You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.
You might need to refresh your page afterwards.
JACKPOT TRIAL RUN AT FLOS LAS (SUNDAY 16TH APRIL 2017) FUN BUT SERIOUS COMPETITION. SELECT EIGHT HOR
StayOrGo
Member Posts: 12,181
Hi all.
Well there was a carry over of the Jackpot today, not much, just over £9K.
Whilst it would not be enough of a roll over to go for it for real, we will do a trial run, as Sunday's racing is A LOT LESS competitive than Saturday's.
No guarantee of success, but certainly a fighting chance.
The dynamic of the races at Flos Las would fit in well with our strategy, although obviously we'd need a bigger roll over.
But a good one to trial, as other than the small roll over, the racecards are a "good fit" for our approach.
Selections below. Our choices are in blue, the one's we have removed base on people's removal choices are in yellow. (We would not be on the horses in yellow, just the blue ones:
Cost of perm would be 960 lines at 50p = £480.00
Cost of perm would be 960 lines at 50p = £480.00
| DATE | Sunday | 16/04/2017 | FLOS LAS | ||
| LEG/TIME | HORSE | R-POST ODDS | OV NIGHT | MORN | LATEST |
| 1.55PM | 01- CHEQUE EN BLANC | 12/1 | 14/1 | 10/1 | 12/1 |
| 1.55PM | 02 – LE BRAYE | 5/1 | 9/2 | 9/2 | 9/2 |
| 1.55PM | 03 – BALDADASH | 5/1 | 7/1 | 8/1 | 9/1 |
| 1.55PM | 04 – BE SEEING YOU | 16/1 | 16/1 | 20/1 | 22/1 |
| 1.55PM | 05 – MR CAFFREY | 5/1 | 11/2 | 5/1 | 5/1 |
| 1.55PM | 06 – CHEVALGRIS | 7/1 | 11/1 | 10/1 | 9/1 |
| 1.55PM | 07 – THE KID | 4/1 | 5/2 | 3/1 | 9/2 |
| 1.55PM | 08 – PRINCE MAHLER | 4/1 | 7/2 | 6/1 | 9/2 |
| 1.55PM | 09 – ALLA SVELTA | 33/1 | 33/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 |
| 1.55PM | 10 – TIME FOR CHAMPERS | 66/1 | 50/1 | 66/1 | 80/1 |
| 2.25PM | 01 – SWEETLITTLEKITTY | 8/1 | 10/1 | 10/1 | 9/1 |
| 2.25PM | 02 – STEEL NATIVE | 2/1 | 11/4 | 10/3 | 11/4 |
| 2.25PM | 03 – LIME STREET | 8/1 | 12/1 | 10/1 | 17/2 |
| 2.25PM | 04 – COOLE CHARMER | 10/1 | 10/1 | 9/1 | 7/1 |
| 2.25PM | 05 – BHAKTI | 6/1 | 4/1 | 10/3 | 4/1 |
| 2.25PM | 06 – RAINBOW HAZE | NON | RUNNER | N/A | N/A |
| 2.25PM | 07 – MARBLE MIST | 16/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 | 18/1 |
| 2.25PM | 08 – ROCKY ELSOM | NON | RUNNER | N/A | N/A |
| 2.25PM | 09 – MIDNIGHT QUEEN | 33/1 | 25/1 | 25/1 | 22/1 |
| 2.25PM | 10 – GUITING POWER | 6/1 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 9/2 |
| 2.55PM | 01 – JENKINS | 1/3 | 2/7 | 1/3 | 3/10 |
| 2.55PM | 02 – PERUVIEN BLEU | 6/1 | 6/1 | 6/1 | 5/1 |
| 2.55PM | 03 – A BOLD MOVE | 8/1 | 8/1 | 8/1 | 8/1 |
| 2.55PM | 04 – BIG CHIP AND PIN | 16/1 | 25/1 | 25/1 | 28/1 |
| 2.55PM | 05 – BUBSY BURBRIDGE | 25/1 | 25/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 |
| 2.55PM | 06 – LOOKSABITLIKEBRYAN | 33/1 | 25/1 | 25/1 | 33/1 |
| 2.55PM | 07 – VIRGINIA CHICK | 50/1 | 66/1 | 66/1 | 80/1 |
| 2.55PM | 08 – TIMELY GIFT | 50/1 | 100/1 | 100/1 | 100/1 |
| 2.55PM | 09 – ALL DOLLED UP | 100/1 | 200/1 | 200/1 | 200/1 |
| 3.30PM | 01 – MAGUIRE'S GLEN | 6/1 | 8/1 | 9/1 | 12/1 |
| 3.30PM | 02 – SEVEN NATION ARMY | 12/1 | 14/1 | 18/1 | 20/1 |
| 3.30PM | 03 – RATIFY | NON | RUNNER | N/A | N/A |
| 3.30PM | 04 – HEADLY'S BRIDGE | 9/1 | 15/2 | 7/1 | 7/1 |
| 3.30PM | 05 – STAGE ONE | 3/1 | 11/4 | 11/4 | 11/4 |
| 3.30PM | 06 – LOOKS LIKE POWER | 6/1 | 7/1 | 7/1 | 13/2 |
| 3.30PM | 07 – BARTON ROSE | 8/1 | 17/2 | 17/2 | 9/1 |
| 3.30PM | 08 – COPPER BIRCH | 14/1 | 16/1 | 18/1 | 18/1 |
| 3.30PM | 09 – KINGSTON | 25/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 |
