JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017. NOT ONLY WOULD WE HAVE WON IT, BUT WE'D HAVE BEEN THE ONLY

StayOrGo

Hi, if anyone spots where the Jackpot is tomorrow, please post it on here.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

Potentially same gig as today, we'll pretend there is a roll over. :=)

StayOrGo

Hi Roger, I am going to try for an early night tonight.

If you are around and have time, do you think you could prep the spreadsheet for tomorrow's Jackpot?

I will then update it at about 10.15AM and people will have two hours to pick their "REMOVALS". no later than 12.15PM

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

With the Jackpot being won today, they usually guarantee the Jackpot Pool at either £5K or £10K, so they will definately be trying to pick the most competitive meeting.

Which to me looks like Fakenham.

It ould be nice if it was Huntingdon (My local track, 5 minutes from my house) or Southwell as they are "easier", but Fakenham is by no means impossible.

So my money is on Fakenham, but I haven't seen anything official yet.

GL.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

After today there will be no trial runs for a few days, unless someone else wants to do it, as I am away until the weekend.

StayOrGo

Hi Roger, I just sent you an email.

Do you know where the Jackpot is yet?

I can't see it anywhere.

StayOrGo

Opps, wasn't looking properly, there is Chepstow, Redcar and Market Rasen too.

StayOrGo

And Fairyhouse, but I don't think they have it on the Irish meeting.

zadoc

  Hi Graham,

 

  Have just been on Live Chat and was told Jackpot meeting tomorrow is REDCAR.

  Roger

StayOrGo

It has to be RECDAR doesn't it!

 

Tough card and I'm only guessing

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017:

  Hi Graham,     Have just been on Live Chat and was told Jackpot meeting tomorrow is REDCAR.   Roger
Posted by zadoc

LOL, I just figured that, quite a lot of runners and competitive, so we would swerve it in reality, are you still Ok to do it?

Mainly for the removals exercise. Meanwhile I will pick up the drawbias data.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

OK, so it is Redcar on the flat.

The going is Good To Firm.

Interesting draw bias stats. Summary below from drawbias.com:

FIVE FURLONGS:

Conclusions

A definite bias favouring low drawn runners. The bias seems to be greater in small fields for some reason.

SIX FURLONGS:

Conclusions

The six furlong races at Redcar are run over the same straight course as the five furlong races, however although there is a bias towards low over five furlongs, the bias seems to be reversed over 6 furlongs at Redcar, with high slightly favoured. Which is hard to explain.

SEVEN FURLONGS:

Conclusions

Over seven furlongs at Redcar their does not appear to be any draw advantage at all.

EIGHT FURLONGS:

Conclusions

As with the seven furlongs at Redcar, there doesn't appear to be a draw bias over a mile at Redcar.

PACE ANALYSIS:

An interesting result here. The 5 furlong course definitely appears to favour front runners, however the further distance they go the more hold up horses are favoured, meaning that over a mile Redcar is one of the worst courses for front runners. All races up to a mile are run on a straight course, and it is generally harder to make all over a straight course, which makes the 5 furlong findings hard to understand.

In terms of the individual distances, shown below is how Redcar ranks :


5 Furlongs – 4th out of 31 courses
6 Furlongs – 11th out of 29 courses
7 Furlongs – 15th out of 24 courses
8 Furlongs – 27th out of 30 courses

END

MICKYBLUE

we wouldnt do the jackpot here so our trial run should be what would suit us imo it doesnt matter if tote select it or not.

ive not looked properly at races but redcar looks a nightmare. no banker for 1.

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017:

we wouldnt do the jackpot here so our trial run should be what would suit us imo it doesnt matter if tote select it or not. ive not looked properly at races but redcar looks a nightmare. no banker for 1.
Posted by MICKYBLUE

I take your point, but we'll still do REDCAR as a trial.

Obviously we wouldn't touch it with a barge pole in reality, but it will be interesting for the removals.

I am probably going to ask people to remove 10 horses this time.

Also, I think zadoc is working away on the spreadsheets as I write this. It will still be a useful exercise, and it wouldn't really count as a failure, as we know we wouldn't do it for real.

I think it is good practice to get people looking for horses that they think won't win. I am sure we will be in a situation in reality, at some time or another, when we have to "break down" open looking handicaps in a flat race.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017:

we wouldnt do the jackpot here so our trial run should be what would suit us imo it doesnt matter if tote select it or not. ive not looked properly at races but redcar looks a nightmare. no banker for 1.
Posted by MICKYBLUE

Hi Micky, I agree, anyone doing the Jackpot at Redcar today is just donating to the prize pool for the inevitable roll over.

However, I am going to do a big perm for myself for the placepot here using the selections that we come up with. I think the placepot will pay a minimum of £200 here, and possibly 4 figures.

So if we look at it in that way, it will be a very worthwhile task.

So who wants to help me with my placepot? :=)

wynne1938

My Selections Redcar

2.05 9 Kinloch Pride  9/2

       7 Carlton Frankie  7/2

       6 Kachess  11/1

2.35 7 Armandihan 7/2

       10 Ninepin Bowler 7/2

       9 Mellor Brook 8/1

3.10  6 Everything For You 11/8

        5 Belgravian  10/18

3.45 13 Laughton 5/1

       1 Wentworth Falls 5/1

4.20 8 Roller 10/3

4.55 13 El Principe 6/1

       16 Ad Vitam  11/1

wynne1938

I wii have a £20 share in your placepot if available

Night Night

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017:

I wii have a £20 share in your placepot if available Night Night
Posted by wynne1938

Hi Wynne, I can't really do shares in my Redcar Placepot as it could be awkward if others want to come in on it too, and it makes things "untidy" as far as the Jackpot Syndicate and audit trail is concerned.

I hope you understand. I just want to keep things "clean" and separate until go live, so any bets I do until then are just for me and others can do their own.

Sorry, but I just don't want to be in a situation where 4 or 5 members of the syndicate come in on something that others don't.

It could make things awkward.

Cheers,

Graham

P.S. I really hope you can give me your fifteen removals on the other thread.

wynne1938

In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017:

In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017 : Hi Wynne, I can't really do shares in my Redcar Placepot as it could be awkward if others want to come in on it too, and it makes things "untidy" as far as the Jackpot Syndicate and audit trail is concerned. I hope you understand. I just want to keep things "clean" and separate until go live, so any bets I do until then are just for me and others can do their own. Sorry, but I just don't want to be in a situation where 4 or 5 members of the syndicate come in on something that others don't. It could make things awkward. Cheers, Graham P.S. I really hope you ca

n give me your fifteen removals on the other thread.
Posted by StayOrGo

That is ok.

MICKYBLUE

wynne you going to do the jackpot losers mate?

wynne1938

Feeling Lucky