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** JACKPOT SYNDICATE ** WHO WANTS TO DO PLACEPOTS AT ROYAL ASCOT? ** ESTIMATED PLACEPOT PRIZE POOLS
StayOrGo
Member Posts: 12,181
Hi all.
I will try and keep this short, so it may lack some strategy explanation.
Royal Ascot is coming up and it is likely the Jackpot will be too tough most days.
We could do PLACEPOTS instead, although clearly there will be no roll over so we need to find an edge elsewhere.
My suggestion is we can get an edge as follows:
1) Adopt a similar three perm strategy that we have been using recently for the Jackpot, using input from Removers and NAP's selections.
2) Statistically in the open handicaps the favourites are over-subscribed in the pool in relation to their odds. People often use the following types of system in theses scenarios.
Whatever the SP of the favourite is subtract 3 off of it. So lets say the favourite is 7/1 7 minus 3 = 4. This means in your Placepot you would NOT have the first 4 favourites in but you'd have the 5th,6th, 7th favourites in instead which are likely to be under-represented in the pool than their odds suggest they should be. As such +ev
If the favourite is 9/2 you round it up to 5 and miss the first two in the betting. etc.
3) Ascot draw bias varies from meeting to meeting, so I suggest we watch the first day and see if any particular trends occur.
4) I then suggest we take a hybrid of the above strategies to create our selections. Not having value from a rollover means that we need to get at least a 26% edge from the strategies above, and with the big open fields at Ascot, I think we may be able to do that.
However, I am aware that this is a "JACKPOT SYNDICATE" not a PLACEPOT Syndicate, so we can only do this if no-one objects.
So please post your thoughts on here.
It could be a way to have some fun at Ascot without the variance being as extreme as it would if we did the Jackpot. I am sure the NAP and REMOVAL selectors would relish the challenge ROYAL ASCOT presents.
It's up to you guys, any objections and we'll just stick to the Jackpot.
Cheers,
G
P.S. I expect the Royal Ascot PLACEPOT prize pools to be around £1,000,000 the first day and 400K there after.
I will try and keep this short, so it may lack some strategy explanation.
Royal Ascot is coming up and it is likely the Jackpot will be too tough most days.
We could do PLACEPOTS instead, although clearly there will be no roll over so we need to find an edge elsewhere.
My suggestion is we can get an edge as follows:
1) Adopt a similar three perm strategy that we have been using recently for the Jackpot, using input from Removers and NAP's selections.
2) Statistically in the open handicaps the favourites are over-subscribed in the pool in relation to their odds. People often use the following types of system in theses scenarios.
Whatever the SP of the favourite is subtract 3 off of it. So lets say the favourite is 7/1 7 minus 3 = 4. This means in your Placepot you would NOT have the first 4 favourites in but you'd have the 5th,6th, 7th favourites in instead which are likely to be under-represented in the pool than their odds suggest they should be. As such +ev
If the favourite is 9/2 you round it up to 5 and miss the first two in the betting. etc.
3) Ascot draw bias varies from meeting to meeting, so I suggest we watch the first day and see if any particular trends occur.
4) I then suggest we take a hybrid of the above strategies to create our selections. Not having value from a rollover means that we need to get at least a 26% edge from the strategies above, and with the big open fields at Ascot, I think we may be able to do that.
However, I am aware that this is a "JACKPOT SYNDICATE" not a PLACEPOT Syndicate, so we can only do this if no-one objects.
So please post your thoughts on here.
It could be a way to have some fun at Ascot without the variance being as extreme as it would if we did the Jackpot. I am sure the NAP and REMOVAL selectors would relish the challenge ROYAL ASCOT presents.
It's up to you guys, any objections and we'll just stick to the Jackpot.
Cheers,
G
P.S. I expect the Royal Ascot PLACEPOT prize pools to be around £1,000,000 the first day and 400K there after.
Comments
It's always big the first day.
I have just checked last year, so need to amend my projection.
Last year it was 1.2mill on the Tuesday, but then went down to 350-400K for the remaining days.
TBH, it matters little if the prize pool is £1 million or 400K, it will never only be won by 1 or 2 units anyway.
I did pick a Placepot up at Cheltenham once that paid almost £11K, (about 45 winning units in a 500K prize pool), so these sort of dividends are not impossible, and can happen if there's a million in the pool or just the 400K.
Also, it is quite probable, if we were to get the Placepot up, that we would double/treble up in some legs.
Cheers,
G
Although please don't post your own perms on the same thread as the "SYNDICATE PERMS" as it could confuse people, but by all means post your individual placepots on your own threads.
GL all at Ascot!
Cheers,
G