Pot Odds, Hand Equity & Fold Frequency

peter27

Hi all,

In my quest to become a better player, I've been looking into basic poker maths and something has me a little confused.

- In a hand where there's 100 in the pot, and an opponent bets a further 100, your pot odds are 2:1, or 33%.

- If this occurs on the flop, and you've got a flush draw (9 outs), your equity is 36% which means you're basically getting the right price to call.

- However, your fold frequency (bet/(pot+bet)) is 1/2 or 50%.

So you're getting the right price to call, but you should fold 50% of the time? This seems like a contradiction.

What am I not understanding?

mukta1818

well peter i hope your a better player now and understand that none of that means jack u can call with your pocket aces and still have some silly muppet call with pocket 9s and 4 clubs turn over and guess what hes got the 9 of clubs thats what your up against

peter27

mukta1818 said:

well peter i hope your a better player now and understand that none of that means jack u can call with your pocket aces and still have some silly muppet call with pocket 9s and 4 clubs turn over and guess what hes got the 9 of clubs thats what your up against

I'm guessing this is in reference to a hand we played together that I don't remember? Dig out the hand ID and let's talk it through?

grantorino

You are not getting the right direct odds to call a unless he is all in, as you may have to pay again on turn

Not sure what the calc for fold frequency is meant to represent, is it the amount you need opponent to fold when you bet assuming you have no other way of winning? If so completely different calc than equity needed to call

peter27

grantorino said:

You are not getting the right direct odds to call a unless he is all in, as you may have to pay again on turn

I'm not sure I understand this. Of course I see that you may have to put money into the pot later in the hand, but we're just looking at a snapshot in time here aren't we?

Pot odds 33%, equity 36% - I would have thought that means you should always be making the call?

The turn is totally different because your pot odds drop down to about 18% (assuming you didn't hit the turn card).

grantorino said:

Not sure what the calc for fold frequency is meant to represent, is it the amount you need opponent to fold when you bet assuming you have no other way of winning? If so completely different calc than equity needed to call

Honestly not sure, I got it from Daniel Negreanu's masterclass. I think it's supposed to tell you how often you should be folding in a particular spot. There's a little message board on that masterclass, I will ask the question there. I'll post any answer I get here too.