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Horses for 15/5/17

wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,556
edited May 2017 in Sports & Betting Chat
Date  /  TimeBet TypeLegSortEvent/SelectionResultStakeReference
14 May 17 / 22:08 Super Heinz 1 Standard 2:00 Kempton  –  Win Ok Corral @ Guaranteed Price (8/13) – W £12.00O/19249635/0000105/F
2 Standard 2:10 Brighton  –  Win Golden Easter @ SP – P
3 Standard 5:20 Windsor  –  Win Highland Cradle @ Guaranteed Price (EVS) – L
4 Standard 5:40 Killarney  –  Win Arbre De Vie @ Guaranteed Price (10/11) – L
5 Standard 6:20 Windsor  –  Win Last Voyage @ Guaranteed Price (EVS) – W
6 Standard 6:30 Towcester  –  Win Seelateralligator @ Guaranteed Price (10/11) – L
7 Standard 8:00 Towcester  –  Win Bear's Affair @ Guaranteed Price (1/3) –
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  • wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,556
    edited May 2017
    Bet Details
    ReceiptO/10151841/0004379
    Bet placed at14/05/2017 22:19
    Bet TypeSuper Heinz
    Leg TypeEach Way
    Bet ChannelInternet
    Number of lines240
    Stake per line£0.10
    Total stake£24.00
    SettledN
    Selection Details
    Class/SportEvent Type EventMarketDateSelectionNotes
    Horse RacingBrighton15.50 Brighton            L            15/05/2017 15:50Diamond Bear @ 4.50 (Each Way: 1/4 for first 2 places.)
    Horse RacingKempton15.05 Kempton Win 15/05/2017 15:05Midnight Cowboy @ 4.00 (Each Way: 1/5 for first 3 places.)
    Horse RacingKempton16.40 Kempton            P           15/05/2017 16:40Spader @ 2.75 (Each Way: 1/5 for first 3 places.)
    Horse RacingWetherby16.30 Wetherby            L           15/05/2017 16:30Newt @ 2.62 (Each Way: 1/4 for first 2 places.)
    Horse RacingWindsor17.50 Windsor - Paying 4 Places Win 15/05/2017 17:50Crowned Eagle @ 3.00 (Each Way: 1/5 for first 4 places.)
    Horse RacingWindsor18.50 Windsor            L           15/05/2017 18:50Sparkalot @ 2.75 (Each Way: 1/5 for first 3 places.)
    Horse RacingKillarney18.10 Killarney            L           15/05/2017 18:10Miss Me Now @ 6.00 (Each Way: 1/4 for first 4 places.)
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  • wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,556
    edited May 2017
    Bet Details
    ReceiptO/10151841/0004380
    Bet placed at14/05/2017 23:11
    Bet Type6 Fold Accumulator(s)
    Bet ChannelInternet
    Number of lines240
    Stake per line£0.05
    Total stake£12.00
    SettledN
    Selection Details
    Class/SportEvent Type EventMarketDateSelectionNotes
    Horse RacingWetherby13.50 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 13:50Alwahsh @ 2.50
    Horse RacingWetherby13.50 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 13:50Dawaaleeb @ 4.50
    Horse RacingWetherby13.50 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 13:50Born To Be Alive @ 15.00
    Horse RacingWetherby13.50 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 13:50Pilgrim's Treasure @ 8.00
    Horse RacingWetherby13.50 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 13:50Powderhouse @ 6.00
    Horse RacingWetherby14.20 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 14:20Red Royalist @ 2.37
    Horse RacingWetherby14.50 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 14:50Tylery Wonder @ 5.00
    Horse RacingWetherby14.50 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 14:50Lucky Beggar @ 5.00
    Horse RacingWetherby15.25 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 15:25Zodiakos @ 6.00
    Horse RacingWetherby15.25 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 15:25Redvers @ 26.00
    Horse RacingWetherby15.25 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 15:25Like No Other @ 21.00
    Horse RacingWetherby15.25 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 15:25Kirkham @ 9.00
    Horse RacingWetherby16.00 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 16:00Fire Tree @ 5.00
    Horse RacingWetherby16.00 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 16:00Pivotman @ 11.00
    Horse RacingWetherby16.00 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 16:00Make On Madam @ 7.00
    Horse RacingWetherby16.30 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 16:30Newt @ 2.62
    Horse RacingWetherby16.30 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 16:30Costa Percy @ 9.00
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: Horses for 15/5/17:
    Bet Details Receipt O/10151841/0004380 Bet placed at 14/05/2017 23:11 Bet Type 6 Fold Accumulator(s) Bet Channel Internet Number of lines 240 Stake per line £0.05 Total stake £12.00 Settled N Selection Details Class/Sport Event Type Event Market Date Selection Notes Horse Racing Wetherby 13.50 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 13:50 Alwahsh @ 2.50 Horse Racing Wetherby 13.50 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 13:50 Dawaaleeb @ 4.50 Horse Racing Wetherby 13.50 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 13:50 Born To Be Alive @ 15.00 Horse Racing Wetherby 13.50 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 13:50 Pilgrim's Treasure @ 8.00 Horse Racing Wetherby 13.50 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 13:50 Powderhouse @ 6.00 Horse Racing Wetherby 14.20 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 14:20 Red Royalist @ 2.37 Horse Racing Wetherby 14.50 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 14:50 Tylery Wonder @ 5.00 Horse Racing Wetherby 14.50 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 14:50 Lucky Beggar @ 5.00 Horse Racing Wetherby 15.25 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 15:25 Zodiakos @ 6.00 Horse Racing Wetherby 15.25 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 15:25 Redvers @ 26.00 Horse Racing Wetherby 15.25 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 15:25 Like No Other @ 21.00 Horse Racing Wetherby 15.25 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 15:25 Kirkham @ 9.00 Horse Racing Wetherby 16.00 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 16:00 Fire Tree @ 5.00 Horse Racing Wetherby 16.00 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 16:00 Pivotman @ 11.00 Horse Racing Wetherby 16.00 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 16:00 Make On Madam @ 7.00 Horse Racing Wetherby 16.30 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 16:30 Newt @ 2.62 Horse Racing Wetherby 16.30 Wetherby Win 15/05/2017 16:30 Costa Percy @ 9.00
    Posted by wynne1938


