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** JACKPOT SYNDICATE ** STAYORGO PERM SANITY CHECK THREAD ** THREE PERM OPTION **
StayOrGo
Member Posts: 12,181
I decided to do a separate Sanity Check for a 3 perm structure:
1) Are all horses 2/1 or less in all perms? (some exceptions if against an odds on shot/short priced favourite as banker) (Standard should be YES)
2) Is anything 10/1 or greater in more than one perm? (Standard should be NO)
3) Are all semi-bankers that are selected, favourite at the time of bet placement, named or un-named? (Standard should be YES, although sometimes affected by NAP's, REMOVALS and market moves)
4) Are all NAP's 10/1 or less in at least one perm? (Standard should be YES, although occasionally won't be able to accommodate)
5) Are all horses with zero or one removers in at least one perm? (Standard should be YES unless big drifter)
6) Is every horse 7/1 or less in at least one perm? (Standard = Yes)
7) Is every horse that is between 10/3 and 5/1 and has less than 50% removal in at least two perms? (Standard should be YES unless drifter)
8) Have late market movers, drifter's and springer's, been taken into consideration? (Always should be YES)
9) Does the structure allow for balance and wide equity? (ie If horse A is in two perms in LEG 1, are those two perms then significantly different to have wide coverage, and so on till leg 6, as much as is achievable) (Standard should be YES)
10) Are all horses 9/4 to 3/1 in at least 2 perms?
11) Looking at each leg, in each perm in isolation, is at least 40% of the betting market covered? (Standard should be YES)
12) Are horses 1/2 or less banker in two perms? (Standard should be YES, sometimes in all three)
13) Are horses 4/5 or less banker in one perm? (Standard should be YES, sometimes will be in two)
14) Is coverage counter-balanced (number of selections wise), in the competitive handicaps? (Standard should be YES)
15) Have horses that may be over or under subscribed (for various reasons), been identified and perms adjusted accordingly? (Standard should be YES)
16) Are horses that have been removed by over 50% of people only in two perms or less? (Standard should be YES, unless springer)
1) Are all horses 2/1 or less in all perms? (some exceptions if against an odds on shot/short priced favourite as banker) (Standard should be YES)
2) Is anything 10/1 or greater in more than one perm? (Standard should be NO)
3) Are all semi-bankers that are selected, favourite at the time of bet placement, named or un-named? (Standard should be YES, although sometimes affected by NAP's, REMOVALS and market moves)
4) Are all NAP's 10/1 or less in at least one perm? (Standard should be YES, although occasionally won't be able to accommodate)
5) Are all horses with zero or one removers in at least one perm? (Standard should be YES unless big drifter)
6) Is every horse 7/1 or less in at least one perm? (Standard = Yes)
7) Is every horse that is between 10/3 and 5/1 and has less than 50% removal in at least two perms? (Standard should be YES unless drifter)
8) Have late market movers, drifter's and springer's, been taken into consideration? (Always should be YES)
9) Does the structure allow for balance and wide equity? (ie If horse A is in two perms in LEG 1, are those two perms then significantly different to have wide coverage, and so on till leg 6, as much as is achievable) (Standard should be YES)
10) Are all horses 9/4 to 3/1 in at least 2 perms?
11) Looking at each leg, in each perm in isolation, is at least 40% of the betting market covered? (Standard should be YES)
12) Are horses 1/2 or less banker in two perms? (Standard should be YES, sometimes in all three)
13) Are horses 4/5 or less banker in one perm? (Standard should be YES, sometimes will be in two)
14) Is coverage counter-balanced (number of selections wise), in the competitive handicaps? (Standard should be YES)
15) Have horses that may be over or under subscribed (for various reasons), been identified and perms adjusted accordingly? (Standard should be YES)
16) Are horses that have been removed by over 50% of people only in two perms or less? (Standard should be YES, unless springer)
Comments
Early thoughts on AYR tomorrow (15/01/18.)
