There was a bit of discussion about this hand so I'll give the specifics. I'm interested what other people would have done in both spots.
Blinds 10k-20k I have 1.1mill in big blind and it folds around to SB with around 600k who makes it 55k ish. I decide to shove with A-10o. My thinking is we're not that far off the money and he won't want to flip for his tourny life with 2s-7s and will prob laydown A-10, A-J and anything worse. He can fold and still have a playable stack. I had been playing very aggro so just raising could tempt him to shove with these hands. A flat call seems too tight and I'm happy to take down the pot here.
He agonises for a while and folds 9-9 which I certainly think is a mistake as I am shoving all lower pairs and playing more trappy with higher pairs.
Comments
Ha.
You were opening or 3 betting around 6 times per orbit, so even though I'm Lord Nit, of Nit Street, Nitville, I'm re-jamming here with 9-9 in a nanasecond.
Then again, I noticed that you did run unbelievably well all weekend, so you'd have hit, for sure.
I hate his raise/fold, villain should either limp/3b to avoid being exploited in this way by a competent and aggressive opponent, because you can isolate him super wide then he can just ship 99 and get you to fold so much of the time when you iso light. He's getting 4/1 on a limp with a somewhat disguised hand against a weaker than ATC range if you check anyways, plus it helps control the pot OOP, so a check isn't a disaster for him, and it would help protect the botom end of his SB limp range to be able to l/3b.
Right, first of all, I think we're making far too many loose assumptions. How do you know your opponents won't just snap AJs? Did you have any idea at all? Or are you just thinking how you would play? It's all well and good saying "we're not far off the money" & assuming he won't "want to flip for his tourney life with 77" but we have absolutely no idea here. Like I said, using what you would do & then hoping your opponent thinks the same way is clearly a poor strategy. Now I know we don't always have to have complete information to make a play. Poker is a game of incomplete information. But there has to be a cut-off point, a point where risking our entire stack for, if anything, a potential tiny EV gain becomes a blunder. Where is that cut off point? I'd say 50bb is past it. It's one of those "how big is your..." plays imo. A bit like Elon Musk trying to colonise Mars soon.
If we're willing to rip in 50bbs with ATo because we're close to the bubble, then I assume you're willing to jam most hands? ATo likely has very poor equity vs any range that calls, so I don't see why not.