AINTREE DAY2 JACKPOT (FRI)

StayOrGo

Hi guys.

So Aintree Day2 Jackpot, just as a trial (needs to be too big a perm to do alone)

For the record we would NOT do this one in reality as it is TOO HARD (Many open races and big fields) and there is also not enough of a carry over. To achieve a 1 in 12 success rate we are ideally looking for a BIG carry over going onto a SMALL meeting with not too many runners.

With these big open fields it is impossible to cover 65%+ of the betting market in each leg without doing a massive perm at a prohibitive cost.

Hopefully that makes sense. :=)

This is just for fun and for us all to see how it will work, and for people to get used to the selection process for those that want to submit suggestions.

Was going to have MIGHT BITE (4/7) in the 2.50 as a banker. (Hoping he won't swerve across the track down the straight, or fall at the last)

I plan to have the three principles, River Wylde (9/4) , Mountain Mews (3/1) and Moon Racer (4/1) (unless he drifts) in the 2.20

But I need lots of suggestions however, for the following races:

1.40 -  Ideally nothing bigger than 25/1.

3.25 -  Ideally nothing bigger than 16/1.

4.05 -  Ideally nothing bigger than 25/1.

4.40 -  Ideally nothing bigger than 16/1.

Need at least 3 or 4 selections for each of the above races.

Any input much appreciated.

vaigret

For what its worth mine are
Crystal Lad 1.40 25-1 LOL nowhere
Fox Norton 3-1 3.25 4-1 winner
Gold Present 4.05 10-1 brought down
4.40 Debece 14-1

MISTY4ME

VERY TRUE with the difficulty of this. You could pick 6 and still miss out on the very first race..... but for what they're worth here's my selections, though you can check for other ideas in Brrrrrrr's NAP'S TABLE.....

1.40pm RATHER BE, DREAM BERRY, CRYSTAL LAD

3.25pm SUB LIEUTENANT, GOD'S OWN FOX NORTON

4.05pm AS DE MEE, EASTLAKE, GOLD PRESENT 

and its out of your price band but I think BRIGHT NEW DAWN (33/1) will run very well too

4.40pm WEST APPROACH, THE WORLD'S END CONSTANTINE BAY BEYOND CONCEIT

Hope these help a bit and run well 'coz I've backed a few of them

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: AINTREE DAY2 JACKPOT (FRI):

VERY TRUE with the difficulty of this. You could pick 6 and still miss out on the very first race..... but for what they're worth here's my selections, though you can check for other ideas in Brrrrrrr's NAP'S TABLE..... 1.40pm RATHER BE, DREAM BERRY, CRYSTAL LAD 3.25pm SUB LIEUTENANT, GOD'S OWN FOX NORTON 4.05pm AS DE MEE, EASTLAKE, GOLD PRESENT  and its out of your price band but I think BRIGHT NEW DAWN (33/1) will run very well t oo 4.40pm WEST APPROACH, THE WORLD'S END CONSTANTINE BAY BEYOND CONCEIT Hope these help a bit and run well 'coz I've backed a few of them
Posted by MISTY4ME

Thanks for this Mist.

You are quite right of course, we absolutely would not do this Jackpot in reality, just a fun/useful exercise to see how it will all work, and to get people used to it and hopefully engage people's enthusiasm for the process.

Well done on the naps table. showing a profit I see. We lost our money on Top Notch, hope you didn't back it just because of me. :=(

Phantom66

I like Mr Diablo for the 4.05.

(If it doesn't win then I will assume the others were colluding)

MISTY4ME

In Response to Re: AINTREE DAY2 JACKPOT (FRI):

In Response to Re: AINTREE DAY2 JACKPOT (FRI) : Thanks for this Mist. You are quite right of course, we absolutely would not do this Jackpot in reality, just a fun/useful exercise to see how it will all work, and to get people used to the process. Well done on the naps table. showing a profit I see. We lost our money on Top Notch, hope you didn't back it just because of me. :=(
Posted by StayOrGo

Yeh it's great to see how it works in practice, and there could be a Rollover for Saturday looking at the races tomorrow.

I had already done TOP NOTCH the night before, as soon as I saw what I thought was such a good offer. I didn't think he would finish out of the first two tbh. He just ran a shade flat imo which a few Cheltenham horses will always do at Aintree, and I was even more gutted 'coz I backed FLYING ANGEL e/w at Cheltenham having followed him from last year, including backing him at 9/1 (SP 7/2) at Warwick.

