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Was the full house obvious here?
PKRPar
Member Posts: 2,233
So I was playing the horrible spin and gos and this hand happened.
Surprisingly there was actually some poker.
The reason I didn't raise the turn was because I was hoping that would throw any Ace of the scent. In hindsight I think this was a bad play and should continue raise when I hit the flush.
Another error is possibly even raising on the flop and perhaps a check is better here? Then raise turn?
Hmmm. Or I played it ok and just a bad river card? Thoughts on a post card! I'm not touchy and looking to improve in spots like this so fire away.
Surprisingly there was actually some poker.
The reason I didn't raise the turn was because I was hoping that would throw any Ace of the scent. In hindsight I think this was a bad play and should continue raise when I hit the flush.
Another error is possibly even raising on the flop and perhaps a check is better here? Then raise turn?
Hmmm. Or I played it ok and just a bad river card? Thoughts on a post card! I'm not touchy and looking to improve in spots like this so fire away.
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thoich | Small blind | £1.50 | £1.50 | £163.20 | |
| HDMC59 | Big blind | £3.00 | £4.50 | £39.95 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| nickd49931 | Raise | £6.00 | £10.50 | £141.72 | |
| laakdown | Fold | ||||
| PKRPar | Call | £6.00 | £16.50 | £40.20 | |
| Thoich | Fold | ||||
| HDMC59 | Call | £3.00 | £19.50 | £36.95 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| HDMC59 | Check | ||||
| nickd49931 | Check | ||||
| PKRPar | Bet | £9.00 | £28.50 | £31.20 | |
| HDMC59 | Fold | ||||
| nickd49931 | Call | £9.00 | £37.50 | £132.72 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| nickd49931 | Check | ||||
| PKRPar | Check | ||||
| River | |||||
| |||||
| nickd49931 | Check | ||||
| PKRPar | Bet | £18.75 | £56.25 | £12.45 | |
| nickd49931 | Raise | £37.50 | £93.75 | £95.22 | |
| PKRPar | All-in | £12.45 | £106.20 | £0.00 | |
| nickd49931 | Unmatched bet | £6.30 | £99.90 | £101.52 | |
| nickd49931 | Show |
| |||
| PKRPar | Show |
| |||
| nickd49931 | Win | Full House, Aces and 3s | £98.10 | £199.62 | |
Comments
Vs UTG we're just gonna make top pair vs overpairs and AQ/KQ/AJ/KJ a decent % of the time when stacks go in. We obvs get it in vs some mid PP bluff catchers and like gutshot/overs some of the time too with these effective stacks which we beat, and we've got a good stack size to jam flops as a semibluff on like T9x/T8x and get some overs to maybe cbet/fold, or for value on wet Jxx/Qxx vs mid PPs and equity for value, but that still relies on us making something we can semibluff with and getting enough folds, plus calls from worse when we make a pair to compensate for running into stuff.
We flop well a decent % with this hand but whether it's enough with this effective stack to make up for when we just run into better hands when we make a worse top pair, I think it's marginal, particularly when BB can squeeze a whole bunch of stuff and we don't even get to see the flop (and we can't call his jam either) so we just donate £6.
For those reasons I'm likely to just be a complete nit and fold pre in this spot, even though this is typically one of the better hands to peel the button with. I don't hate a peel if opener is too wide and/or both blinds (particularly BB) are too passive but I'd probably want that note before I go peeling this spot with the stacks as they are.
(Feel like I repeated myself a bit in there, meh)
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Flop: As played, wp. Gotta stab and fold out some K highs that beat us at showdown as well as all the stuff that has equity vs us, and we have like 35-40% vs most things ourselves if called and we're likely to be allowed to just check back the turn IP if we want. It's a pretty automatic stab for me as played. Think it's possible that we might get BB to fold like 44 or something as well with a stab too.
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Turn: I'd just jam for value, his flop x/c is likely to be showdown value on A62hh, because typically his position pre and an ace high board, he probs just stabs a load of bluffs even 3 way I'd imagine because of how weak the BB peel is gonna be and how likely he is to have a strong Ace opening UTG, plus we take some of our Ax out of our range by peeling because we probs just jam like AJ+ pre, plus we probs don't peel things like A6o, so there's not a huge amount for him to worry about if he wanted to cbet flop.
With the SPR vs you and BB being what it is once you both peel, it's totally reasonable for him to just go into x/c mode with a strong top pair because he only needs 2 streets to get stacks in, so if the flop checks through he can just stick 9 quid in on the turn to jam riv himself anyways. Might as well give you or the BB a chance to bluff, or make 2nd pair on the turn etc.
Even if he's x/c something like TT or KK OTF, then there's a decent chance he just snaps us off to bluff catch thinking he has 20% a lot of the time when he's wrong if he's holding like TT w/ Th, KK w/ Kh and he only needs like 31% to call overall so you don't need many bluffs, and generally he probs thinks you have those sometimes when he's checked the flop to give you license to barrel off with whatever.
The concern here is that if he's x/c something like ATo with no heart that he can fold heart rivers really easily if we check back turn. I highly doubt he has just the Kh as played so I don't see much value checking back to let him bluff anything like that, if he has Kh it's probs KK or AK w/ Kh as played and I don't think he folds either to a turn jam so there's no justification for protection as a reason to bet here.
I think we just get called almost all the time if we jam, so to check back the turn and possibly give him the opportunity to fold any heart rivers makes no sense.
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River: With SPR and him having a pretty face up showdown value hand, I'd just jam for value. I think your sizing looks stronger than a jam if anything, and I imagine he's just x/c the vast majority of stuff and he's pretty inelastic here when he has top pair given SPR and how the hand has played so far, so yeah just jam so we aren't losing £13 or whatever all of the times that he has AT/AJ or something. Fact he has AA here is just ul.
Does he ever jam worse once we make it £18.75 otr, probs not because his x/c is almost always flop sets which are now boats, plus showdown, and I doubt he's ever turning stuff into a bluff given your price to call. So yeah there probs is an argument for a hero fold but at the same time, we shouldn't ever be putting ourselves in the spot for that to be a decision in the first place.
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Think @nickd49931 has played this hand absolutely perfect fwiw.
Once you are in the hand, on that runout, you will always go busto. you would have to be "Tikay-Tight" not to...
Ran some v quick numbers with AT+/66+ and it's barely okay before you start to factor in that each of the blinds has like a ~4.5% or so chance to just wake up with like AQ/TT+ and cold call when we have 30% vs range (it's even worse if I give them AJ to call with too), and that the rake is taking 0.6bb out of the pot when we get action.
The fact I'm considering those things means there's not a whole lot in it either way, so I like it vs right UTG villain, but I don't think it's quite gonna show a profit to use it as our default line.
KQs gives us a couple more % equity vs AT+/66+, so could jam that but that may well be strong enough to flat the button with a plan to call a BB squeeze if the opener folds and show a profit, which I don't think we can quite do with QJs.