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Have I got this right? Looks like a guaranteed win or am I missing something?
Phantom66
Member Posts: 5,542
Skybet have enhanced odds on the combined no of winners for messrs Moore and De Sousa at Epsom today
9/4 for 2+winners
You can also bet on exactly 1 winner @11/8
And exactly 0 winners @5/2
So I have bet on all 3 outcomes as follows...
£10 2+
£12.5 1
£10 0
By my maths that means I get a minimum of £9.69 and a maximum of £12.50 profit on a £32.5 outlay
If I am wrong then please let me know exactly why as it does seem too good to be true
If I am right then fill your boots while you can.
9/4 for 2+winners
You can also bet on exactly 1 winner @11/8
And exactly 0 winners @5/2
So I have bet on all 3 outcomes as follows...
£10 2+
£12.5 1
£10 0
By my maths that means I get a minimum of £9.69 and a maximum of £12.50 profit on a £32.5 outlay
If I am wrong then please let me know exactly why as it does seem too good to be true
If I am right then fill your boots while you can.
Comments
Seems a bit misleading to me but if that is the case I can get myself out of a hole by putting £8 on exactly 2 winners @10/3 and guaranteeing a (much smaller) profit.
I.E Minimum of £1.69 and maximum of £4.50. Still not bad for an absolute guaranteed +ROI
*edit* (between 4 and 11% If right - still don't trust my maths so put workings below)
In my experience, "2+" & "2 or more" are different things.
If 2+ means 2 or more
If 2+ means 3 or more
I have even put my saver exactly 2 bet on.
Tried live chat but it wasn't working so emailed CC to clarify the meaning of 2+
As you say it's pretty misleading. To me, 2+ should mean 2 or more
The phone help said 2+ includes 2
I still have nothing in writing though as email not responded to.
If true based on bets made so far I am now freerolling a bet for a nice return on exactly 2 winners
It is getting interesting though.
1. The folk at Sky Bet are now clarifying the bets and not saying 2+ but 2 winners or more.
2. There is a similar opportunity to repeat this type of bet for tomorrow where you can bet on the number of favourites to win in tomorrows ITV races (5 of the Epsom meeting).
3 or more is boosted at 9/1 and you can also bet on exactly 0, 1, or 2 or indeed all of those bets.
Here is an example bet pattern...
You could of course chose to just take the boost on its own, or place the bets and freeroll your fancied bet or the boosted bet.
I think I will go for the guaranteed win as this might not last.
Once again it is beatable by backing all options (3+,2,1,0)
Even without the boost on the 3+ it is still beatable but the boost helps obviously.
Just seen this.
At the current prices (11/4for3+, 7/4for2, 2/1for1, 7/1for0) for SDS/RM winners I think I'm right in making the book just over 8% overround, therefore no chance for the punter to lock in a profit.
Also, in your first example above, you are staking £32.50 to return either £29.69, £32.50 or £35.
In the second, you are staking 8 units to return either 6.75, 7, 9 or 10 units.
I think your calculations aren't taking into account the stake on your winning bet, but just the losers as far as I can see. I think I've got that right,
Ed.
Your EV is -£1.43 per £100 stake, assuming none of the prices are any better or worse than the other. (Tool: Oddschecker's free dutching calculator).
It looks to me like you have done 9/4 = 3.25x your stake returned, then you've added the stake back on because that's what you do with fractional odds, so you've basically counted your stake being returned twice in all of your calculations.
Even if this was a profitable angle, it's not worth it because you'd get a few quid out of it then get snap restricted to 17p by the bookie in question - If you have an edge at all then what you make in this one spot you lose many times over by not being able to get on profitable spots in future and/or having your free bet club and first race refunds on a Saturday taken away etc.
So it's either too good to be true (which it is here), or it's a dumb spot to take in any case if you're thinking long term.
That said, with a market running that close to 100% and the increments commonly used with fractional odds, there's likely to be some value on one of the options.
Re: 2+ thing: Most sites are inclusive - They'll either use 7+, 7 or more, or o6.5 to avoid ambiguity.
The exception I've found is William Hill, and they do it all the time. It's scummy because it makes people incorrectly think that "Over 7" includes 7, so they take a price thinking it's value when it isn't. I hope the Gambling Commission has a word with them about it soon tbh. Doesn't affect me much because I'm not someone who bets on things like # of corners in a game, # of booking points etc, but it still annoys me nonetheless.
I just knew it had to be too good to be true and i was sure my maths was iffy but couldn't see it. Obvious now though.
Luckily havent bet much.
Today i free bet the boosted price and bet on other options to guarantee a return so i am ok.
I take your other point Pingu. I was also wary of "taking advantage" (not that i was) and getting restricted.