Max value or over-valuing an overpair?

shakinaces

Getting into pots with regs, both of which are multi-tabling NL20-NL50 and probably the occasional NL100.

I'm ruling out AA/KK in UTG range given the lack of 4-bet.  That leaves AK, 77-QQ and maybe a few high suited connectors given villain knows he'll have position post-flop. 

I think most of those call my cbet, given sizing, so range on turn is similar, less any T9s, JTs, QJs, KQs.

Turn & river then pretty gross given range - I'm never stacking 77-99 or AK, QQ is obviously unlikely, so.... meh.

a) Should I forget about trying to value town other pairs and just shove turn?

b) It sort of feels as though river should be a check-fold now... but is that just too nitty?  Only the 4 combos of 78s (if even played pre) are likely to be in oppos river bluff range so I can't see check-call being an option.

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
SB	Small blind		£0.10	£0.10	£20.53
shakinaces	Big blind		£0.20	£0.30	£25.54
	Your hole cards	Q Q
UTG	Raise		£0.60	£0.90	£59.17
MP	Fold
CO	Fold
BTN	Fold
SB	Call		£0.50	£1.40	£20.03
shakinaces	Raise		£2.20	£3.60	£23.34
UTG	Call		£1.80	£5.40	£57.37
SB	Call		£1.80	£7.20	£18.23
Flop
		2 6 5
SB	Check
shakinaces	Bet		£4.00	£11.20	£19.34
villain	Call		£4.00	£15.20	£53.37
SB	Fold
Turn
		10
shakinaces	Bet		£8.00	£23.20	£11.34
villain	Call		£8.00	£31.20	£45.37
River
		J
shakinaces	All-in		£11.34	£42.54	£0.00
villain	Call		£11.34	£53.88	£34.03

FeelGroggy

With such a low SPR on the river it's pretty awkward, think we have little choice but to go for thin value, check folding feels so gross. He can't really have many (any) bluffs other than 87s exactly which might even fold turn, but would be a disaster if we check/ fold and he goes thin with like AThh KJhh AJhh or something. Think I would just jam river and hope he finds a call with 8s or 9s or something, or fd hands thaat made a pair on turn/riv. I think turn jam would be reasonable, and balance it by jamming overs and fds. Can mix in some turn checks with a few overpairs so we aren't always check folding like AhAx Khkx

rancid

shove turn or check/call river

weecheez1

In Response to Re: Max value or over-valuing an overpair?:

With such a low SPR on the river it's pretty awkward, think we have little choice but to go for thin value, check folding feels so gross. He can't really have many (any) bluffs other than 87s exactly which might even fold turn, but would be a disaster if we check/ fold and he goes thin with like AThh KJhh AJhh or something. Think I would just jam river and hope he finds a call with 8s or 9s or something, or fd hands thaat made a pair on turn/riv. I think turn jam would be reasonable, and balance it by jamming overs and fds. Can mix in some turn checks with a few overpairs so we aren't always check folding like AhAx Khkx
Posted by FeelGroggy

Morning groggy silly question time whats SPR 

gazza127

In Response to Re: Max value or over-valuing an overpair?:

In Response to Re: Max value or over-valuing an overpair? : Morning groggy silly question time whats SPR 
Posted by weecheez1

Stack to Pot Ratio pal.

Little bit gross cause hero has 1/3 pot on river so we have almost no choice but to either shove for value or check/call as we theoretically have the odds as there are enough missed draws.

RE OP.  I'd probably play very similar.  Sometimes I'd mix in a Check/Shove (although would prefer a bigger stack to do this) on the turn or maybe a check/call on the river as there are enough missed draws.  He'd have to hero the river sometimes with worse so I'd rather let him hang himself I think.