AYR is a "probable" GO-LIVE tomorrow, due to a reasonable roll over and the small fields.
The reason that it is not a definite GO-LIVE is that there is no clear semi-banker.
Typically I like at least one odds on shot to be on the card.
I am hoping that there may be a few non-runners or market moves that may bring at least one horse on the card, close to odds on, if not actually odds on.
I'd probably accept 11/8 or less for it to be a semi-banker in one perm. (An 11/8 shot covers approx 38% of the betting market based on an over-round of approx 110% - 112%, so would "almost" meet criteria number eleven in the OP, a 5/4 shot on it's own would meet criteria number 11.
It is looking, at this stage as if the three perm option will be used, mainly due to only having one semi-banker at best, however I will reserve judgement on this until I see how the market manifests. If nothing comes down to 11/8 or less, then we may need to go without a semi-banker, but this restricts options elsewhere, so is not ideal.
IF we don't have a clear semi-banker then we may still go for it, but it will be tough to meet all of the 16 criteria above, so it will be a case of getting as close as we can to it.
Before I place the perms, I will check them against the criteria above, and shortly after the first race, I will list any exceptions here, and the reason for those exceptions.
I think this will focus my mind and also provide some understanding to others, of the decisions made, and the thought processes behind them.
It will hopefully also help to prevent oversights.
GL us!
1) Are all horses 2/1 or less in all perms? (some exceptions if against an odds on shot/short priced favourite as banker) (Standard should be YES)
YES
2) Is anything 10/1 or greater in more than one perm? (Standard should be NO)
NO
3) Are all semi-bankers that are selected, favourite at the time of bet placement, named or un-named? (Standard should be YES, although sometimes affected by NAP's, REMOVALS and market moves)
YES (Only semi-banker is RAISED ON GRAZEON, which at time of writing is 2/1 FAV)
4) Are all NAP's 10/1 or less in at least one perm? (Standard should be YES, although occasionally won't be able to accommodate)
NO (Exception, There was insufficient bandwidth for NORTHERN GIRL , in the 1.45pm
5) Are all horses with zero or one removers in at least one perm? (Standard should be YES unless big drifter)
YES
6) Is every horse 7/1 or less in at least one perm? (Standard = Yes)
NO (Exception, NANDO, initial drifter, was backed last minute, but too late to change, fortunately only 2nd.
7) Is every horse that is between 10/3 and 5/1 and has less than 50% removal in at least two perms? (Standard should be YES unless drifter)
NO (Exception, DAKOTA GREY only in one, drifter)
8) Have late market movers, drifter's and springer's, been taken into consideration? (Always should be YES)
YES
9) Does the structure allow for balance and wide equity? (ie If horse A is in two perms in LEG 1, are those two perms then significantly different to have wide coverage, and so on till leg 6, as much as is achievable) (Standard should be YES)
YES, but limited due to only one semi-banker
10) Are all horses 9/4 to 3/1 in at least 2 perms?
YES (Unfortunately meeting this stat meant we only had GRAND MORNING in two perms)
11) Looking at each leg, in each perm in isolation, is at least 40% of the betting market covered? (Standard should be YES)
NO (Only 30% covered in RAISED ON GRAZEON banker leg, and a few other legs only have 35% coverage, it was the best I could do without any odd-on shots on the card)
12) Are horses 1/2 or less banker in two perms? (Standard should be YES, sometimes in all three)
N/A
13) Are horses 4/5 or less banker in one perm? (Standard should be YES, sometimes will be in two)
N/A
14) Is coverage counter-balanced (number of selections wise), in the competitive handicaps? (Standard should be YES)
YES
15) Have horses that may be over or under subscribed (for various reasons), been identified and perms adjusted accordingly? (Standard should be YES)
YES, to a degree, probably should only have PADDLING in one perm as big drifter, and will almost certainly be over-subscribed, but two NAP's so left it in two perms.
16) Are horses that have been removed by over 50% of people only in two perms or less? (Standard should be YES, unless springer)
YES