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did I overvalue this gutshot+2 overs

craigcu12craigcu12 Member Posts: 3,960
edited December 2021 in Strategy
I don't know this opponent much but have seen him donk alot. The only card guarenteed to put me ahead is the J but as a frequent donker I can see the Q o0r K putting me ahead. The only wayI assumed would get him to fold his weaker donks is doing a large reraise and in doing so I've been made to call an AI

Is this move correct or will I be losing value long term

How would this compare to flush or staight draws+over cards can they be raised in this sort of situation ?
MITCH38Small blind 40.0040.002610.00
macfadBig blind 80.00120.003020.00
 Your hole cards
  • K
  • Q
   
thislteduFold    
porkiesCall 80.00200.002935.00
craigcu12Raise 240.00440.008422.50
danger955Fold    
MITCH38Fold    
macfadCall 160.00600.002860.00
porkiesFold    
Flop
  
  • 6
  • 9
  • 10
   
macfadBet 300.00900.002560.00
craigcu12Raise 1500.002400.006922.50
macfadAll-in 2560.004960.000.00
craigcu12?

Comments

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    Angmar2626Angmar2626 Member Posts: 886
    edited September 2017
    Why so big?
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    craigcu12craigcu12 Member Posts: 3,960
    edited September 2017
    My intention when doing the raise was to make the weaker section of his donks fold. pot size bet itself might give him more concern and as a shorter stack he might not be as keen to call.

    I ruled out calling right away because the odds for hitting the turn seemed poor and the chances are I'd be folding if I missed. 

    This is why I raise the question of whether I might have over valued this when I should of just folded

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    hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr Member Posts: 8,036
    edited September 2017
    Well after raising that much you have to call his all in.
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    Card4LifeCard4Life Member Posts: 18
    edited September 2017
    If you are going to raise 1500 , you may as well shove as you are commited at that point , if you min raised or raised to 900 you can then get away from the hand when facing the 4bet shove on the flop ......I'm pretty sure you are not commited with these size bets , if anyone believes this estimate to be incorrect , feel free to let me know :)
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    dimspaldimspal Member Posts: 11
    edited September 2017
    ye you bet to much i would just called if missed fold turn  i know cant keep doing this but if he that loose got try and trap 
    but as cardforlife say  s is good advice 




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    craigcu12craigcu12 Member Posts: 3,960
    edited September 2017
    I understand now all in should have been my best move, I had done a thread asking If I should have double barrell jammed as nut flush draw rather than weak beat but i've deleted that now because looking bat at this I'm thinking an all in is the best  done an all in is the best option becuase that's what will get me maximum value when I do hit.

    I've just had a simular instance now where I had two over cards+ gutshot and faced a donk pot again I went all in when the best thing might have been to fold. I did do an all in this afternoon as 2 over cards+ nutflush draw and hit. I've now compared the equity of both and noticed a considerable difference in how often they win
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    waller02waller02 Member Posts: 9,026
    edited September 2017
    Is going all in the best option though? I think either raising smaller or just calling and reassessing on the turn are both better options than shoving.


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    HENDRIK62HENDRIK62 Member Posts: 3,162
    edited September 2017
    In Response to Re: did I overvalue this gutshot+2 overs:
    Is going all in the best option though? I think either raising smaller or just calling and reassessing on the turn are both better options than shoving.
    Posted by waller02

    This
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    MattBatesMattBates Member Posts: 4,118
    edited September 2017
    You have decided donk bet is weak without actually knowing if this is the case. Also by shoving you aren't balancing your range at all as what hands would you play like this?
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    craigcu12craigcu12 Member Posts: 3,960
    edited September 2017
    One of the things that does come to mind when calling is do I have the correct pot odds.

    Speaking of donks I have just had another example of one only this time I called the flop rather than raised and then viewed his turn as a sign of weaknes therefore doing a raise and finishing off with a full side bet to get maximum value from the odd hand he will still call thinking he'll fold most times anyway.

    When taking another look at that and comparing it with the one I've just had today I can see myself why calling the mjority of my range might be best and the turn could be a case of going all in or folding

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