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FRIDAY 21ST APRIL 2017 NEWBURY JACKPOT. REMOVAL MEN PLEASE NOTE, EXTRA PROCESS ADDED. IF WE GET THE

StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
edited April 2017 in Sports & Betting Chat
Thanks to MKGUNNER, I can now confirm that the Jackpot meeting is at Newbury.

We wouldn't touch the JACKPOT with a barge pole here in reality, but a great card to do a Placepot using a similar strategy.

Recognising Vaigret's valid comments, I am not tying your hands quite so much this time:

PLEASE PICK A TOTAL OF TWELVE REMOVALS (FROM THE LIGHT BLUE), BUT AT LEAST ONE FROM EACH RACE. GL!

SELCTIONS BELOW, WE WOULD BE ON BLUE AND DARK BLUE: RESULTS ADDED:

 
2.00PM 5F – NB 01 - ADMIRAL SPICE 6 12/1 14/1 20/1 22/1
2.00PM 5F – NB 02 - EMBOUR 5 9/2 5/2 4/1 4/1 3RD
2.00PM 5F – NB 03 - GOLD TOWN 7 11/4 7/2 4/1 9/2 1ST
2.00PM 5F – NB 04 - HEADWAY 10 10/1 15/2 12/1 9/1 2ND
2.00PM 5F – NB 05 - JIM ROCKFORD 8 12/1 18/1 14/1 16/1
2.00PM 5F – NB 06 - MOTOWN MICK 2 12/1 20/1 22/1 22/1
2.00PM 5F – NB 07 - MYSAAN 9 12/1 20/1 50/1 50/1
2.00PM 5F – NB 08 - OWEN THE LAW 11 16/1 28/1 33/1 33/1
2.00PM 5F – NB 09 - QAARAAT 4 11/2 11/2 4/1 4/1
2.00PM 5F – NB 10 - SPOOF 1 8/1 12/1 5/1 7/1
2.00PM 5F – NB 11 - TONY SOPRANO 3 12/1 16/1 14/1 16/1








2.30PM 2m2f NB 01 - WARRIOR OF LIGHT 3 16/1 20/1 33/1 40/1
2.30PM 2m2f NB 02 - STAR RIDER 1 5/1 11/2 6/1 6/1
2.30PM 2m2f NB 03 – FARQUHAR 4 N/A NON RUN N/A
2.30PM 2m2f NB 04 - OCEANE 7 7/2 4/1 11/2 6/1
2.30PM 2m2f NB 05 - HAVANA BEAT 2 14/1 18/1 33/1 33/1
2.30PM 2m2f NB 06 - CHAMPAGNE CHAMP 9 7/1 9/1 11/2 6/1 2ND
2.30PM 2m2f NB 07 - GUARD OF HONOUR 8 10/1 10/1 16/1 16/1
2.30PM 2m2f NB 08 - RAINBOW DREAMER 5 3/1 5/2 5/2 11/4 1ST
2.30PM 2m2f NB 09 - SWASHBUCKLE 6 4/1 7/2 10/3 11/4 3RD








3.05PM 1m2f NB 01 - MATHS PRIZE 4 9/1 14/1 12/1 12/1
3.05PM 1m2f NB 02 - DUBAWI PRINCE 5 6/1 10/1 15/2 8/1
3.05PM 1m2f NB 03 - RAHEEN HOUSE 6 11/4 7/2 11/2 11/2 2ND
3.05PM 1m2f NB 04 - TEMPLE CHURCH 3 13/2 6/1 9/1 9/1
3.05PM 1m2f NB 05 - ENABLE 1 6/1 6/1 8/1 8/1
3.05PM 1m2f NB 06 - SHUTTER SPEED 2 7/4 5/4 11/10 11/10 1ST








