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Final 3 PLO8 UKOPs
tom_mull
Member Posts: 30
I'm very confused about what I'm supposed to do in this spot. 3 left in the PLO8 UKOPs event.
Chip counts:
Me: 89k
Short stack: 31k
Chip leader: Over 250k
Action: The short stack shoves from the button with 2.5BBs. The chip leader shoves over the top leaving me with a very tough decision. (Fwiw I think that the shove is a mistake and he should be either calling or folding)
The payouts are 1st: £587, 2nd: £339 and 3rd: £206. What should I do with the below hand? It's one of those very weird spots that only occur in the very late stages of a SnG/tournament.
Chip counts:
Me: 89k
Short stack: 31k
Chip leader: Over 250k
Action: The short stack shoves from the button with 2.5BBs. The chip leader shoves over the top leaving me with a very tough decision. (Fwiw I think that the shove is a mistake and he should be either calling or folding)
The payouts are 1st: £587, 2nd: £339 and 3rd: £206. What should I do with the below hand? It's one of those very weird spots that only occur in the very late stages of a SnG/tournament.
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivydrive | Small blind | 6000.00 | 6000.00 | 273506.78 | |
| tom_mull | Big blind | 12000.00 | 18000.00 | 89535.68 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| pompeynic | All-in | 30957.54 | 48957.54 | 0.00 | |
| Ivydrive | Raise | 98872.62 | 147830.16 | 174634.16 | |
| tom_mull | ? |
Comments
Just out of interest how good is this hand relative to all hands you get dealt in hi lo? Is top 15% a fair estimate? So if your thinking this is close then a shove for him must be very good if 85% of the time he just gets to run it vs a 2.5bb shove with your 12k in the middle and he still has equity the times you do call.
Your exact hand feels like it doesnt do an amazing job at winning 3 way all ins when your low is pretty lacklustre. Would be bad to get scooped off the big stack and have pompey get hu by chopping low or something. Think its a fold although sure people much better informed than me on the game will give opinions.
Just out of interest how good is this hand relative to all hands you get dealt in hi lo? Is top 15% a fair estimate?
As you know, unlike Hold 'Em, where we can precisely measure the relative value of hands, it's a lot more awkward & complex in O8.
I do have a listing of the top 5,278 hands in 4 card O8, & A-K-J-6 Double suited sits at #852. So yes, about top 15%.
All other things being equal (don't even ask as there are so many parameters) we can expect to SCOOP around 12% of the time & win part of the pot 20% of the time.
As to the original question, we don't know the other 2 hands, but @Ivydrive played exactly correctly imo - he wants you out of the way. In a DYM (assuming 4 left, not 3), it plays different, & 2 of you taking on the shortie has a lot more merit. (See the explanation by Groggs)
In short, in a DYM it should be 3 way, in an MTT it should be heads up.
PS - congrats to @tom_mull on such a terrific result.
Thank you for the replies.
In hindsight, it does seem pretty obvious that @Ivydrive should be shoving almost all of his hands to deny me the chance of closing the gap between 1st and 2nd. In fact the outcome for him is probably just as positive if @pompeynic scoops because he can keep applying ICM pressure to both of us.
Looking at my decision again I think a fold is correct because the value gained from doubling through IcyDrive is probably not worth the small chance that PompeyNic > Ivydrive > Me. Also, if the shortstack doubles up I'm still comfortably in 2nd place which means that my stack value isn't too different than what it was before.
In the end I decided to fold and still came 3rd.
This is really key with analysis. So many players are results orientated with whether or not a play was correct. We need to assess ranges/ICM etc rather than say in this one instance it was a good/bad fold.
I couldn't remember the exact hand when you posted the first part. I was actually surprised at how strong my reshove hand was - It was actually towards the top of my range.
In this spot i'm obviously iso shoving quite a wide range because of ICM implications. If i was you, I'd be snap folding everything but the very very top of my range. AKJ6 is a solid hand especially 3 handed. It would be a fairly easy shove if you were first in to the pot but vs two all ins and with ICM implications its an easy fold.
Not saying i'm correct, just how i would play your spot. WP. GG.
Bigstack will almost certainly have a better low draw then shorty, and you'll almost certainly have a better high draw, so great chance of knocking out shorty and securing at least 2nd place. flipping for a 140k sidepot if shorty does survive
equities are so close generally that I don't think you should fold here, checking on propokertools giving shorty a top 50% range and Biggy a 15% range, shorty is only going to be knocked out 38% of the time if you fold, so a third of the time either gaining half of your dead money or 30% of the time more than doubling to almost the same stack as you.
If you call shorty is only surviving about a third of the time instead and you could still have a nice stack if he does