have to go with Berkshire 1.50 after wittering on about him. ,As a two year old /early three the stable thought they had another Generous, yes that good, however colic and injuries has meant he has had limited campaign. Having said that when he is on he is very good. Now the bad news , not sure how good he is on bends most of his best performances on straight tracks and don't like Spencer. Over to you folks !!!!
2.25 Deauville but as I said yesterday when I do O.briens horses I put mockers on them
3.00 Muthawatheb
Wouldn't have Dahlik as banker in the kind of race he in but what do I know.
oh dear have to go with Berkshire 1.50 after wittering on about him. ,As a two year old /early three the stable thought they had another Generous, yes that good, however colic and injuries has meant he has had limited campaign. Having said that when he is on he is very good. Now the bad news , not sure how good he is on bends most of his best performances on straight tracks and don't like Spencer. Over to you folks !!!! 2.25 Deauville but as I said yesterday when I do O.briens horses I put mockers on them 3.00 Muthawatheb Wouldn't have Dahlik as banker in the kind of race he in but what do I know. Posted by vaigret
With your concerns over both potential "bankers", do you think we should abort?
dahlik as banker mate please share for me its a race where 1 or 2 unknowns can win im liking the look of channons MILTON ROAD and AUNTIE PAM milton road has a bad draw tho. still looking and market can help. but im pretty sure we going to have 2 odds on shots tomorrow. muthawatheb i have 2 in race but i was very tempted to nap this Posted by MICKYBLUE
Sorry mate, not sure what you mean by this statement?
It appears you suggest Dahlik as a banker and then contradict.
In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available. : With your concerns over both potential "bankers", do you think we should abort? Posted by StayOrGo
With your concerns over two potential bankers? I didn't know there were two Dahlik yes but what is other? I would have Deauville as banker if we go ahead not dahlik but just my opinion and don't don't go for pot just because I don't like him.
All I would repeat is that just because horses are odds on it doesn't mean they are definitely going to win. ok include Dahlik but I wouldn't have him as banker.
In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available. : Sorry mate, not sure what you mean by this statement? It appears you suggest Dahlik as a banker and then contradict. Confused.com? G :=) Posted by StayOrGo
I think "Dahlik as banker" is just the title of the post and he also has concerns re it but might be wrong.
In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available. : Sorry mate, not sure what you mean by this statement? It appears you suggest Dahlik as a banker and then contradict. Confused.com? G :=) Posted by StayOrGo
it was to vaigret mate sorry
i ment share his thoughts on why its risky, you beat my post
In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available. : With your concerns over two potential bankers? I didn't know there were two Dahlik yes but what is other? I would have Deauville as banker if we go ahead not dahlik but just my opinion and don't don't go for pot just because I don't like him. All I would repeat is that just because horses are odds on it doesn't mean they are definitely going to win. ok include Dahlik but I wouldn't have him as banker. Posted by vaigret
Yes indeed.
We have the statistician versus the form interpreter here, and statistically (in a vacuum), the shorter the price the better the chance.
The whole strategy is based on trying to cover 60%+ of the betting market in each leg, but we need one leg where we try to do this with just one horse. (Or get as close to it as we can)
So ideally we want a 4/6 shot or shorter to achieve this.
:=)
P.S. Regarding the other option as a "banker", Micky suggested Khairaat in the first. Your suggestion, Deauville may well win, but at 15/8 it would be only covering 31% of the betting market, and would be statistical suicide for our strategy, but I respect your opinion. It will definitely be in the perm, but with at least one other.
oh dear have to go with Berkshire 1.50 after wittering on about him. ,As a two year old /early three the stable thought they had another Generous, yes that good, however colic and injuries has meant he has had limited campaign. Having said that when he is on he is very good. Now the bad news , not sure how good he is on bends most of his best performances on straight tracks and don't like Spencer. Over to you folks !!!! 2.25 Deauville but as I said yesterday when I do O.briens horses I put mockers on them 3.00 Muthawatheb Wouldn't have Dahlik as banker in the kind of race he in but what do I know. Posted by vaigret
Hi Vaigret. Re whether in perm, re below:
Berkshire 1.50 (In perm if market support) Deauville 2.25 (Yes) Mathawatheb (Probably)
Disclaimer - I am new to this and not a member of the syndicate so I nearly didn't post but thought I would share my views anyhow on the point of contention re:Is Dahik a suitable banker. Feel free to disregard anything I say here.
