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Hit my ace, facing a river shove!
K0BAYASHl
Member Posts: 2,027
I messed this hand up completely, it was late last night, (this morning). I was tired and this was a £1/£2 Spin up table. I dont have any notes on him, although i know his a reg. We are playing 4 handed, I can only think that he called with 55 or 88 pre and hit set. I think my check on turn shows weakness, So he could be doing this with anything. I don't really understand why I called turn and not river. Because river doesn't change anything. Surly I should be calling river if I am calling turn. River shove to me either looks like his flopped set and trying to get value from me having Ax or he is trying to get me off a weaker A. I believe X probably sees me as a bad reg ( which im not saying im not lol) So i think he is thinking i will pay him off with an A.
Also if the regs sees this and gives me his thought process that would be good
Also if the regs sees this and gives me his thought process that would be good
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K0BAYASHl | Small blind | £1.00 | £1.00 | £359.35 | |
| Thoich | Big blind | £2.00 | £3.00 | £18.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| yellaa | Fold | ||||
| x | Raise | £4.00 | £7.00 | £110.80 | |
| K0BAYASHl | Raise | £7.00 | £14.00 | £352.35 | |
| Thoich | Fold | ||||
| x | Call | £4.00 | £18.00 | £106.80 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| K0BAYASHl | Bet | £9.00 | £27.00 | £343.35 | |
| x | Call | £9.00 | £36.00 | £97.80 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| K0BAYASHl | Check | ||||
| x | Bet | £20.00 | £56.00 | £77.80 | |
| K0BAYASHl | Call | £20.00 | £76.00 | £323.35 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| K0BAYASHl | Check | ||||
| x | All-in | £77.80 | £153.80 | £0.00 | |
| K0BAYASHl | Fold | ||||
| x | Muck | ||||
| x | Win | £74.20 | £74.20 | ||
| x | Return | £77.80 | £1.80 | £152.00 | |
Comments
1) Don't play spin ups
2) Your pre flop 3bet size is horrible - it needs to be more like £12-£16 and I would lean towards the upper end of that personally. His opening range will of course be super wide on the btn and your min click back will not have narrowed it one bit - the price you have laid him makes it just plain stupid for him to fold anything he has opened with.
3) Your flop cbet is fine but it can be good to have some checks here too for a bit of balance. It's a relatively dry board so there aren't too many draws the villain is peeling with. Given the pre flop 3bet size he could also have smashed this board - 55, 88 and all the possible 2 pair combos will be in his range and will likely be flatting to keep your bluffs in (especially at these stack depths).
4) Completely agree that calling the turn only to fold river is kind of ugly. I doubt villain starts value betting his medium strength showdown hands here (99, 77, weak Ax hands etc.) and the 4 also completes the most obvious draw out there. He's already starting to look fairly polarised at this point to me and, unfortunately, I don't see him having too much total air that chooses to float that flop. Check folding here feels pretty bad but the small 3bet pre makes this situation more difficult than it should be - you'd be folding out a lot of his possible value combos on this board pre flop otherwise. Check folding might feel uncomfortably nitty but, as played, I'm not hating it.
5) The river jam just confirms everything I'm feeling on the turn. Is he ever doing this with AT or worse for value? I doubt it frankly, and would expect all Ax hands that you're ahead of to just be taking their showdown value at this point. If he is going for some thin-ish value with a worse Ace then I think his sizing would be smaller. Your hand is a bluff catcher and I'm just not sure what reasonable bluffs are left in the villains range.
That's my take on it anyway.
Yours sincerely,
Bad Reg
Normally i probably would have raised to £14 - £18,
Thanks for your reply dues
also ifs he good you gave him the white flag to empty the clip on you with the turn check on that run out.
would go more in to detail but don't want to clue you up
this is assuming villain has his ranges balanced -
it seems leading 25% pot has a slight higher EV than checking but its very close -
Beting flop holds a 8.02 EV with the 25% sizing vs 7.88 EV if we check
if we bet 50% pot the GTO math would be to check 75% and bet 25% of the time for balancing our checking range.
EVs of both are the same 7.88 each
post flop - as played on the turn the EVs of betting and checking are again exactly the same 12.12 each
but we should be using an optimal size of 50% pot and bet 84% of the time and checking 16% of the time.
however if we check as we have in the hand the EV of calling to raising is 7.38 for a call and 4.59 for a raise,
check call by far the highest EV line in a GTO aspect -
The river is were it become interesting -
again from a GTO solution the numbers suggest leading 25% has a very slightly higher EV than checking so EV for leading 25% pot is 17.38
and checking would be an EV of 17.19 - if we kept to our 50% sizing and considered betting river, it should be 100% check on the river from a GTO point of view.
so when he shoves for 77.80 -
the EV for call and fold -
Call is 0.01EV
Fold is 0.00 EV
so from a GTO point you made no mistake on the river by folding.
hope that help, should put your mind at rest.
GL
Binks.
I'm genuinely new to playing online poker and wish to become better at analysing my options. Is there a good, idiot proof glossary for all of the term/acronyms available?? ( or a book/youtube/etc you would recommend)
Thanks in anticipation
If you list down any questions you have I would be more than happy to answer them if I can - in the easiest way I can explain them.
Binks.
the small 1/4 flop bet has higher EV because you increase the calling range i guess but there going to have a lot higher EV then youve said the pot pre flop is £18 and not sure why is less the half that pot size? id expect most Ax to have EVof around pot size on this board.
i get betting 1/2 pot and splitting range between bets and checks seems good ..
again not sure about turn EV calc and how they can be the same, for this i guess we have to check call all rivers and expect to bluff catch correctly against some bluffing range that decides to ship, i just dont see it tbh..
the optimal line you suggested would be bet 1/4 pot , bet 1/2 pot the bet 1/4 pot and have EV of zero which i just dont ever see being correct but not sure if im understanding wrong, seem a good spot/hand to discuss
Your 3bet size makes sense now then. I did a double take when I first looked at the hand history - I'd always had you down as a good player and was slightly stunned to see you making such a horrible looking play
@JJBinks, just out of curiosity, what software (if any) are you using when running your numbers? Piosolver, Snowie, or something else? I've yet to really play around with any of these myself and was wondering how good you were finding which ever particular toy(s) you've been using.
I use 2 programs - GTORangeBuilder and snowie - ran the hand through both and both come out with the same solution.
I would say that GTO range builder tends to be spot on more than snowie, but snowie is better for quicker away from table study work visualizing ranges ect. GTO range builder can take a long time to build a GTO tree on each hand.
Will address each point you raised here, need a bit of time, in deep in a few MTTs on other sites,
Thanks
Binks.
if we used a pot sized bet on the flop or anything bigger than 50% it would be very hard to balance on that dry board and stepping out of a gto range if that makes sense .
Love you really Koby.
I've yet to really play around with solvers myself except for a tiny bit of fiddling with the free version of Piosolver. I just tend to feel that if I'm sat on a table that is really going to require me to be playing GTO then it's probably time for me to GTFO!
So as played are you all calling turn and river? jamming his raise on turn? Or calling turn folding river like a bad reg lol