OK, I think I have accommodated everyone's addition requests. The consequence of this, and the fact that it's a very tough card, is that you will need to remove TWENTY FOUR including at least one from the 6.55PM:
LAT PRICES BELOW:
| THURSDAY |
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TIME | HORSE | LAT | RES |
LEG ONE | SHORTLIST |
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5.50 1m2f | 01 - LOZAH | 4/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 02 - SAKHALIN STAR | 12/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 03 - SPIRIT OF THE VALE | 5/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 05 - GOOD TIME AHEAD | 5/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 06 - PERMANENT | 9/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 07 - KERRY ICON | 8/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 09 - MOUNT CHEIRON | 9/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 13 - PINDARIC | 11/1 |
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LEG TWO | LEG TWO |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 01 - WAITING FOR RICHIE | 15/2 |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 02 - CHANT | 12/1 | 1ST |
6.20 1m4.5f | 03 - MAJOR ROWAN | 12/1 |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 04 - SATISH | 4/1 |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 05 - HAYWARD FIELD | 10/3 |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 07 - NEW SOCIETY | 4/1 |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 08 - COOL MUSIC | 11/1 |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 09 - HIGHWAY ROBBER | 12/1 |
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LEG THREE | LEG THREE |
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6.55 7f | 02 - MISS BAR BEACH | 7/4 |
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6.55 7f | 03 - SEAELLA | 11/10 |
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6.55 7f | 04 - KYLIE RULES | 9/2 |
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LEG FOUR | LEG FOUR |
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7.25 6f HD | 01 - INGENUITY | 4/1 |
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7.25 6f HD | 02 - CHARACTER WITNESS | 7/2 |
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7.25 6f HD | 04 - GORSE | 33/1 |
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7.25 6f HD | 05 - LIFE FOR RENT | 25/1 |
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7.25 6f HD | 06 - MERKAVA | 10/1 |
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7.25 6f HD | 07 - THE AULD HOOSE | 22/1 |
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7.25 6f HD | 09 - TRUE NORTH | 12/1 |
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7.25 6f HD | 10 - AWESOMETANK | 9/4 |
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7.25 6f HD | 11 - FABULOUS RED | 11/2 |
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7.25 6f HD | 12 - HIKMAA | 33/1 |
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LEG FIVE | LEG FIVE |
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8.00 7f HD | 01 - SYMBOLIC STAR | 10/1 |
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8.00 7f HD | 02 - IBERICA ROAD | 16/1 |
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8.00 7f HD | 03 - NONNO GIULIO | 12/1 |
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8.00 7f HD | 05 - JUSTICE PLEASING | 13/2 |
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8.00 7f HD | 06 - DESTINATION AIM | 10/1 |
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8.00 7f HD | 07 - LUATH | 14/1 |
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8.00 7f HD | 08 - FAINTLY | 9/2 |
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8.00 7f HD | 11 - PASS THE CRYSTAL | 12/1 |
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8.00 7f HD | 12 - SUPREME POWER | 16/1 |
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8.00 7f HD | 13 - ANGEL'S ACCLAIM | 5/1 |
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8.00 7f HD | 14 - REY LOOPY | 8/1 |
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LEG SIX | LEG SIX |
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8.30 7f HD | 01 - CAESER THE GAESER | 12/1 |
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8.30 7f HD | 02 - PORTLAND STREET | 16/1 |
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8.30 7f HD | 03 - EPEIUS | 6/1 |
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8.30 7f HD | 05 - INDIAN PURSUIT | 12/1 |
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8.30 7f HD | 06 - MEANDMYSHADOW | 6/1 |
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8.30 7f HD | 07 - COMPTON PARK | 10/1 |
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8.30 7f HD | 08 - AD VITAM | 25/1 |
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8.30 7f HD | 10 - SLEMY | 14/1 |
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8.30 7f HD | 11 - LUCKY LODGE | 16/1 |
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8.30 7f HD | 12 - DANDY BIRD | 33/1 |
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8.30 7f HD | 13 - ETIENNE GERARD | 7/2 |
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8.30 7f HD | 14 - BEARAG | 8/1 |
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GL!
