Get it in?

jdsallstar

Hi this is a hand I played a few nights ago and been thinking about it and curious what others would do. To give some background we're in the last 10-15 of a bh'er and the villain here hasnt been at my table that long and seems to be half decent but also reasonably active and not a nit.

So what do you do on the turn?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
X	Small blind		800.00	800.00	41976.00
rusty762	Big blind		1600.00	2400.00	57676.00
	Your hole cards	K A
jdsallstar	Raise		3200.00	5600.00	21712.00
Godpops	Fold
X	Call		2400.00	8000.00	39576.00
rusty762	Call		1600.00	9600.00	56076.00
Flop
		8 7 A
X	Check
rusty762	Check
jdsallstar	Bet		3900.00	13500.00	17812.00
X	Call		3900.00	17400.00	35676.00
rusty762	Fold
Turn
		2
X	Bet		7777.00	25177.00	27899.00
jdsallstar	?

Matt237

I probably fold.

Its been a while since i've played and I know its not the question but I would be shoving that pre flop

EvilPingu

In Response to Re: Get it in?:

I probably fold. Its been a while since i've played and I know its not the question but I would be shoving that pre flop
Posted by Matt237

15.5 bigs I think a minraise is fine tbh and probably preferable if we're decent post-flop, particularly on Sky w/ no antes as the incentive to just jam and take the blinds pre is less. Jam takes away opportunity to get it in or get a 3b/f from bluffs pre, too. Jamming pre isn't horrendous, but we definitely lose some value by doing so.

On such a wet flop, I'd bet bigger for value. Pot 9.6k, stack 21.7k - Don't think it's necessarily awful to just jam with that SPR and board texture, we probs don't get an Ace to fold regardless because of the SPR and we can be perceived to jam plenty of draws. I personally wouldn't jam this all that often, although there's definitely merit in doing so, particularly in BHs where people call off wider - If villain is someone who is likely to punt because of a bounty then I like just jamming while they still have the temptation of two cards to get there (as opposed to them calling flop, getting a brick turn then folding)

I'd probably go a tad bigger on the flop just to get villain more committed to have to call off a brick turn, I like somewhere in the ~5.5k area.

Decision depends on opponent, quite a lot of people do just have it here, and when they do show up with something that isn't beating us, it still has ~20-30% equity more often than not by virtue of having a random spade, so I think it's just about okay to fold here as a default, all things considered. Certainly wouldn't be folding in a million years if we had the King of Spades though.

jdsallstar

Thanks both for the input, appreciated.

Essexphil

You are less than 50/50 here, BUT getting more than 4-1 v an active player. I'm calling all day in this spot

jdsallstar

Hi phil, calling not shoving? If so what's the plan on the river?

LexLuthor

In Response to Re: Get it in?:

Hi phil, calling not shoving? If so what's the plan on the river?
Posted by jdsallstar

It's a personal preference obvs. but I'm not a fan of min raising off a stack as short as this with a non made hand so I would almost certainly have just jammed pre.

Beyond that and as played I think it is just a fold unfortunatley, without any reads on the player the balance of probability suggests that he just has you beat one way or anohter way more often than not.

Essexphil

In Response to Re: Get it in?:

Hi phil, calling not shoving? If so what's the plan on the river?
Posted by jdsallstar

Folding to a spade river shove, all-in for most of rest

Essexphil

In Response to Re: Get it in?:

In Response to Re: Get it in? : It's a personal preference obvs. but I'm not a fan of min raising off a stack as short as this with a non made hand so I would almost certainly have just jammed pre. Beyond that and as played I think it is just a fold unfortunatley, without any reads on the player the balance of probability suggests that he just has you beat one way or anohter way more often than not.
Posted by LexLuthor

Agree with 1st paragraph-think should either be shoving or betting 3x/4x
Disagree with 2nd paragraph-getting way better pot odds than "balance of probability"/ "more often than not"-you only need to win 1 in 3. There are a lot of As/x hands playing this hand like this

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: Get it in?:

In Response to Re: Get it in? : Agree with 1st paragraph-think should either be shoving or betting 3x/4x Disagree with 2nd paragraph-getting way better pot odds than "balance of probability"/ "more often than not"-you only need to win 1 in 3. There are a lot of As/x hands playing this hand like this
Posted by Essexphil

If he's gonna 4x open it at 800/1600 then he might as well just shove!

jdsallstar

In Response to Re: Get it in?:

In Response to Re: Get it in? : Folding to a spade river shove, all-in for most of rest
Posted by Essexphil

Thanks for that.