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: AINTREE DAY2 JACKPOT (FRI):

In Response to Re: AINTREE DAY2 JACKPOT (FRI) : Yeh it's great to see how it works in practice, and there could be a Rollover for Saturday looking at the races tomorrow. I had already done TOP NOTCH the night before, as soon as I saw what I thought was such a good offer. I didn't think he would finish out of the first two tbh. He just ran a shade flat imo which a few Cheltenham horses will always do at Aintree, and I was even more gutted 'coz I backed FLYING ANGEL e/w at Cheltenham having followed him from last year, including backing him at 9/1 (SP 7/2) at Warwick.
Posted by MISTY4ME

What we want is a roll over Fri, another roll over Saturday and then the Jackpot on Sunday at a nice small meeting with racecards with much fewer runners.

Sunday Jackpot would either be MARKET RASEN or FLOS LAS, not sure which yet.

Now that would be the ideal type of scenario for the syndicate, and it could well happen. :=)

We'd have to do a "serious" trial, if that does prove to be the case.

I would fancy our chances with smaller fields and a big perm, but to make it pay, we'd need a juicy roll over too.

wynne1938

Here are my Jackpot selections for Friday

1.40 North Hill Harvey

       Dashing Oscar

      Zubayr

      Thomas Campbell

2.20 River Wylde

       The Unit

2,50 Might Bite

3.25 Uxizander

       Gods Own

       Sub Lieutenent

4,05 Alechi Inois

       Eastlake

       Irish Cavalier

       As De Mee

      Henryville

      Go Conquer

4.40 Constantines Bay

       The Worlds End

288 bets

I have just done this for a 10p stake as an accumalator with Bet fair

wynne1938

Placed	Description	Odds	Stake (£)	Pot. Return (£)	Status
06-Apr-17 22:51:14	6 Folds (x288) 12:40 ALDER HEY HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 4f, 12:40 ALDER HEY HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 4f Betfair Bet ID O/0786566/0000597		28.80	51,068.16	Open
	12:40 ALDER HEY HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 4f North Hill Harvey - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 12	--	--	Open
	12:40 ALDER HEY HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 4f Zubayr - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 19	--	--	Open
	12:40 ALDER HEY HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 4f Dashing Oscar - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 19	--	--	Open
	12:40 ALDER HEY HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 4f Thomas Campbell - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 10	--	--	Open
	13:20 TOP NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 103y River Wylde - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 3.25	--	--	Open
	13:20 TOP NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 103y The Unit - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 15	--	--	Open
	13:50 MIDWAY NOVICES' CHASE 3m 210y Might Bite - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 1.61	--	--	Open
	14:25 MELLING CHASE 2m 3f 200y God's Own - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 4	--	--	Open
	14:25 MELLING CHASE 2m 3f 200y Uxizandre - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 8.5	--	--	Open
	14:25 MELLING CHASE 2m 3f 200y Sub Lieutenant - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 4	--	--	Open
	15:05 TOPHAM HANDICAP CHASE 2m 5f 19y Eastlake - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 19	--	--	Open
	15:05 TOPHAM HANDICAP CHASE 2m 5f 19y As De Mee - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 11	--	--	Open
	15:05 TOPHAM HANDICAP CHASE 2m 5f 19y Henryville - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 15	--	--	Open
	15:05 TOPHAM HANDICAP CHASE 2m 5f 19y Alelchi Inois - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 29	--	--	Open
	15:05 TOPHAM HANDICAP CHASE 2m 5f 19y Go Conquer - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 9	--	--	Open
	15:05 TOPHAM HANDICAP CHASE 2m 5f 19y Irish Cavalier - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 29	--	--	Open
	15:40 SEFTON NOVICES' HURDLE 3m 149y The Worlds End - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 3.25	--	--	Open
	15:40 SEFTON NOVICES' HURDLE 3m 149y Constantine Bay - Win Best Odds Guaranteed	-- 4.5	--	--	Open

StayOrGo

OK, it needs a lot of whittling down and I will remove drifters tomorrow, and possibly add some springers. We will need to reduce the size of the perm considerably. Anyone else got any tips or want to vouch for/endorse/put their name alongside any particular horse?

