Should this be a fold? I was 1st, 12 left in the half 5 bh tonight before this hand.

Danyo0

Bear in mind he did jam a few times in to me :

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
HAMMER001	Small blind		300.00	300.00	32994.17
JRH2424	Big blind		600.00	900.00	26958.19
	Your hole cards	A Q
utang	Fold
Danyo0	Raise		1800.00	2700.00	43944.64
XXKIPXX	Fold
pete1	Fold
HAMMER001	All-in		32994.17	35694.17	0.00
JRH2424	Fold
Danyo0	Call		31494.17	67188.34	12450.47
HAMMER001	Show	8 A
Danyo0	Show	A Q
Flop
		4 3 8
Turn
		K
River
		10
HAMMER001	Win	Pair of 8s	67188.34		67188.34

Danyo0

i went on my read rather than icm

Essexphil

Reads are more important than ICM in that spot. So (for example) I'm old so you should always fold

You got it in as a 70% plus fav-there's not many better spots than that. Got to play for the win, not to ladder up...

Danyo0

well somehow made a comeback, and sitting 1st 3 handed.

Danyo0

Essexphil said:

Reads are more important than ICM in that spot. So (for example) I'm old so you should always fold

You got it in as a 70% plus fav-there's not many better spots than that. Got to play for the win, not to ladder up...

yeah I am glad big picture i made the right call, sore result to take but thats poker.

K0BAYASHl

Danyo0 said:

Bear in mind he did jam a few times in to me :

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
HAMMER001	Small blind		300.00	300.00	32994.17
JRH2424	Big blind		600.00	900.00	26958.19
	Your hole cards	A Q
utang	Fold
Danyo0	Raise		1800.00	2700.00	43944.64
XXKIPXX	Fold
pete1	Fold
HAMMER001	All-in		32994.17	35694.17	0.00
JRH2424	Fold
Danyo0	Call		31494.17	67188.34	12450.47
HAMMER001	Show	8 A
Danyo0	Show	A Q
Flop
		4 3 8
Turn
		K
River
		10
HAMMER001	Win	Pair of 8s	67188.34		67188.34

Are you posting this hand if you win the race?

Danyo0

K0BAYASHl said:

Danyo0 said:

Bear in mind he did jam a few times in to me :

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
HAMMER001	Small blind		300.00	300.00	32994.17
JRH2424	Big blind		600.00	900.00	26958.19
	Your hole cards	A Q
utang	Fold
Danyo0	Raise		1800.00	2700.00	43944.64
XXKIPXX	Fold
pete1	Fold
HAMMER001	All-in		32994.17	35694.17	0.00
JRH2424	Fold
Danyo0	Call		31494.17	67188.34	12450.47
HAMMER001	Show	8 A
Danyo0	Show	A Q
Flop
		4 3 8
Turn
		K
River
		10
HAMMER001	Win	Pair of 8s	67188.34		67188.34

Are you posting this hand if you win the race?

Fair point , honestly probably not however I took the bad beat as a chance to gage how more experienced players would view this and advise what they would have done in this spot.

Danyo0

For example was it really worth the risk.

MattBates

You said he had shoved into you a few times so AQ is pretty massive in this spot.
Apart from the fact you lost the pot, why are you questioning the call?

MattBates

Danyo0 said:

For example was it really worth the risk.

We have to risk chips to gain chips. In certain spots we can fold the AQ but I would say they are fairly rare. If we can win chips uncontested extremely easily then we can avoid higher variance spots like this (or if we are doing bad against our opponents range) but if our opponent is shoving often like you said then against their range we are in a good spot and need to make the right action against their range and their actual hand and the result (whilst painful if we lose) is actually irrelevant to whether our decision to call was a good one or not.

Danyo0

MattBates said:

Danyo0 said:

For example was it really worth the risk.

We have to risk chips to gain chips. In certain spots we can fold the AQ but I would say they are fairly rare. If we can win chips uncontested extremely easily then we can avoid higher variance spots like this (or if we are doing bad against our opponents range) but if our opponent is shoving often like you said then against their range we are in a good spot and need to make the right action against their range and their actual hand and the result (whilst painful if we lose) is actually irrelevant to whether our decision to call was a good one or not.

The main reason behind the question which was posted moments after it happened was the feeling of doubt and thinking maybe I should be keeping ICM in mind when I am in a good position in the tournament. Just a moment of self doubt reaching out for reassurance.

Summers119

I was curious about this spot so put it in ICMIZER and AQs is -0.06% a fold giving his shoving range is 11% A8s+ A10o+ 55+ KJs KQs KQo and that the average stack is around 26k and 13 pay.

We should call 10s+ AKo and AKs here if we deem the opponent to have an 11% shoving range.

This takes into the size of the bounty to an extent but if the bounty is really big then its more likely to be a call. If its a min bounty its probably a fold if the 11% range is accurate. If he is shoving say 15% of hands its a call also.

It is useful to note something about future game. Losing the all in would mean that you don't cover many stacks for bounties and it may be more profitable to wait for spots which are less marginal where you are big stack bulling and putting opponents all in rather than calling big all ins for most your stack.

Given all this, Id probably still call AQs and fold AJs 99 here.

I would be interested to hear people thoughts on this!

Tikay10

I think the lesson from this hand is that in poker, often making the correct long-term decision does not work out in the short-term.

The thing is, we can play a hand perfectly & still lose. That does not mean we played it incorrectly.

chicknMelt

Summers119 said:

I was curious about this spot so put it in ICMIZER and AQs is -0.06% a fold giving his shoving range is 11% A8s+ A10o+ 55+ KJs KQs KQo and that the average stack is around 26k and 13 pay.

We should call 10s+ AKo and AKs here if we deem the opponent to have an 11% shoving range.

This takes into the size of the bounty to an extent but if the bounty is really big then its more likely to be a call. If its a min bounty its probably a fold if the 11% range is accurate. If he is shoving say 15% of hands its a call also.

It is useful to note something about future game. Losing the all in would mean that you don't cover many stacks for bounties and it may be more profitable to wait for spots which are less marginal where you are big stack bulling and putting opponents all in rather than calling big all ins for most your stack.

Given all this, Id probably still call AQs and fold AJs 99 here.

I would be interested to hear people thoughts on this!

The hard part is giving someone a 3bet shoving range when 50bb effective... because it doesn't really make sense with any hands.

From my experience, when we see huge jams like this from someone that does it fairly often, we see Ax a lot. I would think we can reduce the likelihood of AA-QQ too as we'd expect them to do a normal 3bet at least some of the time.

I would also guess a player like this has a larger than average bounty...they don't seem to be shy putting their chips in.

You have also assumed that they are 3b jamming the exact bottom of their range in this hand, which might be true...but it might not. If you start adding in some smaller Ax then it will be much more of a call.

given all of the above, no way I'm folding AQ once I have seen the 3bet jam a few times.

Summers119

@chicknMelt you make some very good points that I may have missed. I guess with a read that he is loose and has Ax a lot helps us make the call here.

ICM is interesting here (although I may have overweighted its importance in this instance) and so me personally even with all things considered would still fold AJ probs.