3.40PM 1m2f NB 01 - CECILATOR 11 100/1 80/1 150/1 150/1
3.40PM 1m2f NB 02 - CUBSWIN 15 25/1 33/1 40/1 40/1
3.40PM 1m2f NB 03 - FASHION THEORY 1 9/2 13/2 8/1 15/2
3.40PM 1m2f NB 04 - FRESH FOX 9 100/1 100/1 125/1 150/1
3.40PM 1m2f NB 05 - GRACIOUS DIANA 2 7/1 9/1 5/1 5/1 1ST
3.40PM 1m2f NB 06 - HAREBELL 12 12/1 11/1 12/1 10/1
3.40PM 1m2f NB 07 - INCONCEIVABLE 6 14/1 16/1 16/1 16/1 3RD
3.40PM 1m2f NB 08 - MANY WATERS 8 8/1 10/1 14/1 14/1
3.40PM 1m2f NB 09 - MIRZAM 10 16/1 22/1 66/1 66/1
3.40PM 1m2f NB 10 - MISS LIGURIA 7 20/1 22/1 50/1 50/1
3.40PM 1m2f NB 11 - MORI 5 7/2 2/1 11/4 11/4
3.40PM 1m2f NB 12 - NAFAAYES 13 10/1 12/1 20/1 20/1
3.40PM 1m2f NB 13 - STAR ROCK 3 20/1 28/1 33/1 33/1 2ND
3.40PM 1m2f NB 14 - THE JEAN GENIE 4 7/2 7/2 4/1 9/2
3.40PM 1m2f NB 15 - ZEHRAH 14 14/1 14/1 28/1 28/1








4.10PM 7f NB 01 - BACCHUS 11 40/1 50/1 33/1 33/1 1ST
4.10PM 7f NB 02 - MUTAHAADY 8 40/1 NON RUN N/A
4.10PM 7f NB 03 - SOLOMAN'S BAY 3 6/1 8/1 12/1 11/1
4.10PM 7f NB 04 - OMRAN 13 7/1 6/1 17/2 15/2
4.10PM 7f NB 05 - CHESSMAN 15 9/4 7/4 7/4 13/8 2ND
4.10PM 7f NB 06 - STERLING SILVA 1 20/1 NON RUN N/A
4.10PM 7f NB 07 - GRAPHITE STORM 10 12/1 14/1 14/1 14/1
4.10PM 7f NB 08 - JULE IN THE CROWN 5 14/1 10/1 10/1 9/1
4.10PM 7f NB 09 - ABATEMENT 4 12/1 16/1 25/1 25/1
4.10PM 7f NB 10 - PIVOINE 2 7/1 17/2 12/1 12/1
4.10PM 7f NB 11 - WARRIOR'S SPIRIT 14 10/1 14/1 20/1 22/1
4.10PM 7f NB 12 - ZAMJAR 9 50/1 50/1 50/1 50/1
4.10PM 7f NB 13 - GLORY OF PARIS 12 20/1 28/1 33/1 33/1
4.10PM 7f NB 14 - WINNING WAYS 16 12/1 11/1 14/1 14/1 3RD
4.10PM 7f NB 15 - DARK DESTROYER 17 20/1 25/1 25/1 25/1
4.10PM 7f NB 16 - ESPRESSO FREDDO 7 50/1 50/1 100/1 100/1
4.10PM 7f NB 17 - INTIMATE ART 6 14/1 22/1 20/1 20/1








4.40PM 5f NB <font colo
«134

Comments

  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    How's things going with the spreasheet Zadoc?

    There are a lot of runners, I know.

    If you could give me a rough idea of when I can expect to receive it, so I know whether to stay up or not.

    Thanks again,

    Graham
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    Meanwhile here is the data for Newbury from drawbias.com.

    NEWBURY:

    Key Characteristics

    Newbury is a very wide racecourse with slight undulations, it’s a very fair galloping course. It has a straight course on which all races up to a mile are used.


    There doesn't appear to be any real bias a Newbury over 5 furlongs

    No significant bias exists over 6 furlongs at Newbury.   

    It is believed that a low draw is advantagous over 7 furlongs at Newbury, particularly in big fields as there is a sharp left hand turn into the straight soon after the start but the stats don't back this up. Their actually doesn't appear to be any real bias.

    There appears to be a slight bias favouring high drawn runners at Newbury over the straight mile, especially when their are 12 or less runners. However this is based on limited data. 

    They don't use the round mile very often at Newbury, preferring the straight mile so there is very little data to go on. However what little data there is suggests no bias. 







