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Awful fold?
sighcall
Member Posts: 494
4 left in a DYM.
I think this is an awful fold...BUT...is it?
Thoughts?
I think this is an awful fold...BUT...is it?
Thoughts?
Comments
Well we did not know he had 8-2, & if we had known that, & that we were 68%-32% favourite, obv we call.
I think we should call anyway. Our edges in these things are very small, a 10% winner over a large sample is doing very well. It's rare to be in terrible shape with A-K in this spot, & I think we have to take our chance.
The thing with DYM's - well all poker really, but in this case DYM's specifically - is VOLUME. We need to imagine the same spot 1,000 or 10,000 times. If that man jams on us & we have A-K, over a 10,000 sample I'd be pretty sure A-K would be a significant winner.
tilly 2000
timber 1300
nosurrenda 1075
I think it's closer than it first appears. We're gonna be on fumes with no F/E if we lose so it's not clear cut. The argument that you won't get a better hand than AK and the chance to end it now is persuasive.
But we're taking all the risk vs 2 random cards, the other 2 players will be loving it. Yes AK is highly likely to be ahead now, but I'm sure there is something about giving up equity by calling here with a none made hand, read it in one of them book things.
Would snap if 5 left fwiw.
Perhaps a DYM solver like Timmy, or a DYM enthusiast like Jac, can offer some pearls of wisdom....
However if it was an important high stakes satellite and 3 got seats, which is effectively the same thing, then I would ask myself the following:
Q1) If you fold, what chance do you have of getting the seat?
A1) Being on the button next, and no-one having many BB's and being of average stack, you would have to say at least 75% probably more. If you have average stack with three out of four getting paid then the fact you are on the button next, when it's so shallow is a big advantage, so probably nearer 80%.
Q2) If you call (lets just assume if you call and lose, you bust) does your hand have greater equity against his range than the 75%-80% above?
A2) Only against Ax or Kx hands would you have anywhere close to 75% and he's shoving most his range.
So especially if you knew their hand (sorry to disagree with you @Tikay10 here), you should fold. Because 67% is considerably worse than the 75%-80% chance you have of cashing if you fold.
I am ignoring the fact that you may call and lose and come back from the dead. If I consider this say 5% chance, then I would still go with the above.
If you call and lose, I'd expect everyone to limp in on your next BB, or all call your shove, check it down and try and bust you. (The unspoken "rule" of satellite bubbles)
When you look collectively at all the above, I think you absolutely made the right decision. It's a classic, what they call "ICM Fold." Did you cash in it btw?
FYI, I folded AA pre in one of the Punta Cana Satellites on the bubble when the chip leader shoved. I can't remember the exact details, I was 2nd in chips I think and there were quite a few short stacks. It was an easy fold too. I'm only 80% against a pocket pair and probably 98% good for a seat if I fold. I also remember a very good player Chris Cunliffe @rspca12 saying that he folded AA against me in a very similar situation. I only had A6s so I was very "lucky" but also aware that I was up against such a good player who knew to fold 100% of his range!
Only time I have folded AA pre mind, and I'd imagine Chris doesn't do it too often either!
Hope this is of use.
Cheers,
Graham
P.S. Regarding NoSurrenda showing the 82, grateful though we are for it prompting this thread, it's a terrible thing to do. At this stage you want any shove to get through and showing this won't assist his cause in subsequent hands. I would show a monster, but not a weak hand.
On the same note, if the software allowed it, you should never show that you folded AK as they will shove wider against you. Even though good players would know it's the right fold, you'd want them to believe that you may not be that bright. If they think there is a danger of you calling light, they'd think twice before shoving. :=)
Perhaps a case of ego versus reason. Or maybe if it's low stakes, just the fun of it. But in a serious game, it's should be a NO-NO for NoSurrenda to show 82 in this spot.
P.P.S. In the times of the SkyPoker Channel I remember TK's very wise words. "Poker only works when there is money on it." If it doesn't matter then the logic is not there. Or words to that effect. So if this game "mattered" I would hope NoSurrenda would not show. But if it's just having a crack for a few pennies then why not. Depends on your outlook I guess. Is it for fun or is it serious. In a way, unless it's serious, logic cannot be applied in the same way.
Not sure if you remember saying that @Tikay10
I like to think that I play in "serious fun" mode. IE, play as optimally as I can, whilst still enjoying banter etc, maybe showing a few cards here and there, but without doing anything that impairs my chances.