Direct bubble hand

Allan23

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Holzmybeer	Small blind		2000.00	2000.00	90049.50
Allan23	Big blind		4000.00	6000.00	17587.50
	Your hole cards	7 7
Arrogant	Raise		8000.00	14000.00	103962.50
mizpah	Fold
Holzmybeer	Fold
Allan23	All-in		17587.50	31587.50	0.00
Arrogant	Call		13587.50	45175.00	90375.00
Allan23	Show	7 7
Arrogant	Show	K 10
Flop
		2 4 K
Turn
		K
River
		2
Arrogant	Win	Full House, Kings and 2s	45175.00		135550.00

This was the 2.20 rebuy, 7 of us left - 6 paid. I'm 7/7 but 6th and 5th on the other tables are just about as short as me (5 bigs for me, 6 or 7 bigs for 6th and 5th). Importantly min cash was £21, 5x what my buy in for the tourney ended up being.

Whats the play? We're never ever getting a fold and 77 is so often flipping (which we don't really want to do given bubble and other short stacks around us). Call and play flops? Or just accept we do well enough against the opener's range and shove? Fold?!

Summers119

Its an easy all in. Arrogant has a bunch of chips and will open a lot knowing everyone must play tight on the bubble. Therefore, 77s is in good shape and was just unlucky to be in a flip and lose.

I got 8th in this lol so we were the bubble boys. I shoved J10 from the CO for 9bb, not even sure that was correct.

Allan23

Not sure its super easy. 77 is in reasonable but not great shape equity wise, and the min cash is worth a lot. J10 different as you have 9 bigs and an unopened pot = much more chance of folds. i could of course be wrong and its a fist pump jam!

Summers119

Yes maybe not super easy I understand the fold and would fold 55 maybe but with 5bb and 77 and you still being the shortest stack, its a good enough spot for me to try and find the double.

MattBates

Not sure we are unlucky to be in a flip. Think we will be up against 2 overs a lot of the time. There isn't any hand that Arrogant is raise folding. Someone would have to run the numbers on it as its probably very close. I think I might prefer to fold and hope someone else busts first/shove a lot wider in an unopened pot.

Summers119

Fair comments Matt. Was interested so put this in ICMizer. If Arrogant is opening 30% of hands (which I thought was fair given he can put lots of pressure on the bubble then you can go with 77 (+0.44) and even 66+ a9o+ a8s+ but interesting KQs is just a fold. Even if Arrogant is only opening 15% of hands, 77s is still an all in. Still a close spot tho.