka as pessimistic as it gets.

I'd potentially consider c/c HU against certain oppos, but in this spot my main thought is to build the pot vs the CO.  It feels like I'd have missed massive value if the turn gets checked through and I can only squeeze out another 4-6 quid on the river, so I have to bet turn in order to be able to shove all blank rivers.

I suppose the bet-sizing may be off to achieve that.  Can go smaller (like £3 - £3.60) and then if villain does shove there is scope to consider a fold or go bigger (£5.50 - £6.50) to deny draws the odds to call / make it a no brainer snap call if facing a shove?

raggy94

I think you need to include the price of your call when working out pot odds so scenario (a) required equity should be 26%.

I'd call at a generally spewy table fwiw.

CraigSG1

I think the only set you are against would be 6s. JJ/10s are raising pre most of the time, especially JJ and we also have the J blocker. And post flop I expect a set is raising here almost all the time with the very draw heavy board and multi way action. That leaves the only hand we lose to being KQ and that it is a very likely holding here. But there are a few hands we beat such as A10 and makes sense in how it played. Also AsXs.  I seriously doubt this is ever a bluff so now it's down to a read on how your opponent has played. 

grantorino

Easy call imo. All your optimistic range should be there, possibly minus a couple of set combos. He may also have some random combo spade draws. Can't see how you fold with pot odds, if your ahead fish may pay off as well