I got in a spot today where I was expecting to lose when I made the call, but as it was a 1/2rd pot bet, I figured I had to cry call, as if he was bluffing once every 4 times, then I break even long term, but thinking about it now, I'm not so sure.
Cash came, blind 0.01/0.02
Hero in small blind with AhQd
Villain in cut-off with KdQc
Preflop
Villain calls 1BB
Hero raises to 3BB
Villain calls
Pot size - 7BB
Flop - 3d3sKh
Hero bets 3.5BB (half pot)
Villain calls
Pot size - 14BB
Turn - Ad
Hero bets 7BB (half pot)
Villain calls
28BB
River - Ks
Hero checks
Villain raises 14BB (half pot)
Pot now 42BB
Hero Calls
Villain wins.
I didn't really have much of a read on the player before this. He hadn't been noticeably loose or tight, but when he called my preflop raise and my continuation bet on the flop, I figure him for Kx. Then the Ace hits on the turn and I figure I'm ahead, so I value bet half pot. The river turn is a nightmare for me, so I check behind trying to see a cheap showdown, and he raised half pot.
Now that I think about it, he doesn't really have many bluffs here, so folding looks the call I should have made.
What do you guys think, does his range have enough bluffs for him to be bluffing 25% of the time?
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