N H SEASON

zadoc

SO AS WE MOVE INTO THE SEASON WHERE THE FLAT RACES HAVE OBSTACLES, DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY GOOD POINTERS FOR FINDING WINNERS, PLEASE?

ROGER

vaigret

Hi roger,

I usually do well at start of season following horses ahead of the handicapper and once into season and you have seen more of the races other horses seem to come. 

I will try to explain here and will use my nap for today Exitas as an example. This horse is very well handicapped on all form over hurdles and his last run showed he has taken to fences very well. The only problem today and one I will probably regret is that he has never won over this far. 

So look at horses early on who have won a race and then look at how and at what trip. If they have won well over that trip they could go on again, if they do follow them at least until they lose. Over the last few seasons I have made a nice lot from horses that the "experts" think the handicapper has got or they are not as good as their win suggests. This leads them to being nice prices and staying ahead of the handicapper. Cant remember the names of all of them but I particularly remember a horse called Solway something or other that won four times on the trot and all over 5-1. Days of Heaven last spring was another . Others have been Aubusson, Boondooma and Flintham. Ok they might not have won lots on the trot but used to win one in three at nice prices whilst they were out of handicappers grip.

Hope that helps and I think better than following market , although if a horse dives in price that usually means they are on a going day and backing them might be a good idea. Also dont lose faith if backing one of these and they lose. Watch the race after. So many horses are backed down to win because the trainer thinks they are fit only to find on the racetrack they blow up. I have backed a nice lot of winners next time out after seeing them swinging along with a couple of furlongs to go only to go out like a light when pressurised. They just need that severe blow to take them to next stage. 

Hopethat useful and not teaching you to suck eggs

Terry

MISTY4ME

In Response to N H SEASON:

SO AS WE MOVE INTO THE SEASON WHERE THE FLAT RACES HAVE OBSTACLES, DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY GOOD POINTERS FOR FINDING WINNERS, PLEASE? ROGER
Posted by zadoc

Hi Roger,

The simplest one is to make sure the horses you back can jump!!!!

Follow good trainers like Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls, and anything Willie Mullins sends over from Ireland with Ruby Walsh riding. All of their horses are usually short prices though, but they are the best trainers and consequently get the best horses.

I also like following up and coming trainers, particularly Harry Fry, Dan Skelton, (Colin) +Joe Tizzard who have all worked for Paul Nicholls and also Neil Mullholland, and a couple of new ones in Nigel Hawke (especially when he sends horses to small Northern meetings) and Jonny Farrelly (when his horses are backed)

I always follow trainers in form too. When their horses are hot even the 'Stable Cat' could win, and I never back trainers horses when they are on the cold list. Wait until they have a horse that wins. The HOT & COLD lists are in the Racing Post, but I'm sure they can be found elsewhere or on the R.Post's website.

EDIT:

I also forgot Gary Moore at PLUMPTON and FONTWELL, his local tracks (especially when his horses are backed) and he has a great record at Sandown too, where the season before last he had at least two trebles at massive odds. 

rabdeniro

In Response to Re: N H SEASON:

Hi roger, I usually do well at start of season following horses ahead of the handicapper and once into season and you have seen more of the races other horses seem to come.  I will try to explain here and will use my nap for today Exitas as an example. This horse is very well handicapped on all form over hurdles and his last run showed he has taken to fences very well. The only problem today and one I will probably regret is that he has never won over this far.  So look at horses early on who have won a race and then look at how and at what trip. If they have won well over that trip they could go on again, if they do follow them at least until they lose. Over the last few seasons I have made a nice lot from horses that the "experts" think the handicapper has got. This leads them to being nice prices and staying ahead of the handicapper. Cant remember the names of all of them but I'll try to remember some and post them on here
Posted by vaigret

I dont really bet on N/H except the big meetings, do you have any opinions on the Skeltons at Uttoxeter today.

zadoc

Thanks VAIGRET & MISTY for your replys.

good info to work on.