I will have to start a "purge" tomorrow to bring down the perm size. I apologise in advance if I remove anyone's selection and it wins. :=)

These are the "short list" at this stage:

AINTREE JACKPOT FRIDAY (TRIAL - BUT VERY HARD, WOULDN'T ATTEMPT IT IN REALITY)

LEG 1:

1 - NORTH HILL HARVEY (11/1), (14/1)      (WYNNE)

5 - THOMAS CAMBELL (9/1), (9/1)             (WYNNE)

8 - GEORDIE DES CHAMPS (14/1), (12/1)

7 - RATHER BE (12/1), (12/1)                        (MISTY4ME)

16 - DREAM BERRY (10/1), (9/1)               (MISTY4ME)

4 - ZUBAYR (18/1), (18/1)                        (WYNNE)

21 - SKY KHAN (14/1), (14/1)

17 - DASHING OSCAR (18/1), (18/1)          (WYNNE)

14 - ICE COLD SOUL (12/1), (12/1)

22 - CRYSTAL LAD  (25/1), (22/1)               (VAIGRET AND MISTY4ME)

3 - RUNSWICK ROYAL (20/1), (20/1)

12 - BYRON FLYER (16/1), (16/1)

20 - SUMKINDOFKING (12/1), (12,1)

LEG 2:

8 - RIVER WYLDE (9/4), (2/1)

6 - MOUNT MEWS (11/4), (5/2)

5 - MOON RACER (4/1), (11/2)                 (REMOVE IF DRIFTS)

LEG 3:

3 - MIGHT BITE (4/7), (4/7)

LEG 4:

1 - FOX NORTON  (7/2), (4/1)                              (VAIGRET AND MISTY4ME)

2 - GOD'S OWN     (7/2), (7/2)                             (MISTY4ME AND WYNNE)

6 - SUB LIEUTENANT (7/2), (3/1)                        (MISTY4ME AND WYNNE)

9 - UXIZANDRE (8/1), (8/1)                                (WYNNE)

3 - JOSSES HILL (14/1), (14/1)

LEG 5:

11 - GOLD PRESENT (11/1), (11/1)                     (VAIGRET AND MISTY4ME)

3 - EASTLAKE (16/1), (16/1)                                (MISTY4ME AND WYNNE)

4 - O O SEVEN (20/1), (20/1)

9 - AS DE MEE (11/1), (10/1)                              (MISTY4ME AND WYNNE)

12 - MR DIABLO (20/1), (20/1)                           (PHANTOM66)

8 - BOUVREUIL (12/1), (12/1)   

19 - GO CONQUER (10/1), (9/1)                       (WYNNE)

15 - HENRYVILLE (12/1), (12/1)                         (WYNNE)

20 - SEEFOOD (10/1), (10/1)

LEG 6:

11 - THE WORLDS END (5/2), (5/2)               (MISTY4ME AND WYNNE) 

 3 - CONSTANTINE BAY (7/2), (4/1)              (MISTY4ME AND WYNNE)

12 - WEST APPROACH (11/2), (15/2)             (MISTY4ME)

4 - DEBECE (14/1), (12/1)                            (VAIGRET)

2 - BEYOND CONCEIT (16/1), (14/1)              (MISTY4ME)

7 - KEEPER HILL (14/1), (14/1)

9 - MOULIN A VENT (12/1), (12/1)

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: AINTREE DAY2 JACKPOT (FRI):

Here are my Jackpot selections for Friday 1.40 North Hill Harvey        Dashing Oscar       Zubayr       Thomas Campbell 2.20 River Wylde        The Unit 2,50 Might Bite 3.25 Uxizander        Gods Own        Sub Lieutenent 4,05 Alechi Inois        Eastlake        Irish Cavalier        As De Mee       Henryville       Go Conquer 4.40 Constantines Bay        The Worlds End 288 bets I have just done this for a 10p stake as an accumalator with Bet fair
Posted by wynne1938

Opps, just posted, but will add some of your choices, that we haven't selected and add your name to one's already shortlisted.

GL with the acca

UrABawBag2

looking  on with intrest.    all my picks  are  on your  list  so far,  hoping  henderson  has  a  good  day.

out of  work atm, but  job lined  up so will hopefully  join  up  at  a  later date.  

GL.

liking  the  type  of bet  you  have  done  wynne1938,  will  give  this a  go 1  day  infact  maybe  over  the  w/end  as  i just  won 60  quids worth of  free  bets  from poker  tournaments. 

chilling

In Response to Re: AINTREE DAY2 JACKPOT (FRI):

In Response to Re: AINTREE DAY2 JACKPOT (FRI) : What we want is a roll over Fri, another roll over Saturday and then the Jackpot on Sunday at a nice small meeting with racecards with much fewer runners. Sunday Jackpot would either be MARKET RASEN or FLOS LAS , not sure which yet. Now that would be the ideal type of scenario for the syndicate, and it could well happen. :=) We'd have to do a "serious" trial, if that does prove to be the case. I would fancy our chances with smaller fields and a big perm, but to make it pay, we'd need a juicy roll over too.
Posted by StayOrGo

Indeed, i might have a pop on Sunday if there's a juicy rollover.The first six months of possibly jackpot attempts will be at flat meetings?