     


  • MICKYBLUEMICKYBLUE Member Posts: 2,035
    edited April 2017
    im at work tomorrow but will try 
    ill be on phone so if post comes out rubbish ill amend asap but will get selections in 
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    Thanks to Roger again for prepping this mammoth card!

    We wouldn't touch the JACKPOT with a barge pole here in reality, but a great card to do a Placepot using a similar strategy.

    Recognising Vaigret's valid comments, I am not tying your hands quite so much this time:

    PLEASE PICK A TOTAL OF TWELVE REMOVALS, BUT AT LEAST ONE FROM EACH RACE. GL!

    I may add market movers in DARK BLUE, but to be fair to all who put their selections out early, the DARK BLUE will be off limits as far as having them as a removal selection. So removals must come from the LIGHT BLUE.

    All selections 1 hour before 1st race please and amendments in RED CAPITALS up to 15 mins before the off of the 1st.

    It is VITAL to have last minute market info for the first race with them ALL being debutantes. My Placepot will be going on at the VERY last minute, and I recommend those doing a Placepot of their own do the same.

    Cheers,

    G

    Enjoy :=)
  • SnufferSnuffer Member Posts: 3,057
    edited April 2017
    2.00 NB: 03 - GOLD TOWN 11/4 JP -5PTS PP -5PTS

    2.30 NB: 06 - CHAMPAGNE CHAMP 17/2 JP 4PTS PP -6PTS
    2.30 NB: 05 - HAVANA BEAT 16/1 JP 0PTS PP 0PTS (NOT IN BLUE)

    3.05 NB: 04 - TEMPLE CHURCH 6/1 JP 3PTS PP 3PTS
    3.05 NB: 05 - ENABLE 5/1 JP 3PTS PP 3 PTS

    3.40 NB: 05 - GRACIOUS DIANA 8/1 JP -5PTS PP -5PTS
    3.40 NB: 06 - HAREBELL 8/1 JP 3PTS PP 3PTS
    3.40 NB: 11 - MORI 7/4 JP 5PTS PP 5PTS

    4.10 NB: 04 - OMRAM 11/2 JP 4PTS PP -6PTS
    4.10 NB: 10 - PIVOINE 8/1 JP 2PTS PP 2PTS
    4.10 NB: 14 - WINNING WAYS 11/1 JP 2PTS PP -10PTS

    4.40 NB: 06 -SOIE D ' LEAU 5/1 JP 4PTS PP 4PTS

    JACKPOT TOTAL: 20 POINTS    PLACEPOT TOTAL: -12 POINTS
    SNUFFER HAD 2 WINNERS AND 3 PLACES FROM 11 SELECTIONS
  • mkgunnermkgunner Member Posts: 3,032
    edited April 2017
    2.00 NB 09  QAARAAT  jp 5pts pp 5pts
    2.00 NB 04 HEADWAY  jp 3pts pp -8pts

    2.30 NB 09 SWASHBUCKLE jp 5pts pp -5pts
    2.30 NB 04 OCEANE  jp 4pts pp 4pts

    3.05 NB 03 RAHEEN HOUSE jp 4pts pp -6pts
    3.05 NB 04 TEMLE CHURCH  jp 3pts  pp 3pts

    3.40 NB 05 GRACIOUS DIANA jp -5pts pp -5pts
    3.40 NB 06 HAREBELL jp 3pts  pp 3pts

    4.10 NB 08 JULE IN THE CROWN jp 3pts pp 3pts
    4.10 NB 14 WINNING WAYS  jp 2pts pp -10pts
    4.10 NB 03 SOLOMON'S BAY jp 3pts pp 3pts