    Hi Wynne. Following on from your PM. I am not sure if this is what you are asking me to do, however, at first glance the betting percentage you have covered in each legs is as follows (ball park figures)

    LEG1: 70% Chance of still being in after this leg: 70%
    LEG2: 38% Chance of still being in after this leg: 26.6%
    LEG3: 35% Chance of still being in after this leg: 9.31%
    LEG4: 25% Chance of still being in after this leg: 2.33%
    LEG5: 38% Chance of still being in after this leg: 0.88%
    LEG6: 40% Chance of still being in after this leg: 0.35%
     
    Statistically this gives you a 0.7 *0.38 * 0.35 * 0.25 * 0.38 * 0.4 = 0.35% chance of success, or in other words a 1 in 283 chance.

    This is just the statistics of course, which is my thing. Unfortunately unless you have wide coverage in all legs (50%+), the odds of success start to tumble down. GL though!

    Better to do as an accumulator (which you are), as an accumulator would almost certainly exceed any Jackpot dividend, plus, as you say, you can do it for 5p a line.

    Cheers,

    G
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  • wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,556
    edited May 2017
    Thanks graham,brilliant assesment
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited May 2017
    Just as a guide Wynne, as it is an over simplification.

    If you are succesful with 5p lines and the average SP below, it would pay as follows:

    AVERAGE SP/AMOUNT WON

    3/1 you'd win: £204.80
    4/1 you'd win: £781.25
    5/1 you'd win: £2,332.80
    7/1 you'd win: £13,107.20
    9/1 you'd win: £50,000.00
    12/1 you'd win: £241,340.45
    16/1 you'd win: £1,206,878.45 (Mine's a Carling if you do :=))

    GL! It's a long shot, but success would mean PARTY ON!

    Cheers,

    G
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited May 2017
    I hope you don't, but statistically the most likely place you bust is the 2nd or 3rd leg.

    But I hope you prove the statistics wrong.

    Cheers,

    G
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited May 2017
    From an individual LEG perspective your best coverage is in LEG 1 (70%) and worst coverage in LEG 4 (25%)
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  • wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,556
    edited May 2017
    Thanks for your comments
    GOOD night
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited May 2017
    Mine for today


    BRIGHTON
    2.40 Whitecrest  7-2 WINNER 5-1
    3.15 ONE BIG SURPRISE 2-1 LOSER
    3.50 DIAMOND BEAR 11-4 4th ,

    WINDSOR
    6.50 aLKHOR 13-2 3rd and another 33-1 winner arrives. tough day

    WETHERBY
    2.50 LYDIAS PLACE NR
    3.25 SLEMY 14-1 JUST DAWDLED AT THE BACK
    4.00 CAMBODIA 33-1 this was a strange one. Backed in from 33-1 to 12-1 then got fractious in stalls and fell out of them at the off. Last. Look out for future
    5.00 OUTLAW TORN 14-1 16-1 and backed EW 3rd
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