I personally think prices are irrelevant , as SP guides are plucked out of the air.If you are having a few selections in a certain race, id rather include one or two that could bounce back into form, than 3or 4 that have the recent form but are now handicapped to the hilt.In my years of betting, a lot of the plots are landed in the last race on a card.That could be irrelevant though, as flat meetings these days often have 8 or more races.

20-1 in the morning could be anything come race time.In NH racing, the horses tend to have less outings compared to the flat horses, which may mean you need to have a sprint handicap specialist on board, as some run sooo often.Btw, thats not me.

StayOrGo

Hi all.

I have added the price changes of our selections as of 11AM.

At 1PM, I will add further price changes. I will then highlight in BOLD our "would be" selections. Anything not in bold would be reluctantly omitted.

As I said previously, today's line up is very hard, too competitive for us to consider doing in reality, but a useful exercise for how the process will work.

Cheers,

G

jordz16

Agreed with Phantom that Mr Diablo is well over-priced currently

MAXALLY

My fun one for today. Doubled my lines to 36....so costing £18 this time.

Hawk High - Pool Betting - Clone Race of Aintree Race 1 
Rather Be - Pool Betting - Clone Race of Aintree Race 1 

Mount Mews - Pool Betting - Clone Race of Aintree Race 2 

Might Bite - Pool Betting - Clone Race of Aintree Race 3 

God's Own - Pool Betting - Clone Race of Aintree Race 4 
Traffic Fluide - Pool Betting - Clone Race of Aintree Race 4 

O O Seven - Pool Betting - Clone Race of Aintree Race 5 
As De Mee - Pool Betting - Clone Race of Aintree Race 5 
Mr Diablo - Pool Betting - Clone Race of Aintree Race 5 

The Worlds End - Pool Betting - Clone Race of Aintree Race 6 
Constantine Bay - Pool Betting - Clone Race of Aintree Race 6 
Get On The Yager - Pool Betting - Clone Race of Aintree Race 6

MICKYBLUE

race 1 ZUBAYR

         DREAM BERRY

race 2 MOUNT MEWS

race 3 MIGHT BITE

race 4 GODS OWN

race 5 GOLD PRESENT

         MR DIABLO

         BALLYKAN (E.W value IMO)

race 6 THE WORLDS END

i only did placepots as today as already said looks a nightmare for punters.

im interested in joining this and will have a read up of rules etc once finished putting bets on.

micky

StayOrGo

OK, our would be perm is below:
 
Selections highlighted in blue only, based on market move and under-representation in the pool:

 

DATE	Friday	07/04/2017	AINTREE
LEG/TIME	HORSE	R-POST ODDS	OV NIGHT	MORN	LATEST
1.40PM	01- NORTH HILL HARVEY	10/1	11/1	14/1	10/1
1.40PM	04 – ZUBAYR	20/1	18/1	18/1	16/1
1.40PM	03 – RUNSWICK ROYAL	25/1	20/1	20/1	25/1
1.40PM	05 – THOMAS CAMBEL	8/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
1.40PM	06 – HAWK HIGH	16/1	18/1	18/1	18/1
1.40PM	07 – RATHER BE	9/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
1.40PM	08 – GEORDIE DES CHAMPS	12/1	14/1	12/1	12/1
1.40PM	12 – BYRON FLYER	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
1.40PM	14 – ICE COLD SOUL	10/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
1.40PM	16 – DREAM BERRY	12/1	10/1	9/1	17/2
1.40PM	17 – DASHING OSCAR	16/1	18/1	18/1	18/1
1.40PM	20 – SUMKINDOFKING	14/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
1.40PM	21 – SKY KHAN	14/1	14/1	14/1	16/1
1.40PM	22 – CRYSTAL LAD	20/1	25/1	22/1	20/1
2.20PM	8 – RIVER WYLDE	2/1	9/4	2/1	2/1
2.20PM	6 – MONUTAIN MEWS	5/2	3/1	5/2	5/2
2.20PM	5 – MOON RACER	7/2	4/1	11/2	11/2
2.50PM	3 – MIGHT BITE	8/15	4/7	4/7	4/7
3.20PM	1 – FOX NORTON	3/1	7/2	4/1	4/1
3.20PM	2 – GOD'S OWN	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
3.20PM	6 – SUB LIEUTENANT	3/1	7/2	3/1	7/2
3.20PM	9 – UXIZANDRE	7/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
4.05PM	3 – EASTLAKE	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
4.05PM	4 – OO SEVEN	16/1	20/1	20/1	22/1
4.05PM	8 – BOUVREUIL	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
4.05PM	9 – AS DE MEE	10/1	11/1	10/1	10/1
4.05PM	11 – GOLD PRESENT	10/1	11/1	11/1	11/1
4.05PM	12 – MR DIABLO	16/1	20/1	20/1	20/1
4.05PM	15 – HENRTVILLE	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
4.05PM	19 – GO CONQUER	8/1	10/1	9/1	9/1
4.05PM	20 – SEEFOOD	9/1	10/1	10/1	11/1
4.40PM	2 – BEYOND CONCEIT	12/1	16/1	14/1	12/1
4.40PM	3 – CONSTANTINE WAY	3/1	7/2	4/1	7/2
4.40PM	4 – DEBECE	12/1	14/1	12/1	12/1
4.40PM	7 – KEEPER HILL	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
4.40PM	11 – THE WORLDS END	9/4	5/2	5/2	11/4
4.40PM	12 – WEST APPROACH	9/2	11/2	15/2	7/1