    4.40 NB 06 SOIE D'LEAU jp 4pts  pp 4pts

    jackpot 34pts placepot -9pts

    mkgunner had 1 winner and 4 placed horses from 12 selections

  • zadoczadoc Member Posts: 3,402
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: FRIDAY 21ST APRIL 2017 NEWBURY JACKPOT. MAKE REMOVAL SELECTIONS HERE:
    Thanks to Roger again for prepping this mammoth card! We wouldn't touch the JACKPOT with a barge pole here in reality, but a great card to do a Placepot using a similar strategy. Recognising Vaigret's valid comments, I am not tying your hands quite so much this time: PLEASE PICK A TOTAL OF TWELVE REMOVALS, BUT AT LEAST ONE FROM EACH RACE. GL! I may add market movers in DARK BLUE , but to be fair to all who put their selections out early, the DARK BLUE will be off limits as far as having them as a removal selection. So removals must come from the LIGHT BLUE . All selections 1 hour before 1st race please and amendments in RED CAPITALS up to 15 mins before the off of the 1st. It is VITAL to have last minute market info for the first race with them ALL being debutantes. My Placepot will be going on at the VERY last minute, and I recommend those doing a Placepot of their own do the same. Cheers, G Enjoy :=)
    Posted by StayOrGo


      Sorry guys have appointment today, won't be back while mid-afternoon.

      Good luck with Trial Run

      Roger
  • MICKYBLUEMICKYBLUE Member Posts: 2,035
    edited April 2017
    14.00 HEAD WAY                        JP 3PTS PP -8PTS

    14.30 CHAMPAGNE CHAMP            JP 4PTS PP -6PTS
                GUARD OF HONOUR        JP 2PTS PP 2PTS

    15.05 ENABLE                             JP 3PTS PP 3PTS
                RAHEEN HOUSE               JP 4PTS PP -6PTS
               TEMPLE CHURCH               JP 3PTS PP 3PTS

    15.40 HAREBELL                           JP 3PTS PP 3PTS
               GRACIOUS Dianna              JP -5PTS PP -5PTS
                Fashion Theory                  non runner
               many waters                      JP 2PTS PP 2PTS

    16.10 winning ways                         JP 2PTS PP -10PTS 

    16.40 bowson Fred                          JP 5PTS PP -5PTS


    JACKPOT POINTS   26PTS 

    PLACEPOT POINTS -27

    MICKY HAD 1 WINNER AND 5 OTHER HORSES PLACED FROM 11 HORSES SELECTED

    LEARNT A MASSIVE LESSON ASWELL.
    WHEN AT WORK DO NOT TRY SELECT 2 MANY HORSES. WHEN W GO FOR REAL IF IM WORKING DAYS THEN ILL LOOK AT MAX 2 RACES SO CAN GET PROPER SELECTIONS AND NOT RUSHED SELECTIONS
  • Phantom66Phantom66 Member Posts: 5,542
    edited April 2017
    Newbie question for the 3.05.

    Maths Prize is tipped up by SL preview of the day. It is an outsider in the betting and not on your shortlist. Looking at the numbers/description I can see why but it may be worth a second look?

    The newbie question is how come it is top weight but other horses have a higher rating?
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: FRIDAY 21ST APRIL 2017 NEWBURY JACKPOT. MAKE 12 REMOVAL SELECTIONS. MINIMUM OF ONE FROM EACH RACE.:
    Newbie question for the 3.05. Maths Prize is tipped up by SL preview of the day. It is an outsider in the betting and not on your shortlist. Looking at the numbers/description I can see why but it may be worth a second look? The newbie question is how come it is top weight but other horses have a higher rating?
    Posted by Phantom66


    As is the process with the strategy, when someone mentions one I have omitted.

    I have added MATHS PRIZE in DARK BLUE to be considered.

    Regarding weight it is not a handicap but a conditions race and as such weight is based on other factors, such as wins, sex, age etc. I am not sure of the criteria, but it is not just a straight weight for rating as in Handicaps.

    I am not an expert on this, but that's how I understand it.

    Cheers,

    G
  • wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,556
    edited April 2017
    Apologies,ran out of time.out for the day
  • wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,556
    edited April 2017
    Apologies,ran out of time.out for the day
  • MICKYBLUEMICKYBLUE Member Posts: 2,035
    edited April 2017
    15 mins to get your selections in people &#55357;&#56838;

    thanks phantom maths prize I wouldn't do as would use the fav as a banker but it's defo 1 for the shortlist.

    phantom have a go mate with the list. doesn't matter that your not paying imo

  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    STAYORGO'S REMOVAL SELECTIONS ARE:

