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Can I have some help here please?
MISTY4ME
Member Posts: 6,317
This was in last night's VEGAS Quarter-Final
There were 10 or 11 of us left and I was in 5th spot with 5 seats available and a bit of cash for 6th. 'Lucky Lollo' (as Dollie christened him earlier! ) was starting to get really aggro (as he does) and put me in this spot. I wasn't sure if he had Ax 'coz he had been Open Shoving too. In the end I decided not to risk the 1275 chips to call..... but I really did want to as it would have only dropped me to 6th at the time, though the River might have got me in more trouble.
Can some of you good players give me some help here please? ...... and I'm sorry about the posts in BBV Matt
There were 10 or 11 of us left and I was in 5th spot with 5 seats available and a bit of cash for 6th. 'Lucky Lollo' (as Dollie christened him earlier! ) was starting to get really aggro (as he does) and put me in this spot. I wasn't sure if he had Ax 'coz he had been Open Shoving too. In the end I decided not to risk the 1275 chips to call..... but I really did want to as it would have only dropped me to 6th at the time, though the River might have got me in more trouble.
Can some of you good players give me some help here please? ...... and I'm sorry about the posts in BBV Matt
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XBOOTNECK | Small blind | 150.00 | 150.00 | 6092.50 | |
| MISTY4ME | Big blind | 300.00 | 450.00 | 5640.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| loololollo | Raise | 600.00 | 1050.00 | 8560.00 | |
| craigcooke | Fold | ||||
| tai-gar | Fold | ||||
| XBOOTNECK | Fold | ||||
| MISTY4ME | Call | 300.00 | 1350.00 | 5340.00 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| MISTY4ME | Check | ||||
| loololollo | Bet | 600.00 | 1950.00 | 7960.00 | |
| MISTY4ME | Call | 600.00 | 2550.00 | 4740.00 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| MISTY4ME | Check | ||||
| loololollo | Bet | 1275.00 | 3825.00 | 6685.00 | |
| MISTY4ME | Fold | ||||
| loololollo | Muck | ||||
| loololollo | Win | 2550.00 | 9235.00 | ||
| loololollo | Return | 1275.00 | 0.00 | 10510.00 | |
Comments
We're just gonna whiff so many flops, or hit flops sideways like this where we have no idea where we are. We can also flop well and be crushed.
Chip preservation is crucial so as nitty as it sounds, I think I'm leaning towards a fold pre.
Obv an easy peel if it was a normal MTT
As I told you recently, Lollo had about 800 chip head up, I had over 6k and he still beat me!! he does go very aggressive late on and 'think' he widens his range; normally i feel he's playing so many tables he only seems to bet with a limited no of hands
Like WIll, I can only say , if it was me either pre or post flop, i would have 3 bet lollo's 600
then subject to his move, determines my next play...if he calls, next card but in all likelihood if he re-raises or shoves, I fold
Then again what do I know... I call a 45 , then call a post flop, post turn, then shove after I luckily get my straight on the river.....I can still hear the gnashing of teeth up north!!!
You wanted replies from good players! Sorry for wasting your time.......
I think there's merit to shoving wide preflop in these kind of spots against players who are trying to exploit the bubble/ their table, by opening far too wide, but realise that raise calling is ICM suicide, so end up raise folding most of their range, although something that plays as nicely as KTcc feels better as a call when we have so many other hands we could play as shoves.
In fact if he's mixing between open jamming and min raising, then it makes his min-raise range even weaker, as he is likely jamming his strong but not nutted hands like AT AJ, maybe AQ and maybe hands like 22-99 that he doesn't want to raise call with cos ICM, or raise fold with because they're good hands, and so when he mins he's more weighted to raise folds. (his range will look different depending on where he open shoved from)
If we find just a weak Ax in the BB here and he's opening wide, it should do quite well as a jam, as it makes it less likely he has a hand in his induce range, blocking AA/AK, and still having about 28% when called by KK QQ JJ TT and AK. (suit dependent) Most the time we just pick up the pot uncontested as he's gonna have some suited junk or JT type hand that just folds. Even if he is min-raising hands like AT, AJ, KQ, he shouldn't be able to call off because ICM, and those hands shouldn't perform well enough vs the average person's 20blind bb shove to justify the ICM of calling. If we suspect he is more polarized with his opens we can even use it as a 3bet fold and not risk our stack as a jam, as his steals will fold and his nutted hands will jam.