| THURSDAY |
| 10/08/17 | NEWCASTLE |
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TIME | HORSE | DR | JOCKEY | TRAINER | RP | PM | AM | LAT | RES |
LEG ONE | LEG ONE |
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5.50 1m2f | 01 - LOZAH | 12 | B.SANDERSON (3) | R.FELL | 5/1 | 6/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 02 - SAKHALIN STAR | 14 | K.LUNDIE | R.GUEST | 13/2 | 13/2 |
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5.50 1m2f | 03 - SPIRIT OF THE VALE | 10 | S.CRONIN (3) | O.GREENALL | 6/1 | 3/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 04 - JUDICIOUS | 8 | P.VAUGHAN | G.HARKER | 14/1 | 16/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 05 - GOOD TIME AHEAD | 3 | R.TURNER (3) | P.KIRBY | 6/1 | 9/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 06 - PERMANENT | 11 | J.UYS | D.KUBLER | 8/1 | 11/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 07 - KERRY ICON | 5 | S.WOODS (5) | I.JARDINE | 6/1 | 6/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 08 - FERNGROVE | 9 | R.DODSWORTH (5) | S.CORBETT | 33/1 | 33/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 09 - MOUNT CHEIRON | 2 | G.O'NEILL | R.FORD | 10/1 | 20/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 10 - SNAPPYDRESSER | 7 | T.ELEY (5) | C.GRANT | 25/1 | 25/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 11 - BIGBADBOY | 13 | J.QUINN | C.MULHALL | 33/1 | 33/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 12 - INGLEBY ERIN | 1 | T.PRICE (5) | C.TEA GUE | 33/1 | 33/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 13 - PINDARIC | 6 | C.MURTAGH | A.LOCKWOOD | 9/1 | 14/1 |
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5.50 1m2f | 14 - SHINE BABY SHINE | 4 | P.MUIR | P.KIRBY | 25/1 | 33/1 |
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LEG TWO | LEG TWO |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 01 - WAITING FOR RICHIE | 5 | T.EAVES | T.TATE | 4/1 | 9/2 |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 02 - CHANT | 6 | S.GRAY | A.DUFFIELD | 8/1 | 6/1 |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 03 - MAJOR ROWAN | 9 | G.LEE | J.DAVIES | 16/1 | 20/1 |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 04 - SATISH | 7 | H.BENTLEY | D.O'MEARA | 11/2 | 5/1 |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 05 - HAYWARD FIELD | 4 | P.MATHERS | N.WILSON | 5/1 | 9/2 |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 06 - RECOGNITION | 2 | C.MURTAGH | B.MURTAGH | 33/1 | 40/1 |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 07 - NEW SOCIETY | 8 | P.McDONALD | J.BETHELL | 3/1 | 7/2 |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 08 - COOL MUSIC | 1 | C.HARDIE | A.BRITTAIN | 15/2 | 9/1 |
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6.20 1m4.5f | 09 - HIGHWAY ROBBER | 3 | P.MULRENNAN | W.STOREY | 7/1 | 15/2 |
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LEG THREE | LEG THREE |
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6.55 7f | 01 - CAPE BUNTING | 2 | P.McDONALD | M.JOHNSTON | 6/4 | 11/10 |
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| </t
Comments
I know we have agreed, but this really is a tough ask, are we sure we want to go for it? I'd say our chance of success is less than 2%, probably still +ev, but massive variance.
The only way we can even consider it is to have the favourite (CAPE BUNTING) in LEG 3 as a "banker" in two of the three perms.
Up to you guys?
G
P.S. We will still do NAP's and REMOVALS as if it's a definite GO-LIVE, but we may abort if the consensus leans that way.
P.P.S. I will probably do a PERSONAL PLACEPOT on some of our selections (10p lines), others may like to do their own Placepots too on a subset of the selections. A high Placepot Dividend is likely, and it could be a consolation if we have another near miss with the Jackpot, but I think in this instance, Placepots should be done individually, so will NOT be a Syndicate bet.
A = 1st choice, B = 2nd choice, C = 3rd choice and so on.
------------------------------
PERM A:
LEG 1: AB
LEG 2: ACDF
LEG 3: AB
LEG 4: ABCD
LEG 5: ACE
LEG 6: AB
384 lines = £192.00
------------------------------
PERM B:
LEG 1: ABCD
LEG 2: ABE
LEG 3: A
LEG 4: ACD
LEG 5: ABD
LEG 6: ABE
324 lines = £162.00
------------------------------
PERM C:
LEG 1: ACDE
LEG 2: BCD
LEG 3: A
LEG 4: AB
LEG 5: BCDF
LEG 6: ACD
288 lines = £144.00
-----------------------------
This is just an example in context of the Newcastle card. In this example the total outlay would be £498.00. The A's,B's,C's, D's,E's and F's will be decided by NAPs, REMOVALS and MARKET MOVES as usual. Although a real outsider (16/1 +), in any race, would bust even the F's.
I have also crunched some numbers regarding the likelihood of a rollover. Estimating that approx 50K will be added to the existing £80K, means there would be approximately 100,000 total lines in play.
Looking at the average expected SP per race, I come to the conclusion that there is probably a 40% chance of another rollover.
I suggest that the statistically minded of you take a look at all the stats above and post your thoughts.
Cheers,
G
OK it looks like the consensus is still to go for it, so we will.
I am sure everyone understands that the expectation of winning should be quite low, however, if we did somehow manage it, then we can expect a decent dividend.
Thanks for the further feedback.
Cheers,
G
PLEASE NOTE: CAPE BUNTING (Our Banker) is a NON-RUNNER
Cheers,
G
PERMANENT 3 PTS
LOZAH 5 PTS
SAKHALIN STAR 2 PTS
18.20 MAJOR ROWAN 2 PTS
WAITING FOR RITCHIE 4 PTS
CHANT -6 PTS
18.55 KYLIE RULES 5 PTS
19.25 HIKMAA -10 PTS
GORSE 2 PTS
THE AULD HOOSE 2 PTS
TRUE NORTH 2 PTS
MERKAVA 3 PTS
20.00 SUPREME POWER 2 PTS
IBERICA ROAD 2 PTS
PASS THE CRYSTAL 2 PTS
NONNO GIULIO 2 PTS
REV LOOPY 3 PTS
20.30 DANDY BIRD 2 PTS
PORTLAND STREET 2 PTS
LUCKY LODGE -10 PTS
INDIAN PUSUIT 2 PTS
CAESER THE GAESER 2 PTS
MEANDMYSHADOW 4 PTS
RABDENIRO SCORED 30 PTS FROM 24 SELECTIONS WITH 3 WINNERS.