Channing Betting Edges

Dr_Noob

Afternoon Neil,
Any current sports edges are more than welcomed and would be interesting to read, for sure.

Thanks

MISTY4ME

Neil was on RacingUK's 'Betting Lab' yesterday and his horse racing tip for today was RAVEN'S LADY who has just won at Kempton @ 7/1......... Nice one NEIL thank you.
Wish I'd done a reverse forecast with PIPER'S NOTE which wasTony Calvin's tip from the show too.
Straight Forecast paid £93.25

NChanning

Glad you got on that one Misty, good to know someone was watching.

Thanks also for taking the effort to come here and ask the question Dr_Noob. It certainly felt like a question that was too difficult for Twitter.

In terms of really specific edges it's always tricky to comment. Clearly if I was to say I always do such and such and that's how I get my living then either the bookmaker offering whatever it is could easily see that and take evasive action or other punters could read it and actively compete with me.

This is one of the age-old questions that Joe Beevers and I faced when we decided to start a tipping site, (If you're so clever why don't you just bet on all the things and win millions, why would you share with us). The answer there is that we do bet on all the things but we only give tips on markets that are extremely liquid, like football to win the game or Asian handicaps, horse-racing at big meetings, golf majors and the NFL. We have been winning on those things so I guess I should be happy to share how I think we do that...

In football I don't have a huge opinion I follow a few other people and my decision is just made on how much to stake, when to ignore one of the people and what to do when they contradict. In general they pick in two ways. A couple of the guys are very much "Moneyball" people, into analytics, looking at shot quality and that sort of thing while the other main guy is more into looking at individual components of each game...for example he looks at such diverse factors as the increased home advantage some teams have due to travel conditions in small obscure league, there are teams in Nordic countries who play part of their season on turf and part on artificial pitches and the total goals massively vary but the market overlooks this etc. Both ways seem to work and can beat what some think of as a "perfect" and totally liquid market...

NChanning

...The horse racing at big meetings is a combination of the inherent edge we get from the inefficiency of the each-way market, (1/4 1234 in a 16-runner handicap offers a massive edge to punters for example), and attempting to bet against overreactions and recency bias, (most of my edge is an attempt to benefit from a market bias created by people just getting a bit carried away). I also tend to think that markets that are illiquid in the run up to a big race are often slow to react and "come into line" on the big day and that can offer an edge, maybe because, for example, the ground has changed on the day.

In golf we have a combination often of great each-way terms that are designed as a promotional loss-leader and therefore are automatically offering value and the opportunity to try to avoid betting with the crowd. Often I find a group of pundits will group around a few selected players and there can be great value just outside of that group. In general my approach is to look for players who are solid to place and just hope to get the odd winner here and there.

NFL is a sport where recency is the punters' enemy. I think if you simply bet against all the teams that won by 20 the week before you'd be fine. The market has more recreational money relative to professional money than any other and that means the traps that recreationals fall into, like betting a lot of overs and favourites, tend to be the ones to avoid.

I hope that helped and it was worth waiting for.

MattBates

Surely you go for the horses with a name you like and teams that play in colours you prefer?

TheMadMonk

There was a guy back in the day who made a lot of money betting on the lower Scottish leagues football,
Then and still sometimes today,the bookies were putting to much importance on whether the team were playing at home or away,when they were putting up the odds,
In Scotland outside the premier league ,most of the games only have a few hundred supporters at them,some under 100 so being home or away doesn't make a massive difference ,like it does in bigger leagues with a crowd behind you to give you a lift.

JohnConnor

Both posts excellent reads for anybody interested in betting - thank you.

Goody_Ace

I know 2 ex professional footballers. One of them played at the highest level
I asked them both if the crowd ever affected them.
They both said absolutely. Positively and negatively.
Booing really does put them off their stride.

NChanning

The fella with the Scottish leagues won a lot of money. Runs a tipping service but I think a lot of his edge on that stuff has gone now. He was very quick to spot that the guys playing away are having a nice day off, maybe away from the part time job that people in those leagues had, away from the kids and the Mrs and they got to have a friendly game of cards and a coach journey while the home team might have just finished their postal round and had to rush to the ground where the 65 fans made little difference. I think the edge that the home team gets is a variety of things but often it's fans putting pressure on referees by being intimidating or making noise. It's quite subtle.