Middle set multi-way facing a world of action on super-wet board - preferred option?

shakinaces

This hand was bugging me.  I'm sure I'd have played differently with a time bank / less tables running when it came up.  FWIW I timed out on turn and decision made for me, although was still torn.  Almost timed out on flop and only just called in time as couldn't decide between call/shove.

BB new to the table but evidently not the strongest of players.
MP a bit of a loose cannon playing a fairly wide range.  Limp/calls a lot pre and doesn't raise much.  Loves to mash pot button post with any sort of hand/draw and have often seen him donk pot a couple of times and give up river.
BTN playing lots of tables (although not DTM-level volume) and plays fairly straightforward, not seen any huge bluffs and although he floats a lot of flops, he gives up lots of turn double barrels.

So I opt to call pre - I get there is a good case to raise, but I took the trappier option.

Post I then flop almost as well as I can, but then things get a bit weird.

I was obviously planning to check-raise vs pre-flop aggressor or if it was checked to BTN and he took a stab. 

But vs a cold 3b should I shove or call?

I mean, BTN is never bluffing here.  His range would therefore be AT (16 combos)/T9s (4)/JJ (3)/KQ (3)/KJ (9) = 35 combos.

I'm behind to 20 and ahead of 15 - although I have 7 immediate outs if I'm behind so am far from drawing dead (although if getting super nerdy, some of those outs may be dead if the other 2 players in the hand can be assumed to have at least 1 pair on the flop).

Overall that kinda feels like I should have shoved - the only thing in my mind was that BTN is potentially nitty enough to fold 2pr hands and only call with straights and set of jacks.  He'll know that I'm never shoving light here.

On the turn I then think I don't have the odds to call to house up / although conversely BTN is now more likely to shove set/2pr hands as my call on the flop looks like I'm weaker than I am?

Or should I turn my brain off and just always shovel my chips in when I flop a set and no new draws complete on the turn?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
shakinaces	Small blind		£0.15	£0.15	£56.00
BB	Big blind		£0.30	£0.45	£14.20
	Your hole cards	Q Q
UTG	Fold
MP	Raise		£0.60	£1.05	£74.86
CO	Fold
BTN	Call		£0.60	£1.65	£29.40
shakinaces	Call		£0.45	£2.10	£55.55
BB	Call		£0.30	£2.40	£13.90
Flop
		Q K J
shakinaces	Check
BB	Bet		£0.90	£3.30	£13.00
MP	Raise		£1.80	£5.10	£73.06
BTN	Raise		£4.80	£9.90	£24.60
shakinaces	Call		£4.80	£14.70	£50.75
BB	Call		£3.90	£18.60	£9.10
MP	Fold
Turn
		7
shakinaces	Check
BB	Check
BTN	All-in		£24.60	£43.20	£0.00
shakinaces	????

craigcu12

I don't think it's so wise to take the trapping route in a multiway pot especially when you'll be first to act. If he's anything like you said then you should be able to 3bet pre and go Ch/R on the flop.

As played

Flop itself is a call

BTN sounds like a really tight player  The only hands that are going to be raised by BTN are sets or strate. The BTN will know that MP is loose aggressive the reraise is a likely indication that MP has got something considered good, knowing this  BTN is probably going do trap mode with hand such as KQ with because it will  ensure that MP very worst range will still be in and the trouble of a polarized reraise which MP might do.

Turn fold

I would say his hand is either JJ or strate 

If a player doesn't bluff then he'll be more thoughtful of what are your strongest hands. He probably expects you to fold the weakest of range. what he's doing here is getting the maximum amount from hands like KQ whilst ahead and protecting himself from the FH.

percival09

Hey shakin. I'm not one to dwell on preflop decisions as they tend to bore me to death, but here I think you're probably making a significant mistake by flatting pre. Being OOP especially your hand benefits substantially from inflating the pot, i.e. reducing the SPR & thus reducing the positional advantage. I suppose now is the time to move on to the tough stuff

Very interesting spot mainly because there are lots of interesting dynamics going on. I don't think your hand is great in this situation, but I'm sort of of the opinion that we should either raise or fold this hand on the flop. We're losing huge chunks of ev by letting any draw do their thing and draw. We're not slowplaying, we're really in no-man's-land just hoping for the miracle turn board pairing card, and even then we're not in brilliant shape unless it's the Q.

It seems strange to suggest such a polarising play, either raise or fold, but I don't think our hand gains from letting others see a turn card. If we were deep then getting it in would likely be a disaster, and we'd probably have to call simply because getting it in is even worse, but here I think with all that dead money in the pot, together with the multiway action, low SPR, being OOP, our hands are a tad tied.  Folding seems fine, too.

With such little information we just have to accept that sometimes here we're going to make a blunder by folding once we see they get it in with 55 and A4. I wouldn't have a problem with either a fold or a jam, but I do think calling is probably a mistake. 

This all really revolves around the idea that protection is central to optimal OOP play, especially at more shallow stack depths, and that concept only strengthens as the number of players in the pot increases. Our EV plummets being first to act against so many other players on such a dynamic board. I mean these guys are probably weak players so this effect won't mean very much, but even if the board pairs on a future street, do you expect any action against worse hands vs reasonable opponents? It seems unlikely to me.

swanstu

Does your own check on the turn not become a big enough factor to consider - you are repping weakness, so more likely he puts in that larger bet there?

percival09

Swan, 2 things.

1 - It's standard in most situations to check to the previous street aggressor. Why? Our EV shrinks being OOP, meaning we don't want to stick too much money into the pot because we're at a disadvantage. So the check should not be a big factor to consider.

2 - I think it's pretty tough to 'rep weakness' after cold calling a 3bet on the flop, especially oop. 

My advice would be to try to avoid thinking in terms of 'repping weakness', try to think in terms of ranges and expected value + equity. Someone cold 3bets the flop on KQJ, they probably have the nuts. They shouldn't be doing it with less than a set. Vs that range, not to mention the other ranges in the pot, betting is likely a disaster. 

shakinaces

Thanks for the response Percival - can only aspire to get close to your level one day!

Part of it was the larger stacks, playing close to 200bb eff vs the original raiser - I'm not sure I want to get that sort of stack in pre so if I face a 4b then I'm in a pretty grotty spot and at least considering putting QQ in the muck pre-flop. 

With an active short-stack at the table I thought there was some chance he may take the opportunity to jam and I can obviously snap call if the other 2 stacks fold, or else settle for set-mining / playing a smaller pot with what is obviously beyond the top of my range here.

Not saying that's correct or that I disagree with you, just showing what my thought process was at the time.

Must spend more time working out how to play deeper stacks if I'm not going to insta walk when doubling up!

I'd be lying if I said the 200bb thing wasn't playing on my mind post-flop as well.  Easy shove if we're all 100bb pre flop - accepting likely behind, but almost certainly with some outs.

As it is, the BB had an Ax flushdraw/gutshot and the BTN had KJ.  I was genuinely surprised, although guess they were driven by the 'splashy' nature of the other two in the pot and likelihood that I had whiffed (given JJ-KK would likely have been 3b).

That may have made me curse quite loudly and question whether I should even be playing poker

swanstu

It's a tricky hand for sure - I don't think I would have folded there, but I'm a cash donk and seeing my sets makes me shove against anything!

swanstu

I have just actually properly realised that (according to the hand reveal previous post) my likely chosen action/analysis of 'shoving it all in' would have been the 'correct' one this time of course too....