R

vaigret

In Response to Re: N H SEASON:

In Response to N H SEASON : Hi Roger, The simplest one is to make sure the horses you back can jump!!!! Follow good trainers like Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls, and anything Willie Mullins sends over from Ireland with Ruby Walsh riding. All of their horses are usually short prices though, but they are the best trainers and consequently get the best horses. I also like following up and coming trainers, particularly Harry Fry, Dan Skelton, (Colin) +Joe Tizzard who have all worked for Paul Nicholls and also Neil Mullholland, and a couple of new ones in Nigel Hawke (especially when he sends horses to small Northern meetings) and Jonny Farrelly (when his horses are backed) I always follow trainers in form too. When their horses are hot even the 'Stable Cat' could win, and I never back trainers horses when they are on the cold list. Wait until they have a horse that wins. The HOT & COLD lists are in the Racing Post, but I'm sure they can be found elsewhere or on the R.Post's website. EDIT: I also forgot Gary Moore at PLUMPTON and FONTWELL, his local tracks (especially when his horses are backed) and he has a great record at Sandown too, where the season before last he had at least two trebles at massive odds. 
Posted by MISTY4ME

+ 1

 Up and coming trainers always give you value its just a case of spotting ones as they come through.David Griffiths is one of mine on the flat who I spotted early and his horses are always overpriced, note TAKE COVER yesterday. David Mesnurier is another flat trainer on the up. 

A few years ago NICK WILLIAMS  over jumps was a great trainer to follow as his horses were always overpriced. Still are sometimes even now. 

MISTY4ME

In Response to Re: N H SEASON:

In Response to Re: N H SEASON : I dont really bet on N/H except the big meetings, do you have any opinions on the Skeltons at Uttoxeter today.
Posted by rabdeniro

Hi Rab

I'm hoping they have a good day, as I've napped RESILIENCY. Hoping they have taught him to jump,(not normally an issue with their father a Showjumping Olympic Gold Medal winner). He was quite a good flat horse and is receiving 6lbs from the 2 winners.

MISTY4ME

In Response to Re: N H SEASON:

In Response to N H SEASON : Hi Roger, 

The simplest one is to make sure the horses you back can jump!!!!
Posted by MISTY4ME

I think I need to listen to my own advice!!!

At least RESILIENCY will get a nice handicap mark with a couple more 'Easy' runs.

(:D}

EDIT:

.... and got more back with a well backed Gary Moore horse (5/1 into 11/4 fav) at PLUMPTON

MISTY4ME

Talking about in form Trainers, P.W.MIDDLETON's horses (who trains Vaigret's nap EXITAS) are running very well at the minute(3 winners and a 33/1 3rd). You can check the Trainer's form on sportinglife.com website by going onto the Racecards and clicking on the Trainer's name, and it will show where their last 50 runners or so have finished.

MISTY4ME

A couple of other things I always follow .........

Horses blinkered for the 1st time, especially Alan King's and Paul Nicholl's

and horses ridden by 10lb claimers (the stable's young Apprentices). A massive bonus especially in handicaps

vaigret

In Response to Re: N H SEASON:

Talking about in form Trainers, P.W.MIDDLETON's horses (who trains Vaigret's nap EXITAS) are running very well at the minute(3 winners and a 33/1 3rd). You can check the Trainer's form on sportinglife.com website by going onto the Racecards and clicking on the Trainer's name, and it will show where their last 50 runners or so have finished.
Posted by MISTY4ME

Well I put the mockers on that 

MISTY4ME

In Response to Re: N H SEASON:

In Response to Re: N H SEASON : Well I put the mockers on that 
Posted by vaigret

Yes sadly..... but his horse HOLLY BUSH HENRY won again.

vaigret

In Response to Re: N H SEASON:

In Response to Re: N H SEASON : Yes sadly..... but his horse HOLLY BUSH HENRY won again.
Posted by MISTY4ME

LOL did a double today Exitas (fell) and Aristocracy won 1st at Uttoxeter at 3-1 !!!!

