Thoughts here guys?
Mayhem357 Small blind 25.00 25.00 1530.00
gunman71 Big blind 50.00 75.00 2715.00
Your hole cards
9
9
chadw33 Fold
Denjays1 Raise 100.00 175.00 1560.00
scottyjohn Fold
johnw600 Fold
Mayhem357 Call 75.00 250.00 1455.00
gunman71 Call 50.00 300.00 2665.00
Flop
5
9
8
Mayhem357 Check
gunman71 Check
Denjays1 Bet 200.00 500.00 1360.00
Mayhem357 Raise 550.00 1050.00 905.00
gunman71 Raise 1325.00 2375.00 1340.00
Denjays1 All-in 1360.00 3735.00 0.00
Mayhem357 All-in 905.00 4640.00 0.00
Opener I feel has a fairly wide opening range here including higher pairs and decent aces, given blinds and my stack size re-raising pre-flop isn't great unless I go big. I check, opener continues which is fairly standard but here I decide to 3 bet as I feel I can stack over pairs and smaller sets. To my surprise BB now jams on me. I don't have any real notes but given action I have to assume his range is 6-7, 8-8, 5-5 heavy with a few random open ended straight draws , maybe 8-9 being over valued or over pairs thrown in, opener then calls the shove which to me tells me he has most likely an over pair or potentially 5-5 (I don't see him betting 200 with 8-8 on this flop.
If my ranges are right I'm 65% favourite here, original opener is likely in terrible shape with around 6% equity and BB is around 30%. Given blind level though I am wondering whether I should stack off here, I think almost certainly as I only have 1000 behind and pot odds are great needing only 25% equity.
Anyone see this differently? If it helps I'm only winning reg at the table so have big edge even with 1000 chips behind at this stage.
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Comments
When I'm in this spot I have the awful habit of thinking "what hands have me beat here?", & of course 6-7 would spring to mind immediately.
He does not have to have it though, & even if he has, we still have plenty of outs.
I think we had to go with it. Whether it was proven to be right or wrong is, as you note, irrelevant - the correct play was to go with it. (IMO)
If the same spot came up 1,000 times, I think we'd come out ahead if we called every time, as he does not always have the 6-7.
I'm glad you posted this, please post more as & when they crop up.
I got in a weird spot in a Live Tourney recently (SPT Grand Final), & if I'm brave enough, I'll post that later today. One of those "I know I'm behind but......" spots.
On the flop I prefer a check-raise all-in compared to a small check-raise for 3 main reasons:-
1. Big overpairs that call a small check-raise will call an all-in. I guess there maybe hands they have that would call a small check-raise but not a shove however this point is outweighed by the next two points.....
2. A check-raise shove looks weaker than a small check-raise. The check-raise screams "monster". Opponent could put you on pair plus draw combos or smaller overpairs with a shove.
3. You could get a call on the flop and a see a 6, 7 or a T pop off on the turn and kill any further chips going in.