I understand why you need an odds on banker (very well explained in the strategy thread)
I share Vaigret's concerns about Dahik. I struggle to see how any juvenile can be fair value at odds on in a 13 horse race on a course that is new to all and such a technical test with the added need for a good start out of the stalls. The notes on Dahik say it ran green on 1st run, so has to be a risk, of course it could also mean it has learned from that and will improve here.
I don't see much to strongly oppose it with either, but the field does contain 2 horses with form and draws inside in Auntie Pam and Dragons Tail and an interesting 1st time runner in Kat Ostrophic. 2 of those are fillies with the 5lb allowance too and on this min distance if they can get to the rail first I think that will be useful to have over the colts.
In short if I am making a single bet for value I wouldn't touch Dahik.
Of course if the market puts it at odds-on come lunch time then who am I to judge.
Disclaimer - I am new to this and not a member of the syndicate so I nearly didn't post but thought I would share my views anyhow on the point of contention re:Is Dahik a suitable banker. Feel free to disregard anything I say here. I understand why you need an odds on banker (very well explained in the strategy thread) I share Vaigret's concerns about Dahik. I struggle to see how any juvenile can be fair value at odds on in a 13 horse race on a course that is new to all and such a technical test with the added need for a good start out of the stalls. The notes on Dahik say it ran green on 1st run, so has to be a risk, of course it could also mean it has learned from that and will improve here. I don't see much to strongly oppose it with either, but the field does contain 2 horses with form and draws inside in Auntie Pam and Dragons Tail and an interesting 1st time runner in Kat Ostrophic. 2 of those are fillies with the 5lb allowance too and on this min distance if they can get to the rail first I think that will be useful to have over the colts. In short if I am making a single bet for value I wouldn't touch Dahik. Of course if the market puts it at odds-on come lunch time then who am I to judge. Posted by Phantom66
Thanks for your thoughts here Phantom.
So following on from Micky's suggestion about potentially having Khairaat in the first as a possible alternative banker to Dahik?
How do you feel about that?
I think if we can't find a banker that gets a general consensus then we should not attempt the perm, as the strategy requires a card with a solid banker, and these may not be solid enough. There are always going to be differences of opinion, but I'm not really getting a warm and fuzzy feeling over either banker.
Comments
have to go with Berkshire 1.50 after wittering on about him. ,As a two year old /early three the stable thought they had another Generous, yes that good, however colic and injuries has meant he has had limited campaign. Having said that when he is on he is very good. Now the bad news , not sure how good he is on bends most of his best performances on straight tracks and don't like Spencer. Over to you folks !!!!
2.25 Deauville but as I said yesterday when I do O.briens horses I put mockers on them
3.00 Muthawatheb
Wouldn't have Dahlik as banker in the kind of race he in but what do I know.
All I would repeat is that just because horses are odds on it doesn't mean they are definitely going to win. ok include Dahlik but I wouldn't have him as banker.
We have the statistician versus the form interpreter here, and statistically (in a vacuum), the shorter the price the better the chance.
The whole strategy is based on trying to cover 60%+ of the betting market in each leg, but we need one leg where we try to do this with just one horse. (Or get as close to it as we can)
So ideally we want a 4/6 shot or shorter to achieve this.
:=)
P.S. Regarding the other option as a "banker", Micky suggested Khairaat in the first. Your suggestion, Deauville may well win, but at 15/8 it would be only covering 31% of the betting market, and would be statistical suicide for our strategy, but I respect your opinion. It will definitely be in the perm, but with at least one other.
3.35 CUNCO (Probably will have this)
Berkshire 1.50 (In perm if market support)
Deauville 2.25 (Yes)
Mathawatheb (Probably)
Cheers,
G
So following on from Micky's suggestion about potentially having Khairaat in the first as a possible alternative banker to Dahik?
How do you feel about that?
I think if we can't find a banker that gets a general consensus then we should not attempt the perm, as the strategy requires a card with a solid banker, and these may not be solid enough. There are always going to be differences of opinion, but I'm not really getting a warm and fuzzy feeling over either banker.
So very interested in your thoughts on Khairaat.
Cheers,
G
I will create another thread later tonight for those that will be involved in the removals process.
So please ONLY PUT NAP SELECTIONS NOT REMOVALS here.
Cheers,
G
Does this "banker" float peoples boat better?
Of course, if one/both of the "bankers" win on Thurs, the rollover will probably be gone.
Decisions, decisions. :=)
Feel free to input.
G
P.S. As it is still up in the air if we go for it or not, either way, all three selections will count for the naps table.