Who do you fancy - Arsenal or Atletico Madrid?

Tikay10

Europa League semi-final tonight, can the great Arsene Wenger go out with one last trophy, or will Diego Costa (if fit) spoil the party?

Approx odds;

Arsenal 13/8

Atletico - 15/8

Draw 9/4

Sky Bet prices, boosts, request-a-bets & all sorts available here;

https://m.skybet.com/football/europa-league/event/22121141aff=682&dcmp=sl_fb_betlink_EuropaLeagueTIPS_2504

(I understand other bookies also exist).

Where's your money going, & why?

Tikay10

Diego has history with Arsenal, too.

Seems such a nice man.

kapowblamz

This is the first game at the Emirates since Arsene has declared he's leaving. Diego Costa is probably playing too. I think there's going to be a frenetic air about the place, for those reasons, and even tho Atletico are involved I think there is absolutely oodles of value in >3.5 goals on the exchanges at 4.2. 4.2!!!

Arsenals defending was horrendous in both legs vs the Russians and they were lucky to not concede a lot more.

Tikay10

kapowblamz said:

This is the first game at the Emirates since Arsene has declared he's leaving. Diego Costa is probably playing too. I think there's going to be a frenetic air about the place, for those reasons, and even tho Atletico are involved I think there is absolutely oodles of value in >3.5 goals on the exchanges at 4.2. 4.2!!!

Arsenals defending was horrendous in both legs vs the Russians and they were lucky to not concede a lot more.

Not quite - they had West Ham at the Emirates over the weekend.

They stuck 4 past Joe Hart, which was a good day by his standards.

After Arsenal scored first, West Ham equalized & could have gone on to win it, but 3 late goals in the last 10 minutes did the job.

Have to say, Arsenal were woeful until the last 10 minutes. Their defence scares the life out of me, they are all over the shop.

waller02

I like the Xhaka and Saul to both be carded price boost at 11/1. Stuck a tenner on it.

edrich

That's a useful little exercise you mentioned on the other thread Tikay. Looking at the games you are interested in, and attempting to price them up before you look at the bookies prices.

A colleague and I used to do this regularly, and it doesn't take long before you get reasonably good at it. Once you've looked at the bookies prices, it's hard to do it objectively.

Before I looked at the prices I was expecting Arsenal to be 5/4 - 11/8 so I think 13/8 is ok, 9/4 draw about right, and 15/8 Atletico a bit short. So Arsenal for me, but agree that their defence does give you nightmares sometimes.

kapowblamz

The method Tikay mentions is exactly how Tony Bloom used to do it. I think he might be on to something you know!

Tikay10

edrich said:

That's a useful little exercise you mentioned on the other thread Tikay. Looking at the games you are interested in, and attempting to price them up before you look at the bookies prices.

A colleague and I used to do this regularly, and it doesn't take long before you get reasonably good at it. Once you've looked at the bookies prices, it's hard to do it objectively.

Before I looked at the prices I was expecting Arsenal to be 5/4 - 11/8 so I think 13/8 is ok, 9/4 draw about right, and 15/8 Atletico a bit short. So Arsenal for me, but agree that their defence does give you nightmares sometimes.

The point is, as @edrich notes, once we LOOK at the market, it affects our judgement.

So, price it up in our mind first, then look at the prices, & also check the exchanges, as they are often out of line.

Tikay10

edrich said:

That's a useful little exercise you mentioned on the other thread Tikay. Looking at the games you are interested in, and attempting to price them up before you look at the bookies prices.

A colleague and I used to do this regularly, and it doesn't take long before you get reasonably good at it. Once you've looked at the bookies prices, it's hard to do it objectively.

Before I looked at the prices I was expecting Arsenal to be 5/4 - 11/8 so I think 13/8 is ok, 9/4 draw about right, and 15/8 Atletico a bit short. So Arsenal for me, but agree that their defence does give you nightmares sometimes.

To be honest, I'm not sure I should have a bet, all the prices are close to where they should be, & nothing screams "value".

I probably will though, I just enjoy the game more if I have a bit of money on. Just small though in a spot like this where the prices seem close to correct.

kapowblamz

Apparently the betting markets are so efficient that winning is actually impossible after vig.

Tikay10

kapowblamz said:

Apparently the betting markets are so efficient that winning is actually impossible after vig.

I don't agree with that. But if we want to bet properly, rather than just to have a bit of added interest, then we need to remember that prices have a margin built in, (the over-round), the betting equivalent of rake or reg fees, in poker. So we need to be able to beat that "tax".

SidV79

My bet is BTTS & draw @3/1 (4.0 for all you Millennials)

SidV79

Sky Bet of course

johnjoe81

1-1 wellbeck , costa

kapowblamz

Price of >3.5 has gone out to 4.9 now. FML.

yuranASSet

Tikay10 said:

Europa League semi-final tonight, can the great Arsene Wenger go out with one last trophy, or will Diego Costa (if fit) spoil the party?

Approx odds;

Arsenal 13/8

Atletico - 15/8

Draw 9/4

Sky Bet prices, boosts, request-a-bets & all sorts available here;

https://m.skybet.com/football/europa-league/event/22121141aff=682&dcmp=sl_fb_betlink_EuropaLeagueTIPS_2504

(I understand other bookies also exist).

Where's your money going, & why?

Atheltico to win (by out muscling Arsenal) & Diego Simeone for next Arsenal Manager. There's my double.

johnjoe81

atletico down to 10 men after 10 mins , 2 yellows

Tikay10

johnjoe81 said:

atletico down to 10 men after 10 mins , 2 yellows

Manager "sent to the stands", too.

kapowblamz

Well, my betslip's down the ****.

Essexphil

2nd best team in Madrid v 2nd best team in North London

Tikay10

kapowblamz said:

Well, my betslip's down the ****.

Not yet, 1-0 now.