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ICM calcs look wrong
MP33
Member Posts: 6,300
Hi guys
I,m trying ICMizer again and trying to work out the best strategy for 4 player super turbo sit and go,s.
They don,t cover the site I,m playing on so I,ve created a new format under "other" tab.
A lot of of what its saying just doesn,t look right tho so I,m not sure if I,ve set it up right. I did enquire about this to the support team a while back and asked how I go about putting the blind level times in. This is going to be difficult as the blinds go up every 140 seconds, but the response I got back was that the timing level of the blinds don,t matter which I thought a bit strange at the time but maybe I,m just misunderstanding this whole ICM thing.
Maybe its me being nitty but it all seems very loose - too loose)
Ps If anyone can tell me simply how to post pics I,ll do that in future
Heres a straightforward one I noticed earlier
HU with 1k each in chips at 30/60 and its saying j8 off is a 0.04% shove - Assuming opponent calls with 25% of his range
Does this sound correct or am I getting something wrong here. Just seems very loose
I,ve spotted much stranger ones than this so I,ll try and figure out how to post pics from a screenshot which will hopefully be easier to see
Cheers
P
I,m trying ICMizer again and trying to work out the best strategy for 4 player super turbo sit and go,s.
They don,t cover the site I,m playing on so I,ve created a new format under "other" tab.
A lot of of what its saying just doesn,t look right tho so I,m not sure if I,ve set it up right. I did enquire about this to the support team a while back and asked how I go about putting the blind level times in. This is going to be difficult as the blinds go up every 140 seconds, but the response I got back was that the timing level of the blinds don,t matter which I thought a bit strange at the time but maybe I,m just misunderstanding this whole ICM thing.
Maybe its me being nitty but it all seems very loose - too loose)
Ps If anyone can tell me simply how to post pics I,ll do that in future
Heres a straightforward one I noticed earlier
HU with 1k each in chips at 30/60 and its saying j8 off is a 0.04% shove - Assuming opponent calls with 25% of his range
Does this sound correct or am I getting something wrong here. Just seems very loose
I,ve spotted much stranger ones than this so I,ll try and figure out how to post pics from a screenshot which will hopefully be easier to see
Cheers
P
Comments
On this one it says if we are on 1k each at 40/80 and I,m thinking he will call with 25% again that I should be shoving with 8 4 off. Does this sound right?
(I,m currently voice recording most of my games to make notes on players as there is no function to do this) and keeping them on a sticky in the background
Thx
P
In reality, yes there's a couple of spots where you might have a marginal decision that changes because the blinds are going up in 10 seconds, but ICM is only a model, after all.
As for the question: This will depend what's included in that 25%. Using just typing 25% into a % box and letting it pick the range, my calculations gave me the following at 30/60 blinds w/ 1k stacks, shoving J8o vs 25% call range:
Compared to folding you win 1.5bb 75% of the time when shoving is successful
You have 33.4% vs. opponent when called, so you lose 5.03bb 25% of the time when this happens.
If you've manually entered a range that includes slightly less JTo, J9s and stuff that dominates you but more Axo and 22-55 (arguably more realistic for people to call 55 and A6o than J9o anyway) then I can see how the calculator would spit out it a number where it's marginally profitable.
P(win) = Your % of chips in play
P(2nd) = P(Seat1 wins) * (your stack / chips in play without seat 1) + P(Seat2 wins) * (your stack / chips in play without seat 2) etc - Repeat for every possible winner
P(3rd) = P(Seat1 wins) * P(Seat2 2nd) * (your stack / chips in play without seats 1 and 2), repeat for all combos of 1st and 2nd and sum.
And so on for however many players there are left in the tournament.
I have just been typing percentages in and didn,t realise you could enter hands in manually.
And as you say there are other options rather than just shove/fold which I need to luck at more. I,ll be watching a few HU matches on here and other sites to try and improve some more.
Thx again
P