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Using equity as it's best post flop
craigcu12
Member Posts: 3,961
One of the causes of my bad runs tends to be purely guessing and hoping for the right thing to happen when value betting. cbetting or hero calling. The times I've lost money with that hand will be quickly be forgot about to begin with but as the days pass by I'll begin to question my game and begin to avoid playing hands such as 109s Axs KQo or AJo at times I'll even fold hands like AQs or AKs, the only hands I feel like playing will be PP since the big ones will still be ahead on most flops and the small ones can be a simple Ch/F when they miss the set.
The time I have this problem the most is against recs, because any flop my broadway hand missed spells trouble, all I have in mind at the moment is do I cbet it and hope they fold or do I ch it and hope they ch back.
If they were to actually call my cbet on the flop I will often have myself in a spot of bother on the turn where my card hasn't come and I've end up regretting a cbet on the flop and If I ch the flop and face a blocker bet I end up starting to wish I had actually cbet myself so I could reduce his range by getting rid of the totally raggy hands rather than face a mid bet knowing he could be holding junk.
I'm looking into some simple equations I can use to help me know more clearly how often a player needs to fold taking into account how many outs I'll have to improve on the turn and how good those card will be for me on the turn taking into account the opponents overall range.
The time I have this problem the most is against recs, because any flop my broadway hand missed spells trouble, all I have in mind at the moment is do I cbet it and hope they fold or do I ch it and hope they ch back.
If they were to actually call my cbet on the flop I will often have myself in a spot of bother on the turn where my card hasn't come and I've end up regretting a cbet on the flop and If I ch the flop and face a blocker bet I end up starting to wish I had actually cbet myself so I could reduce his range by getting rid of the totally raggy hands rather than face a mid bet knowing he could be holding junk.
I'm looking into some simple equations I can use to help me know more clearly how often a player needs to fold taking into account how many outs I'll have to improve on the turn and how good those card will be for me on the turn taking into account the opponents overall range.
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| smoki3 | Small blind | 10.00 | 10.00 | 6550.00 | |
| davidson09 | Big blind | 20.00 | 30.00 | 4440.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| craigcu12 | Raise | 60.00 | 90.00 | 4990.00 | |
| leeahick26 | Call | 60.00 | 150.00 | 5575.00 | |
| mrmac82 | Fold | ||||
| ConFushon | Fold | ||||
| smoki3 | Fold | ||||
| davidson09 | Call | 40.00 | 190.00 | 4400.00 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| davidson09 | Check | ||||
| craigcu12 | Bet | 95.00 | 285.00 | 4895.00 | |
| leeahick26 | Call | 95.00 | 380.00 | 5480.00 | |
| davidson09 | Call | 95.00 | 475.00 | 4305.00 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| davidson09 | Check | ||||
| craigcu12 | Bet | 180.00 | 655.00 | 4715.00 | |
| leeahick26 | Call | 180.00 | 835.00 | 5300.00 | |
| davidson09 | Call | 180.00 | 1015.00 | 4125.00 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| davidson09 | Check | ||||
| craigcu12 | Check | ||||
| leeahick26 | Check | ||||
| davidson09 | Show |
| |||
| craigcu12 | Muck |
| |||
| leeahick26 | Show |
| |||
| davidson09 | Win | Pair of 8s | 507.50 | 4632.50 | |
| leeahick26 | Win | Pair of 8s | 507.50 | 5807.50 | |
Comments
Just a starter to outline the fundamentals of what you are asking -
So a hand range is a set of holdings your opponent's have based on their positions and actions in the given hand.
Pot equity is the share of the total pot.
probably the most important thing for MTT players is Fold equity which is the % of times you win the pot without showdown.
Lastly is your expected value know by regs as E.V which is the average win/loss on a specific hand.
using combinatorics (combs of cards) in the deck, you can work out high equity situations post flop.
Equity should always be the 1st thing you think about before you check, bet or fold.
Fold equity can be solved by using basic algebra.
