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RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY)

StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
edited May 2017 in Sports & Betting Chat
FYI,

I tend to keep track of all of the TOTE MULTI-RACE POOLS.

The RPTV DOGS Jackpot is becoming interesting. See below:
DATE POOL NAME AMOUNT CARRY OVER TO




18/05/17 RPTV BELLE VUE £2,853.00 RPTV SUNDERLAND 19/05/17
17/05/17 RPTV PETERBOROUGH £2,641.00 RPTV 18/05/17
16/05/17 RPTV TOWCESTER £2,597.00 RPTV 16/05/17
15/05/17 RPTV HARLOW £2,501.00 RPTV 16/05/17
14/05/17 RPTV ? £2,169.00 RPTV 15/05/17
13/05/17 RPTV ? ? RPTV 14/05/17
12/05/17 RPTV BELLE VUE £1,902.00 RPTV 13/05/17
11/05/17 RPTV BELLE VUE £1,832.00 RPTV 12/05/17
09/05/17 RPTV TOWCESTER £1,559.00 RPTV 10/05/17
08/05/17 RPTV HARLOW £1,505.00 RPTV TOWCESTER 09/05/17
07/05/17 RPTV HENLOW £1,389.00 RPTV HARLOW 08/05/17
06/05/17 RPTV SHAWFIELD £1,222.00 RPTV HENLOW 07/05/17
05/05/17 RPTV SUNDERLAND £887.00 RPTV SHAWFIELD 06/05/17
04/05/17 RPTV BELLE VUE £840.00 RPTV SUNDERLAND 05/05/17
03/05/17 RPTV PETERBOROUGH £790.00 RPTV BELLE VUE 04/05/17
02/05/17 RPTV TOWCESTER £710.00 RPTV PETERBOROUGH 03/05/17
30/04/17 RPTV JACKPOT HENLOW £657.00 RPTV TOWCESTER 02/05/17
29/04/17 RPTV JACKPOT SHAWFIELD £1,136.00 RPTV HENLOW 30/04/17
Please note, at this stage I am NOT suggesting we do the DOGS, but if we were to have a crack at it, my selections would be as follows:

7.54 Sunderland: 6,5
8.11 Sunderland: 6,1
8.27 Sunderland: 1,3,5
8.44 Sunderland: 1,6,4
9.00 Sunderland: 6,5,3,2
9.16 Sunderland: 2,6

Above perm would cost £144 (288 lines at 50p)

If we have any greyhound guru's, I would appreciate feedback and potentials additions, removals.

The "beauty" of a big Greyhound Jackpot roll over is that there are only 6 runners in each race. The downside, of course, is the unpredictability of Dog Racing.

As a statistical exercise it is often achievable to cover 60%+ of the betting percentage in each leg, without the perm size getting too out of control.

Cheers,

G

P.S. My thoughts on the selections above, is that we'd get it one in 12 times, and win £1,500+ when we do (Almost certainly would get a full 50p share if won) So it is not really +ev atm, but could be with a bigger roll over. This is just an example for when/if the rollover becomes /> £4K
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Comments

  • mkgunnermkgunner Member Posts: 3,032
    edited May 2017
    i'll have a look though card and put up my picks for the races,used to love the dogs,owned a few back when milton keynes was open.
  • mkgunnermkgunner Member Posts: 3,032
    edited May 2017
    7.54  6-1-5 void race
    8.11  1-3-4 result 6-1-3
    8.27  3-5-1 result 1-3-5
    8.44  4-1-6 result 4-1-6
    9.00  6-5-2 result 1-6-3
    9.16  6-3-2 result 5-6-1

  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY):
    7.54  6-1-5 8.11  1-3-4 8.27  3-5-1 8.44  4-1-6 9.00  6-5-2 9.16  6-3-2
    Posted by mkgunner
    Thanks MK.

    I take it these are ordered in your preference.

    If not, could you please, as that will be a key factor in what selections are used for the trial.

    Cheers,

    G

    P.S. Also your current perm would cost £364.50 (729 lines at 50p) so can you remove a couple please to get it down to the same, or similar, total perm cost as mine.
  • mkgunnermkgunner Member Posts: 3,032
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY):
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY) : Thanks MK. I take it these are ordered in your preference. If not, could you please, as that will be a key factor in what selections are used for the trial. Cheers, G P.S. Also your current perm would cost £364.50 (729 lines at 50p) so can you remove a couple please to get it down to the same, or similar, total perm cost as mine.
    Posted by StayOrGo
    in order for each race, win forecast and tricast
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY):
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY) : in order for each race, win forecast and tricast
    Posted by mkgunner
    OK, you need to lose two selections.

    Which two races can I remove your 3rd choice?

