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tdym shove or fold decision
On the bubble in a turbo dym
Blinds are 150/300
UTG: 375
Button: 860
SB: 1165
BB: 3150
utg folds and im on the button with AJs, should I be shoving or folding here?
Blinds are 150/300
UTG: 375
Button: 860
SB: 1165
BB: 3150
utg folds and im on the button with AJs, should I be shoving or folding here?
Comments
Also the small stacks gonna be all in with the blinds soon and really should have shoved this hand with any two.
I assume there will be other players who will take a completely opposite tack and talk about G.T.O and I.C.M etc and that's fine too.
If you think the hand is too strong to lay down then shoving is the only option as you could well get the bigger stacks to fold as theres no great need for them to get busy with marginal holdings. If on the other hand you feel they may call then folding's sweet too. In DYM you don't have to win to win.
Yours in poker
Mark
In almost every other format (MTTs/STTs etc, but only some Qualifiers) this is a shove. However, in a DYM, with these stack sizes, this is DEFINITELY a fold.
Short stack is going to be (effectively) all-in next hand. You and the 1165 can choose to play or pass there, and the big stack will put him all-in. You must be about 70-75% to cash at this point if you pass here.
Now let's look at your shove. SB knows that shortie will be all-in next hand, so he can afford to call with any pair and the better high hands. The BB can call with any 2, and is likely to call with his top 50% of hands. You only have A high-you are going to be about a 50% chance of being knocked out.
It's a fold. Every time.
I ended up shoving hoping for two folds, which would give me more of a chance if the small stack wins the next hand
Unfortunately the BB called with 10 5 and took it down hitting the 5 on the river lol
Why does he risk running into a ''small blind monster''? What makes you think the sb might have AA/KK?
Think it would be a shove if the BB had a little less (or if the short stack had a little more) but it looks like you could (and did) get looked up by any 2 which isn't great for us.
As it is, think I'd prefer to take my chances that the shortie will get KO'ed in the next hand,
Next hand if you have a half decent hand you can limp and hope the rest limp along to get the BB out of there lessening their odds of taking it, can be a bit risky of course but find it works well most of the time as he is only going to win 1/4 of the time, at best, given he has any two vs limpers with likely better hands which could dominate. This is assuming no-one does anything silly.
It does feel weak to fold a hand like AJ but its absolutely necessary here. This is from someone who can be accused of being too aggro.
Why do you need to hijack every post I make just to criticise and mock. The points I made are valid but please feel free to continue making yourself look like a total spanner.
Yours in amusement
In this hand the sb, and their holding (unless its AA/KK of which hero blocks one), is essentially irrelevant. If they are playing 'correctly' they will be folding almost everything they are dealt.
Oh and if the sb is calling with hands like 55 through 99 then that is a huge mistake. Just so you know.
Yours in education.
I’m probably going to be shoving here at least 50% of the time. Notes will largely dictate which way I go.
With the greatest respect to Phil who is a good player I certainly don’t think that it’s a definite fold always. I also don’t subscribe to the view that as we only have Ace high we’re only 50% to win.
The sb should pass pretty much 100% of his hands and bb doesn’t have any good reasons to call.
As I said, notes are crucial here. We all know the players who will always call from the bb here and the ones that will need a strong hand to call.
It’s one of those where if weird things happens, which they do, and the short stack gets a walk next hand or trebles up, we’re kicking ourselves when we’re having to go with 94 or suchlike when it comes round to our blinds
Regarding the player trebling or doubling yeah that would suck however I still can't see a shove. Was definitely in the shove camp a while ago for the reasons you give, however seen too many dumb calls on the bubble to justify it and feels like too much of a sweat when opponent is so short. Happy to take a chance on the short stack not doubling/trebling and making the money, big stack next hand in the SB won't fold and you plus other opponent could take a shot at the almost KO next hand leaving him crippled.
AJ is obviously very strong here and vs good thinking players a shove may not be bad, Sky isn't the right site to make such a risky move unless SB and BB are well known to you.
Your continued arrogance that only your opinion counts ( I gave mine but stated that others could have an opposite and justified view) really does mark you out as someone for whom debate and dialogue are anathema and can only lead me to deduce that your mind is like a soup dish. Capable of holding a small amount of anything whilst being susceptible to the inconvenience that the slightest jarring will cause the contents to spill out and become irrevocably lost.
Of course this is only an opinion, which is open to rebuke and rebuff from those who take a diametrically opposing summation in your defence. In the meantime keep on sucking on life's lemons, whilst the rest of us enjoy a refreshing lemonade.
Yours in Mirth
And I repeat, if the sb is calling in this spot with hands as weak as 55 then they are making a huge mistake.
The only stacks that matter in this hand are ours, the bb and the shortie.
Glad you're putting that Thesaurus you got for Christmas to good use.
Anyway, I think the crux of this boils down to the BB. We are short, but we have just enough chips to make it so that a good BB player should not be calling here with any 2. In fact, his range for calling if he's good should be tight - something like AJ+, KQs and 55/66+
Yeh, they might be getting the right price to call but that completely neglects ICM. They don't need to risk even 560 chips when the shorty is all in next hand with any 2. If they lose and then the shorty doubles up, they're now in a much worse position then had they just folded.
A solid winning DYM player shouldn't be calling you from the big blind with anything less than 66/77+ and AK/AK/AJ/KQ.
So if it was a solid reg i shove.
If BB is a fish then you could fold.
Notes and styles of the players involved are important here before making a final decision.
I think there are decent arguments put forward above for both options
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