Interesting ICM Spot

LARSON7

Quite an interesting spot here.

Player 2 is a cash game player and has started playing more MTTs recently. He has been opening pretty loose, pre Final table and also presumably on the FT as well.

I've never seen player 4 before, they have been playing well and solid and this is the first time I've seen them 3 bet - we were 4/5 handed for a while pre final table.

The BB has approx. 8 bb's at the start of the hand, we have 14.

Would you 4 bet jam here or fold? And why




LARSON7 Small blind 1000.00 1000.00 27990.00
BB Big blind 2000.00 3000.00 14959.00
Your hole cards
Ah
Qc

Player 1 Fold
Player 2 Raise 4000.00 7000.00 72061.75
Player 3 Fold
Player 4 Raise 12000.00 19000.00 53063.50
LARSON7 ?

Summers119

Hi @LARSON7,

Do you know how many cash? How many left? Is it a bounty or freezeout?

From the information given, I personally I would be folding all day as we have no fold equity here and so risking our stack with AQo when he has mainly better hands and ones we are flipping with would be a ICM problem.

If its the first time he has 3bet and have been playing with him for a bit then its probably not AJ, KQ etc. as these usually flat from what I see on Sky.

However I am a bit of a nit at times so I could be wrong.

If we had more fold equity 4 bet jamming AQo would be a pretty good play imo.

LARSON7

Hi Summers, it’s the £55 bh we are in the money and it’s the final table.

FeelGroggy

Seems like a spot a good player could widen their 3b range in so we should get his in. BH's top heavy anyway so ICM isnt as much a thing. AQ has plenty equity vs a good player here.

TommyD

First on the ICM, I wouldn't worry too much when we are looking at a 6 handed FT and the BB difference is 14 us to 8 them. As Groggy has said, it's very top heavy and we're looking for a top 3+ for the real jumps. It becomes more of an issue if the BB has 3 or 4 BB imo, at the moment it's not a true ICM tragedy to bust here. Also, it's a BHer so there is massive cash equity in both knocking people out and having a stack to cover to knock out. Then again the percentage of the BHer FTs I make and have zero heads is truly staggering so maybe I am not the best to comment on this

Onto the hand, I think it's a rip. Again BHer so I would say P4 is 3betting a value hand, however it does not have to be top end value. They obv aren't folding to a BB jam but the BB might feel oddswise they have to go with something middling, and that would be reflected in a good player's 3bet range where they intend to call the shortstack jam but have all options open to a 4bet from the opener.

Your read is that this is their first 3bet, however you've just seen them from bubble to FT and things are always a little tighter in that period. People love not bubbling and making FTs. I think we have some FE and I think we are doing ok in the ranges with our holding. I'm not super in love with the spot but I am ripping it in.

Summers119

Defo interesting and really helpful to read these comments.

In the £55BH I would go with it yes as the 3 betting range will be far wider. And yes ICM not as relevant in BH but still important.

In a £5.50 BH which I mainly play, against a tight player I would fold on a FT when they cover us as I rarely ever see people 3betting at all never mind 3 betting the hands we dominate. This is where note taking is important for me, as if they are marked as green for me, "A passive fish" and they 3 bet I know to fold a good proportion of my range when shallow stacked and I don't cover them.

LARSON7

Thanks all, really good responses. Cheers