    Cheers,

    G
  • mkgunnermkgunner Member Posts: 3,032
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY):
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY) : in order for each race, win forecast and tricast
    Posted by mkgunner
    for perm i would remove trap 6 in the 8.44 and trap 2 in 9.00
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY):
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY) : for perm i would remove trap 6 in the 8.44 and trap 2 in 9.00
    Posted by mkgunner
    OK, I will leave our respective perms as they are, and we'll see how we each would have done.

    GL!
  • mkgunnermkgunner Member Posts: 3,032
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY):
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY) : OK, I will leave our respective perms as they are, and we'll see how we each would have done. GL!
    Posted by StayOrGo
    u2 m8 good luck
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited May 2017
    Removing those two from your perm, means your "would be" perm cost is now down to £162.00

    So 6 or 5 for me in the first and you have 6, 5 or 1.

    It's a staggered start Handicap of course.

    I tend to think in these handicaps that the 6 and 5 dogs are more likely to make up the ground when rain has softened track, as they tend to finish more strung out normally, we'll see. It will be fun to follow anyway. :=)

    G
  • mkgunnermkgunner Member Posts: 3,032
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY):
    Removing those two from your perm, means your "would be" perm cost is now down to £162.00
    Posted by StayOrGo
    big difference just for 2 dogs
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY):
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY) : big difference just for 2 dogs
    Posted by mkgunner
    Yeh, that's why removals and additions are tough choices.

    Your first perm was 3*3*3*3*3*3 * 50p = £364.50

    Your second perm is: 3*3*3*3*2*2 * 50p = £162.00

    If people ask me to add a selection to a race where we have two runners in. That addition alone increases the cost by 50%, which is why people must understand if I can't put everyone's choices in.

    Cheers,

    G
  • mkgunnermkgunner Member Posts: 3,032
    edited May 2017

     a few years back when i was into greyhound, sunderland was always known for the track favouring outside runners,not sure about now though as not been following it for a few years

  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY):
     a few years back when i was into greyhound, sunderland was always known for the track favouring outside runners,not sure about now though as not been following it for a few years
    Posted by mkgunner
    Funnily enough I have. This is some data from 2013/2014.
    SUND SLOW SUND NORMAL SUND FAST
    8.5 47 5
    9 42 4
    11.5 54 9
    11 49 6
    14 35 6
    11 47 6
    Above is number of winners from varying ground conditions. (Data sample too small though, didn't complete exercise)

    P.S. 0.5 is for a dead heat

    P.P.S. I did this for all tracks, although as I said, need more data for it to be meaningful.
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited May 2017
    I originally did the above to try and get an edge with Trap Challenge bets. (Trap to win the most races at a particular meeting, but I didn't sustain the effort)
  • mkgunnermkgunner Member Posts: 3,032
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY):
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY) : Funnily enough I have. This is some data from 2013/2014. SUND SLOW SUND NORMAL SUND FAST 8.5 47 5 9 42 4 11.5 54 9 11 49 6 14 35 6 11 47 6 Above is number of winners from varying ground conditions. (Data sample too small though, didn't complete exercise) P.S. 0.5 is for a dead heat P.P.S. I did this for all tracks, although as I said, need more data for it to be meaningful.
    Posted by StayOrGo
    ah cool,i had greyhounds from around 1998-2006,once milton keynes closed down in 2005 i think, then took dogs to henlow for about a year but did not like it there tbh so gave it all up and stop following the dogs.walthamstow was my fav track and always was a good night out up there. 
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited May 2017
    I actually decided to do a real perm (just for myself)

    To reduce costs, just had two in the 5th and a banker in the 6th.

    7.54 Sunderland: 6,5
    8.11 Sunderland: 6,1
    8.27 Sunderland: 1,3,5
    8.44 Sunderland: 1,6,4
    9.00 Sunderland: 6,5
    9.16 Sunderland: 6

    Perm cost: £36.00

    NB: THIS IS NOT A SYNDICATE BET
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited May 2017
    1st Leg 7.54pm abandoned for some reason (didn't watch it)

    So on it for the full £1 now.
  • mkgunnermkgunner Member Posts: 3,032
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY):
    1st Leg 7.54pm abandoned for some reason (didn't watch it) So on it for the full £1 now.
    Posted by StayOrGo
    didnt see it myself but good chance hare broke down
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited May 2017
    Trap 6 wins the 8.11pm.

    46 UNITS left.

    18 of them mine.

    1,3 and 5 in the 8.27pm
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY):
    In Response to Re: RPTV DOGS JACKPOT (TRIAL ONLY) : didnt see it myself but good chance hare broke down
    Posted by mkgunner
    Was a H/C so traps may not have opened together.
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