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Jackpot Syndicate - numbers to ponder
Dollie
Member Posts: 706
Some Jackpot Syndicate numbers to ponder
Jackpot attempts 74 Jackpot wins 10
Average return £2,418 (4 times above, 6 times below)
Average stake £433 (17.9% x average return)
Based on averages 14 wins would have meant break even
5/6 winners on 36 occasions out of 74 (48.6%) and this includes 21 out of last 32 since Xmas (65.6%)
With 5/6 winners on 36 occasions it is reasonable to expect to hit 6 winners perhaps 50% of the time, ie 18 times, which would probably calculate to a £7k or £8k profit instead of a £7.4k loss.
In terms of dividend, I support option A as long as Graham is happy to continue. The above statistics suggest to me that we have been VERY unlucky so far, and if the luck turns slightly more in our favour then maybe with a £4k+ fund we can do quite well in the next 5 to 10 attempts.
Jackpot attempts 74 Jackpot wins 10
Average return £2,418 (4 times above, 6 times below)
Average stake £433 (17.9% x average return)
Based on averages 14 wins would have meant break even
5/6 winners on 36 occasions out of 74 (48.6%) and this includes 21 out of last 32 since Xmas (65.6%)
With 5/6 winners on 36 occasions it is reasonable to expect to hit 6 winners perhaps 50% of the time, ie 18 times, which would probably calculate to a £7k or £8k profit instead of a £7.4k loss.
In terms of dividend, I support option A as long as Graham is happy to continue. The above statistics suggest to me that we have been VERY unlucky so far, and if the luck turns slightly more in our favour then maybe with a £4k+ fund we can do quite well in the next 5 to 10 attempts.
Comments
I think the £2,418.00 average return, is lower that what I would expect it to be over a longer period. It's certainly significantly lower than my initial prediction, but with only 10 lots of data to go on, I am confident that if we are successful enough times, that figure will rise.
10 out of 74 "successes" is about what I thought at the start (although with luck can improve upon), but to me the average return is the stat that hopefully is artificially low, but it will take time to balance out.
We've had 10 "wins" in 10 months elapsed time, so could take some time to balance out, assuming we don't bust.
I think, quite often the dividends have been higher on our near misses, than times when we have been successful.
Appreciate you putting these stats out there.
Cheers,
G
Jackpot attempts 86 Jackpot wins 10
Average return £2,418 (4 times above, 6 times below)
Average stake £426 (17.6% x average return)
Based on averages 15 wins would have meant break even
5/6 winners on 40 occasions out of 86 (46.5%)
With 5/6 winners on 40 occasions it is reasonable to expect to hit 6 winners perhaps 50% of the time, ie 20 times, which would calculate to an £11k or £12k profit (based on average return) instead of an £11.5k loss.
Conclusion EXTREMELY UNLUCKY, so many near misses
I would like to thank Graham and the support team for all their efforts over the last 12 months or so, it has been quite a fun ride and it is unfortunate that we are not in the black
As part of my audit process I have kept an excel workbook showing all transactions. If anyone would like me to send a copy as an attachment, please send me a PM with your email address and I will send it directly by email
Much appreciated!
It's mostly been great fun to do, if a little frustrating at times with all the near misses.
My thanks also go to ALL the people that have helped with the process, so many to name, but you know who you are!
It was a real team effort and who knows, it maybe could have worked well with a bit more luck.
Cheers,
G