    2.00 NB: 03 - GOLD TOWN 4/1                         JP -5PTS    PP - 5PTS
    2.00 NB: 04 - HEADWAY 12/1                           JP 3PTS     PP - 8PTS 

    2.30 NB: 04 - OCEANE 11/2                             JP 4PTS      PP 4PTS
    2.30 NB: 07 - GUARD OF HONOUR 16/1            JP 2PTS      PP 2PTS

    3.05 NB: 03 - RAHEEN HOUSE 11/2                  JP 4PTS      PP - 6PTS
    3.05 NB: 04 - TEMPLE CHURCH 9/1                  JP 3PTS      PP 3PTS

    3.40 NB: 01 - FASHION THEORY 8/1    (N/R)   JP 0PTS      PP  0PTS
    3.40 NB: 06 - HAREBELL 12/1                         JP 3PTS      PP   3PTS

    4.10 NB: 03 - SOLOMAN'S BAY 12/1                JP 3PTS     PP 3PTS
    4.10 NB: 10 - PIVOINE 12/1                           JP 2PTS     PP 2PTS
    4.10 NB: 14 - WINNING WAYS 14/1                JP 2PTS     PP -10 PTS

    4.40 NB: 08 - LADY MACAPA 8/1                    JP 4PTS      PP 4PTS

    STAYORGO JACKPOT POINTS:  25

    STAYORGO PLACEPOT POINTS:  -8

    STAYORGO HAD ONE WINNER AND THREE OTHER PLACED HORSES FROM 11 SELECTIONS

  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: FRIDAY 21ST APRIL 2017 NEWBURY JACKPOT. MAKE 12 REMOVAL SELECTIONS. MINIMUM OF ONE FROM EACH RACE.:
    2.00 NB: 03 - GOLD TOWN 11/4 2.30 NB: 06 - CHAMPAGNE CHAMP 17/2 2.30 NB: 05 - HAVANA BEAT 16/1 3.05 NB: 04 - TEMPLE CHURCH 6/1 3.05 NB: 05 - ENABLE 5/1 3.40 NB: 05 - GRACIOUS DIANA 8/1 3.40 NB: 06 - HAREBELL 8/1 3.40 NB: 11 - MORI 7/4 4.10 NB: 04 - OMRAM 11/2 4.10 NB: 10 - PIVOINE 8/1 4.10 NB: 14 - WINNING WAYS 11/1 4.40 NB: 08 - SOIE D ' LEAU 5/1
    Posted by Snuffer


    Hi Snuffer.

    Please note that Havana Beat is an invalid selection (not in light blue) and that Soie D'Leau is number 6 not 8.

    Cheers and GL,

    G
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    OK, I will post the removals just before the off.

    Generally if two people or more (of the 4 of us) wanted it removed, then I did, exceptions being CHAMPAGNE CHAMP 11/2 (2.30) AND GRACIOUS DIANA 5/1 (3.40), which I have left in, as there has been late market support for them.

    I have reluctantly left in the drifting MANY WATERS 14/1 (3.40) as only one person (MICKYBLUE) had it in his removals. The downside of leaving it in is that it increases out perm cost by 33.3% for only a 6% coverage of the betting market.

    Our banker is SHUTTER SPEED 11/10 (3.05PM), although in reality we only do the Jackpot if our "banker" is well odds on.

    Cheers,

    G
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    I am putting HEADWAY back in the 1st as there has been some money for it.
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    Spreadsheet on opening post has been updated with latest prices.
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    GOLDTOWN ADDED AS NOT DRIFTING MUCH
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited April 2017
    Here is my personal Placepot perm.
    Bet DetailsDate/TimeStakeReturn
    Embour (2)
    Qaaraat (9)
    Gold Town (3)
    Star Rider (2)
    Champagne Champ (6)
    Rainbow Dreamer (8)
    Swashbuckle (9)
    Shutter Speed (6)
    Favourite
    Dubawi Prince (2)
    Gracious Diana (5)
    Mori (11)
    The Jean Genie (14)
    Omran (4)
    Chessman (5)
    Jule In The Crown (8)
    Double Up (4)
    Bowson Fred (5)
    Soie D'leau (6)
    Tote Placepot, 972 bets * £0.10
    GL all!
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