MISTY4ME

Another pointer for you to look out for during the Jumps Season, and unfortunately we've missed a couple of Trebles already and it was from Perth yesterday that reminded me, is following/backing Brian Hughes (Jockey) riding at the Northern Jumps meetings, particularly in Scotland. He finished 2nd in the Jockeys title race last year and rode several trebles, 4-timers and a 5-timer. He is particularly good round Musselburgh, Perth, Kelso and Wetherby.

zadoc

In Response to Re: N H SEASON:

Another pointer for you to look out for during the Jumps Season, and unfortunately we've missed a couple of Trebles already and it was from Perth yesterday that reminded me, is following/backing Brian Hughes (Jockey) riding at the Northern Jumps meetings, particularly in Scotland. He finished 2nd in the Jockeys title race last year and rode several trebles, 4-timers and a 5-timer. He is particularly good round Musselburgh, Perth, Kelso and Wetherby.
Posted by MISTY4ME

GOOD INFO, MISTY , THANKS

vaigret

In Response to Re: N H SEASON:

Hi roger, I usually do well at start of season following horses ahead of the handicapper and once into season and you have seen more of the races other horses seem to come.  I will try to explain here and will use my nap for today Exitas as an example. This horse is very well handicapped on all form over hurdles and his last run showed he has taken to fences very well. The only problem today and one I will probably regret is that he has never won over this far.  So look at horses early on who have won a race and then look at how and at what trip. If they have won well over that trip they could go on again, if they do follow them at least until they lose. Over the last few seasons I have made a nice lot from horses that the "experts" think the handicapper has got or they are not as good as their win suggests. This leads them to being nice prices and staying ahead of the handicapper. Cant remember the names of all of them but I particularly remember a horse called Solway something or other that won four times on the trot and all over 5-1. Days of Heaven last spring was another . Others have been Aubusson, Boondooma and Flintham. Ok they might not have won lots on the trot but used to win one in three at nice prices whilst they were out of handicappers grip. Hope that helps and I think better than following market , although if a horse dives in price that usually means they are on a going day and backing them might be a good idea. Also dont lose faith if backing one of these and they lose. Watch the race after. So many horses are backed down to win because the trainer thinks they are fit only to find on the racetrack they blow up. I have backed a nice lot of winners next time out after seeing them swinging along with a couple of furlongs to go only to go out like a light when pressurised. They just need that severe blow to take them to next stage.  Hopethat useful and not teaching you to suck eggs Terry
Posted by vaigret

Also look out for horses who have had breathing Op. DOUBLE TREASURE won his last race last season and then had breathing op. Has now won twice easily this year. Got him today and he might still be ahead of the handicapper Roger.

zadoc

Hi TERRY

Was out today so did'nt see your post.

Nice price.

Roger

vaigret

In Response to Re: N H SEASON:

Hi TERRY Was out today so did'nt see your post. Nice price. Roger
Posted by zadoc

No problem Roger, it was after the event anyway as I just saw it as I was going through the races just before the off. 

Still breathing ops if you spot the info and this horse going forward still might have some play in them

daphne56

 I FIND BETTING SITES IE ATR OR R POST ARE VERY HELPFUL IF YOU LOOK EARLY 

 5 PM DAY BEFORE WHEN MOST COMPANYS HAVE FULL SHOWS WATCH OUT FOR 

 ONE CANNOT MENTION IT BUT STARTS WITH CO PRICE WILL BE A LOT LOWER 

 THAN THE REST HAVE HAD SOME VERY NICE WINNERS WITH THIS SYSTEM

Phantom66

As above the SL previews for the next day around 5pm will have some good value tips and as part of the SB&G family can't get in trouble for mentioning them.

I particularly like Ben Linfoot's "Value bets" and Murt Khan does well on the NH circuit.

Mr V's favourite trainer has a regular feature too - he is usually quite open with his horses relative chances.

Interesting article today with a few to watch and ante-post tips for some of the bigger races...

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/our-team's-winter-warmers/111360

(The forum s/w doesnt like the apostrophe so need to cut and paste the whole url from above to find it.)

Or just go to sporting life from tabs at top of page then click on Racing and it's the top article at the moment (Our team's winter warmers)

MISTY4ME

As well as looking out for 10lb claimers rides (particularly in handicaps), two really good Conditional Jockeys to watch for this Jumps season are:-

JAMES BOWEN (currently claiming 7lb) who I'm sure will be riding for Paul Nicholls in handicaps, 

and SEAN HOULIHAN (also currently claiming 7lb) who is based with Philip Hobbs.