| 3.30PM | 10 – CHANKILLO | 16/1 | 16/1 | 20/1 | 20/1 |
| 3.30PM | 11 – KINGS CROSS | 14/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 |
| 3.30PM | 12 – CAWDOR HOUSE BERT | 8/1 | 9/1 | 17/2 | 9/1 |
| 4.05PM | 01 – LIKE THE SOUND | 3/1 | 10/3 | 7/2 | 7/2 |
| 4.05PM | 02 – LOUGH DERG FARMER | 6/4 | 11/8 | 6/4 | 6/4 |
| 4.05PM | 03 – BLUE RHYTHM | 50/1 | 66/1 | 80/1 | 80/1 |
| 4.05PM | 04 – CLONDAW RIGGER | 66/1 | 100/1 | 100/1 | 100/1 |
| 4.05PM | 05 – GRIFFINGTON | 50/1 | 66/1 | 80/1 | 100/1 |
| 4.05PM | 06 – PADDYS MOTORBIKE | 4/1 | 7/2 | 3/1 | 11/4 |
| 4.05PM | 07 – WOODFORT | 7/2 | 4/1 | 11/2 | 6/1 |
| 4.40PM | 01 – PHOBIAPHILIAC | 4/1 | 9/2 | 3/1 | 3/1 |
| 4.40PM | 02 – SIR MANGAN | 6/1 | 9/2 | 9/2 | 5/1 |
| 4.40PM | 03 – FORZA MILAN | NON | RUNNER | N/A | N/A |
| 4.40PM | 04 – HERE'S HERBIE | 12/1 | 12/1 | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 4.40PM | 05 – MAXANISI | 7/1 | 9/1 | 11/1 | 11/1 |
| 4.40PM | 06 – ALF 'N' DOR | 8/1 | 9/1 | 10/1 | 9/1 |
| 4.40PM | 07 – COUNT MERIBEL | 10/1 | 11/1 | 9/1 | 9/1 |
| 4.40PM | 08 – COOL SKY | 4/1 | 5/1 | 7/2 | 3/1 |
Cheers,
G
Comments
I have updated the opening post with a "first pass" for Flos Las.
This has been purely statistical based (to cover 70% or more of the betting market in each leg) without looking at a single piece of horse form (yet)
So it is not a case of which horses should we have IN our Jackpot. The question is the opposite:
Of those highlighted in BLUE, who can we leave out?
We need to get rid of about EIGHT HORSES for the perm to be about the right size, including AT LEAST THREE from the last race, where I have selected all of them.
So, my question for you form studier's, is simple:
GIVE ME EIGHT I CAN OMIT
Who is prepared to put their head on the parapet and potentially remove a horse that costs us the hypothetical Jackpot.
I have already done the shortlist, so if something wins that is not on there, you can blame me. I may add a springer or two back in later :=)
This is ABSOLUTELY the sort of situation I expect us to be in when we "GO LIVE" so if you want to be actively involved in horse selection after GO-LIVE, it would be good if you could contribute to this task today.
Please post your suggested "removals" no later than 1.30PM.
Cheers,
G
Successfully remove a 5/1 shot or less (5 points)
Successfully remove a 11/2 to 15/2 shot (4 points)
Successfully remove a 8/1 to 11/1 shot (3 points)
Successfully remove an 12/1 shot or bigger (2 points)
If your removal wins at 12/1 or bigger (minus 10 points)
If your removal wins at 8/1 to 11/1 (minus 8 points)
If your removal wins at 11/2 to 15/2 (minus 6 points)
If your removal wins at 5/1 or less (minus 5 points)
We will keep track of the AVERAGE points per horse, per person, so we know who to listen to at go live. I may amend the points scoring system if it proves not to be optimal.
I will also compete in this task.
Please note, suggested removals, MUST, be currently highlighted in BLUE on the opening post.
Can every person competing/contributing in this, please post their EIGHT horses prior to 1.00PM.
We will keep a league table from now on, in all trial runs and then a new league table will start at go-live.
The price used to determine the points will be that in "THE LATEST" column, as this is the best info available at the time the JACKPOT is placed.
This is a fun, but also serious comp, if we can get the "best candidates" for selecting horses to remove, it will greatly assist our chances of winning when we do it for real.
Cheers,
G