I may amend one in the first based on last minute market movers. (P.S. Can we pretend I highlighted Rather Be before the off: (Being one of Misty's and MAXALLY's picks, and I didn't notice MAXALLY's until late). N1 guys!

wynne1938

Bet Confirmation - HD2549391230I - Internet   Time of bet: 07/04/2017 13:03:42

Jackpot - 07/04/2017

Leg	Selection	Race	Place Terms	Result
1	North Hill Harvey (1)	1.40 Aintree (Race 1)	Win Only	To Run
	Dashing Oscar (17)			To Run
2	River Wylde (8)	2.20 Aintree (Race 2)	Win Only	To Run
3	Might Bite (3)	2.50 Aintree (Race 3)	Win Only	To Run
4	Uxizandre (9)	3.25 Aintree (Race 4)	Win Only	To Run
5	Alelchi Inois (1)	4.05 Aintree (Race 5)	Win Only	To Run
	Eastlake (3)			To Run
	As De Mee (9)			To Run
6	Constantine Bay (3)	4.40 Aintree (Race 6)	Win Only	To Run
	The Worlds End (11)			To Run

12 @ Unit Stake:  0.50   Total Stake:  6.00

StayOrGo

I have done the following PLACEPOT

Bet Confirmation Required

You have made the following selections. Please confirm to place bet.

Meeting:		Aintree
Your selections:		Leg 1:	13:40	Geordie Des Champs (8)
Leg 1:	13:40	Ice Cold Soul (14)
Leg 1:	13:40	Dream Berry (16)
Leg 1:	13:40	Sumkindofking (20)
Leg 2:	14:20	Mount Mews (6)
Leg 2:	14:20	River Wylde (8)
Leg 3:	14:50	Might Bite (3)
Leg 3:	14:50	Whisper (5)
Leg 3:	14:50	FAV
Leg 4:	15:25	God's Own (2)
Leg 4:	15:25	Sub Lieutenant (6)
Leg 5:	16:05	Bouvreuil (8)
Leg 5:	16:05	As De Mee (9)
Leg 5:	16:05	Henryville (15)
Leg 6:	16:40	Constantine Bay (3)
Leg 6:	16:40	The Worlds End (11)

show allhide

StayOrGo

Summary

Date	Description	Selection	Amount

Date	Bet Ref	W/P/S Stake	Bet Type	Event / Market	Selection	Hcp	Price	Result	Status	Total Stake	Return
07/04/17 1:39:24 PM	2754090/3013772		Placepot	13:40	8 - Geordie Des Champs	0		Open	O	£28.80	£0.00
				Aintree	14 - Ice Cold Soul	0		Open
				Aintree	16 - Dream Berry	0		Open
				Aintree	20 - Sumkindofking	0		Open
				Aintree	6 - Mount Mews	0		Open
				Aintree	8 - River Wylde	0		Open
				Aintree	F A V O U R I T E	0		Open
				Aintree	3 - Might Bite	0		Open
				Aintree	5 - Whisper	0		Open
				Aintree	2 - God's Own	0		Open
				Aintree	6 - Sub Lieutenant	0		Open
				Aintree	8 - Bouvreuil	0		Open
				Aintree	9 - As De Mee	0		Open
				Aintree	15 - Henryville	0		Open
				Aintree	3 - Constantine Bay	0		Open
				Aintree	11 - The Worlds End	0		Open