It is also perfectly possible that the tournament isn't that significant to him and its one of many he's playing and he isn't bothered about ICM until it gets closer to the money and is just playing his default style. Jamming wide would also be worse if he just min raise calls hands like AJ, AQ 88 99 in this spot, or doesn't open as wide as you think he does.
You need to be careful in satellites who you jam wide against, as some players won't adjust making it terrible for both you and them. vs a reg jamming should be quite effective as they tend to open wider and also realise they can't raise call wide unless they have a pretty strong hand, which they won't often if they open wide!
As played this is a mandatory call 2 streets situation when we turn the equity of our draw, combined with the fact he sometimes bluffs and we have plenty of rivers to improve on, and would feel quite happy folding to a river jam on bricks.
......and that's a great and very detailed explanation Groggy.
It's so good to have help and hear what much better players think and the reasoning behind it, and it's what makes SKY POKER such a great site to play on.
I'm pretty sure Groggy has explained everything there, but if anyone else has further ideas, please carry on posting.
Just a quick couple of observations.
1) I'm not a fan of calling pre for some of the reasons stated above, but primarily because it is so difficult to know where you stand, especially if you hit. (I think calling with "pretty hands" is a common mistake people make. It's not what it costs you to call, it's what it CAN cost you if you hit, hard not to go broke on a King or Ten high flop or chasing a draw)
2) With the stacks I wouldn't get cute and 3bet pre as you would almost have to call a shove, so I fold pre. If his raise was on the button or in the small blind, I probably shove pre, but being UTG, it's a fold for me. Always worth remembering (imo anyway) that you should fold more than you raise and raise more than you call.
3) But continuing as played. I'd probably float the flop as you did (but really not happy.) You can pretty much guarantee that LOLLOL is c-betting almost all his range, so I would float flop and re-evaluate on turn.
4) When the turn comes another club, I would check/raise all in. I think unless he has an Ace or better he will fold (I'd say about 50% of the time), also a good player (even an aggressive one, may well fold Ax hands, as you are representing a set or two pair. If you do get called by one pair Ax hands, you still have 14 outs, so a 30% chance of winning the hand. Also, if you are called and happen to win, when you next make the same move with a made hand, they will more than likely call. It adds to a level of unpredictability that could work to your future benefit, especially in a small pool of players like on Sky, where everyone know's each other. But even in isolation, I think the check/raise all in on the turn is the play. Yes he was UTG, but 5 handed and an aggressive player means he doesn't have to have Ax.
5) If you don't want to make the ALL IN play on the turn, then I feel you must at least call, as you have implied odds to do so. Although as I said at the start of this, the problem started pre flop, by calling. If you ask anyone I helped coach, they will tell you that I recommend anything BUT calling in these types of situations. Sometimes, even dare I say, most times, the play that feels most "comfortable" is not the "right" play.
That's my opinion, for what it's worth.
Cheers,
G
Footnote: With these types of hands KTS, KJs, QJs etc, the "default" play for a lot of people is to call. I do NOT like this, in general, based on stacks, table position, dynamics etc, you should either fold or 3bet these hands. The MIDDLE OF THE ROAD "CALLING" play, is often THE WRONG play IMO. In a vacuum, with the hands above, in six handed play, I am probably 3betting, 50%, folding 35% and calling 15% with the above type of hands. Generally if the raise is UTG or UTG+1 then I prefer to fold unless my opponent is a serial opener who often folds to 3bets. Regarding calling, if I am to call at all, I'd rather do it with 87s, 98s (although can 3bet these too), but these hands are easier to get away from than the KTs type hands and they can also take down a monster.