So you're flatting the turn leaving about 6 bigs behind and only folding to a spade river? Would we not just be better off shoving the turn? 

As for the open size, I think I can see the merit in a 3x open but surely shoving from the 16 bb stack folds out a lot of weaker aces that might try to put me in pre? And by shoving most of the time I just pick up blinds? I get that picking up the blinds is no bad thing and is about a 10% increase in stack but surely I should be trying to make more out of a premium hand at this stage?

If I'm shoving ak pre from a 16 bb stack, are we shoving the rest of my range here too? Assuming we have a normal'ish table.

jdsallstar

In Response to Re: Get it in?:

In Response to Re: Get it in? : It's a personal preference obvs. but I'm not a fan of min raising off a stack as short as this with a non made hand so I would almost certainly have just jammed pre. Beyond that and as played I think it is just a fold unfortunatley, without any reads on the player the balance of probability suggests that he just has you beat one way or anohter way more often than not.
Posted by LexLuthor

Thanks the input, I'm really not a fan of the shove here because, and I could easily be wrong, it feels like it restricts me to a very tight range and I'm just in shove or fold mode. I mean where does that leave us with hand like Q10s ....are we shoving too?

LexLuthor

In Response to Re: Get it in?:

In Response to Re: Get it in? : Agree with 1st paragraph-think should either be shoving or betting 3x/4x Disagree with 2nd paragraph-getting way better pot odds than "balance of probability"/ "more often than not"-you only need to win 1 in 3. There are a lot of As/x hands playing this hand like this
Posted by Essexphil

I'm not sure this counts for much but whenever I've seen this kind of betting line on this network they usually do have it.  

When the villain donk leads the turn I ask myself "What does he think that I have given my betting line?"

At this stage I'm not so sure I'm really beating much apart from a bluff or maybe a semi-bluff with some kind of pair plus FD.  I'm weighting his range now much more towards 2 pairs and the flush.

If this was a cash hand however sure I'd just sigh, hit all in and punt it off and hope to hit my 1 in 3 but in tournaments I tend not to think so much in terms of pure pot odds all of the time especially this shallow and towards the business end.

markycash

I think the smaller raise preflop is fine here as we have positional advantage. Having said that I would raise slightly more, maybe around 2.3-2.5x to hopefully define their range a little bit more. I think in the 2.3-2.5x opening scenario we get slightly more 3bet shoves from hands we do well against. I then probably bet a bit higher on the flop on this board texture with 2 opponents, maybe around 5900. Main reason being that it may make 1 of our opponents feel they can put us to a test for our stack with a weaker overall range versus our hand.

As played I think it boils down to the crispness of our read versus this opponent on the turn and all options have merit. Opponent's bet size is tricky, could either be applying pressure with an Ax hand with 1 spade; a flopped set they have got tricky with or they may have the flush. Really tough and would depend how the table was playing and our read in this spot.

Good post, tricky spot. 

Angmar2626

In Response to Re: Get it in?:

I think the smaller raise preflop is fine here as we have positional advantage. Having said that I would raise slightly more, maybe around 2.3-2.5x to hopefully define their range a little bit more. I think in the 2.3-2.5x opening scenario we get slightly more 3bet shoves from hands we do well against. I then probably bet a bit higher on the flop on this board texture with 2 opponents, maybe around 5900. Main reason being that it may make 1 of our opponents feel they can put us to a test for our stack with a weaker overall range versus our hand. As played I think it boils down to the crispness of our read versus this opponent on the turn and all options have merit. Opponent's bet size is tricky, could either be applying pressure with an Ax hand with 1 spade; a flopped set they have got tricky with or they may have the flush. Really tough and would depend how the table was playing and our read in this spot. Good post, tricky spot. 
Posted by markycash

This. But for different reason - I think we need to size up flop bet so we're left with SPR1 for the turn so we can shove the turn. Such a wet board, don't really want to mess around and get ourselves in awkward spots on turns and rivers.

jdsallstar

In Response to Re: Get it in?:

In Response to Re: Get it in? : This. But for different reason - I think we need to size up flop bet so we're left with SPR1 for the turn so we can shove the turn. Such a wet board, don't really want to mess around and get ourselves in awkward spots on turns and rivers.
Posted by Angmar2626

That was the reason for my bet sizing on the flop, i planned to shove the turn with a pot sized all in bet.....after the flop the pot and my stack are about £17.5. That and i thought the slightly less than half pot may tempt  a smaller ace to shove to protect against the draw themselves.

Just didnt want the spade turn and donk lead lol

mumsie

Great Post JD.