X = Break even Folding %
P = pot size
L = Maximum Loss
V = Villain's Equity
W = Maximum Gain
H= Hero's Equity
As a formula -
0 = XP + (1 - X) (-LV + WH)
If you don't want to do the formula's they have some on-line programs to help,
but I would recommend doing them so you can know how they are done and understand them.
This is not my creation its been around for a long time and you need to learn it to climb the poker ladder.
it takes a lot of hard work so you need to apply yourself GL.
Binks.
I'm trying to write down each and every individual part of the overall equity onto an excel spreadsheet in stages which I'll then combine together at the end.
Rather than putting the entire equity together in one equasion I'm trying to break them down into lots of smaller equations which I'll combine together once I get an understanding
Starting off with as a pure bluff my aggression on the flop would require the opponents to fold 95/190 which is 50% of the time. The fact I could hit an A or Q on the turn reduces that percentage but how much I don't know
Once I a clear idea of that part of the formula I'd then start to bring into account the opponents range of hands and work out the fold equity from their
In the exact hand against players who are extremely fit fold you can get away with c-betting any board this dry and expect to make money.
When players start to contest a bit more you need to think about what hands make the most sense to bluff. In this case we want to be using hands that can bet turn at a higher frequency as our bluffs, to put pressure on their wider range. So hands with a backdoor flush draw and 2 overs will make better bluffs than AQo here, because there's more turns we are able to bet as a bluff, (hands where we improve to a flush draw, maybe gutshot). They make better bluffs than AQo which only has 6 outs to a good hand and not many good cards to bluff on. Using backdoor equity can build the pot for when we do improve, as say we hit out flush on the river we will almost always have the best hand. (whereas if we barrel AQ and hit an A we will usually be good but much less often)
You also need to be aware of what cards are good for villain's ranges. If a 4 peels off on this turn for example, it seems unlikely that villain's are going to fold the turn at a super high frequency when you think about how their range is constructed and what hands they are calling the flop with. ( wheel gutshots, A3, A4 stuff top pairs, middle pairs which turn straight outs, straight draws which are now straights, etc) On the flip side if the turn comes a king it's much better for your range as it's harder for them to have a king in their hand when they call flop, unless it is K8s or k5s. (perhaps only suited versions in bb's range, and likely no versions in hijacks range unless he is playing too many hands; and if he is there's plenty more nonsense in his range anyway that can't handle a lot of aggression). You are going to have much much much more Kx in your range when you cbet this flop than they do when they call the flop. Their KJ KQ KT type hands are going to fold flop; yours might bet it as a bluff. If we think the villain's are capable of folding an 8 to further aggression it could be a reasonable spot to fire twice when the turn is a K. If villain's are calling us too wide in this spot we can maximise value by weighting our barrels to value bets, and going 3 streets much thinner. A lot of our decisions should be adjustments to our opponent's, although we should have a default strategy which we use.
Poker is a multi-street game and you need to be thinking of what your plans are on later streets, rather than betting just because we raised preflop and not really knowing what to do on a lot of turns. It's completely fine to raise preflop and check/fold, depending on the opponent's range and the board texture. some boards are just better for your opponents and leave you with an unprofitable cbet opportunity. Checking AQo to check fold on this texture is completely fine, as you have plenty of hands you can use as bluffs which are better, any 2 overs with a backdoor flushdraw, and hands like t9s and jt that can improve to straight draws. Although betting can't be horrible either. If we were in position in this spot betting becomes a nicer option to bet as opposed to OOP, as it allows us to see 2 cards for one bet a lot of the time, allowing us to realise our equity better. If you cbet too wide in a lot of spots good players can and will exploit you though. Thinking about the game in the right way is much more useful in my opinion then doing equations and stuff to discover cbetting AQo here is 0.09bb better as a bet than as a check, vs the average villain's continuing frequency, as long as you play turns and rivers well. When you make a decision try and think of what you are trying to achieve when doing so, and why you are doing what you're doing.
^^^^
That's a great post by @FeelGroggy
We are so very lucky that the more gifted players take so much time & effort to help us strugglers.
