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Is this the right time to fold a set?
The_Don90
Member Posts: 9,814
So firstly, think I'll get some negative comments for posting this, this hand happened last night and been giving it some thought. And looking at the hand as a whole I feel there's a specific reason why I can fold here.
So breaking down the hand, pre I'm pretty happy with we're sat very deep the table is super passive and 3betting has been rare, I don't like any options if i 4bet and get raised while flatting also keeps some level of my hand hidden. I would hate to be 5b here as I'm not convinced we see many people getting QQ in pre this deep, we fold out alot that we beat aswell, and calling 5bets oop just feels like trouble.
Flop sizing here along with a snap bet makes me think my opponent is in love with their hand, thinking about it since I genuinely feel I could probably shove here and get a call. But by raising like this we are slowly getting the stacks in and setting up a nice river all in spot.
Turn is the key decision. We know from the flop our opponent loves his hand, at that point plus the pre action I feel we can rule out the mean QJ which has got there so this is one less hand I feel beats us in this instance. I guess villian can have it but I think it would be extremely unlikely. I size this in a middle ground relative to the pot to not commit myself to the pot, while also setting up an easy river shove. Once he shoves I genuinely think I can fold, and heres the reason, if we rule out QJ which is a hand we beat, can we also rule out TT aswell, if they had second set they either get aggro on flop, or they continue to let me have control and flat for the river in position? So the flop mixed with the new turn aggression means I feel I can rule out the 2 worse sets (88 might not be there due to pre anyways - being a passive table QJ im ruling out from pre action while 88 i probably can too - is TT borderline?). So I think we can safely assume this Ace has drastically improved his hand. I dont think we see AQcc or AJcc take this line either, so that leaves us with 3 combos of AK and 3 combos of AA. 1 has us drawing virtually dead, while the other has us in great shape. But again does AK take this line?
So basically with all that said, is second set a fold in this spot.
Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
The_Don90 Small blind £0.02 £0.02 £12.72
RH1933 Big blind £0.04 £0.06 £4.48
mark_r Big blind £0.04 £0.10 £1.16
Your hole cards
Kc
Ks
dotsmum Raise £0.08 £0.18 £8.77
Skipper57 Fold
mark_r Fold
sggs23 Raise £0.40 £0.58 £10.62
The_Don90 Call £0.38 £0.96 £12.34
RH1933 Fold
dotsmum Fold
Flop
Kh
10c
8c
The_Don90 Check
sggs23 Bet £0.72 £1.68 £9.90
The_Don90 Raise £2.25 £3.93 £10.09
sggs23 Call £1.53 £5.46 £8.37
Turn
Ad
The_Don90 Bet £3.00 £8.46 £7.09
sggs23 All-in £8.37 £16.83 £0.00
The_Don90
So breaking down the hand, pre I'm pretty happy with we're sat very deep the table is super passive and 3betting has been rare, I don't like any options if i 4bet and get raised while flatting also keeps some level of my hand hidden. I would hate to be 5b here as I'm not convinced we see many people getting QQ in pre this deep, we fold out alot that we beat aswell, and calling 5bets oop just feels like trouble.
Flop sizing here along with a snap bet makes me think my opponent is in love with their hand, thinking about it since I genuinely feel I could probably shove here and get a call. But by raising like this we are slowly getting the stacks in and setting up a nice river all in spot.
Turn is the key decision. We know from the flop our opponent loves his hand, at that point plus the pre action I feel we can rule out the mean QJ which has got there so this is one less hand I feel beats us in this instance. I guess villian can have it but I think it would be extremely unlikely. I size this in a middle ground relative to the pot to not commit myself to the pot, while also setting up an easy river shove. Once he shoves I genuinely think I can fold, and heres the reason, if we rule out QJ which is a hand we beat, can we also rule out TT aswell, if they had second set they either get aggro on flop, or they continue to let me have control and flat for the river in position? So the flop mixed with the new turn aggression means I feel I can rule out the 2 worse sets (88 might not be there due to pre anyways - being a passive table QJ im ruling out from pre action while 88 i probably can too - is TT borderline?). So I think we can safely assume this Ace has drastically improved his hand. I dont think we see AQcc or AJcc take this line either, so that leaves us with 3 combos of AK and 3 combos of AA. 1 has us drawing virtually dead, while the other has us in great shape. But again does AK take this line?
So basically with all that said, is second set a fold in this spot.
Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
The_Don90 Small blind £0.02 £0.02 £12.72
RH1933 Big blind £0.04 £0.06 £4.48
mark_r Big blind £0.04 £0.10 £1.16
Your hole cards
Kc
Ks
dotsmum Raise £0.08 £0.18 £8.77
Skipper57 Fold
mark_r Fold
sggs23 Raise £0.40 £0.58 £10.62
The_Don90 Call £0.38 £0.96 £12.34
RH1933 Fold
dotsmum Fold
Flop
Kh
10c
8c
The_Don90 Check
sggs23 Bet £0.72 £1.68 £9.90
The_Don90 Raise £2.25 £3.93 £10.09
sggs23 Call £1.53 £5.46 £8.37
Turn
Ad
The_Don90 Bet £3.00 £8.46 £7.09
sggs23 All-in £8.37 £16.83 £0.00
The_Don90
Comments
I agree that QJ is possible, but not likely, for the reasons you have given.
I agree that AA is more likely, although the flat call (as opposed to raise) on the turn makes me wonder-many AAs are reraising there.
Are you less than 50/50? Probably. But you don't have to be 50/50 to call. It is £5.37 to win £22.30. Or (roughly) 3/1 on your money. Call.
You need like 4/1 to call here and you are defo better than 25% probs closer to 60% as even if he has QJ you can still boat up. Also, you can consider cold reraising KK pre here.
Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.
https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby/community/forums#/discussion/comment/1022167
yours in poker
Mark
And yes, I will try to post some more on the forums (You do a great job btw)
£100 to £1,000 challenge, & you want to post more? Why not do a little Diary about it then?
Step 1: Enter casino with a large fortune....
Thanks for the responses respect them all.
It could be me looking back on a bad session but I still feel there's a strong argument for a fold here. If we're ruling out 88 and TT and have the range as AK and AA then its a call. Someone said here villain can have QJ as well which was read based as i forgot to blank the name. I still rule out TT and 88. Surely that then makes the math a fold even with our amazing odds?