For me, this line summed it up beautifully;
"....Thinking about the game in the right way is much more useful in my opinion then doing equations and stuff to discover cbetting AQo here is 0.09bb....."
And of course it is SO dependant on game flow, quality of opponent, etc.
Nice one Groggs.
Ill always go out of my way to read his posts because I realize the value of his knowledge.
Thanks Groggy.
The same applies to you JJ, that was a great post you wrote, very very helpful.
Some run outs are just terrible for our hand, that is just part of the game. Sometimes we have a great run out to bluff. It is also key to get a feeling for our opponents tendencies, is no point making a great bluff if you know your opponent wont fold bottom pair.
Also if you are playing a really narrow range of cards like you suggested then you will struggle to get action.
I used thursday's freeroll to play some hands in a LAG manner, today I did some EV calculations on them and have gained a great idea on how often players need to fold for that to work. The more of this I do in post analsis the easier it is for me to play non PP and bet in a manner which keeps me EV.
This problem with struggling to play the likes of AK or AQ is related to bad players more than anyone, if I raise with this hand and miss I feel lost, Now that I have an idea of EV I'll be able to include these equasions during game analsis and know how good or poor my aggression really is and where I lose my money and where I make it.
This hand I've analzed from the freeroll has made me discover my all in was alot worse that expected. I've worked out that even a 40% fold would have resulted in a -EV. The more I use this during analsis the better my decisions will be
you only need to take down the pot 40% of the time with a bluff for it to be profitable.
I would say start bluffing more rivers vs the right players.
This was a big leak in my game and some thing that had a big effect on my win rate when i changed it, I now know if I put players in tough spots a lot of the time I'm playing well.
Its not a direct answer to the question above in a vacuum its more of a reasoning to why you should be bluffing more than you are, on turns and rivers over the long term.
the hands I thought call the flop but fold the turn are Jxs Q10 A10 A6 and flush draws. His Kx I think would call most days and most of them I'm thinking will be mid to weak Kx as TP.
it seems to me your 'over complicating' things much more than you need to. I think you need to break things down and simplify everything to have a clearer, less muddled thought process. yes poker is very complex but its only as hard as you make it. start at the beginning, get the fundamentals right and build from there.
in the above hand im actually on board with how you played it, maybe for different reasons but i like it.
a few key factors you need to know at all times.
- effective stacks
- perceived range
- perceived image
A2s is a good steal from CO but once called form SB we try to assign a range:
i would suggest a competent player (vs me or most aggro regs), given stacks would re-steal from the SB at quite a high frequency, because stacks are too shallow to have 3b/folds, villain will rip with all hands he perceives to be ahead of our CO open range.
in general SB ranges are pretty tight (or should be) but as id expect SB to re-steal with hands he thinks are ahead of our open then in this case i would assign a weaker range from possibly a weaker player who has a hand which he/she thinks is not strong enough to jam but too good to fold.
on this board we have significant range advantage as all the good hands should jam pre.
our actual hand also has a lot of equity on this flop so will be happy to commit chips.
at first glance of the hand i thought i would prefer a larger flop sizing to commit ourselves if c/raised. betting something like pot would comfortably gets stacks in without over jammin the turn, but this has some issues....
as most strong hands would go all in pre i dont see many decent hands that would c/raise now and expect to be called by worse.
so given our range advantage and raw equity of our hand i like betting but betting small. this does widen villains calling range but will be forced to fold their already weak range if we decide to over-bet the turn whereas if we bet say full pot OTF... now villain may feel pot committed with the weaker part of his flop calling range they otherwise may of folded. so our line to bet small and overbet turn increases our fold equity while maintaining our actual equity if called.
this is why i much prefer your line but its important to always have a plan and reasons why you make certain plays. there's a lot more things that we could break down and analyse about every hand but keep it simple and start by building ranges etc
you don't need to over worry yourself by understanding all the formulas and EV calcs just yet.
IMO just play poker, you'll get to know what works and what hands are right in certain situations and build good fundamentals