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WHAT WOULD YOU DO??
damhawk07
Member Posts: 18
in Poker Chat
CALL OR FOLD 
Comments
An argument for raising both flop and turn but slow playing that board looks fine until the river hits.
Unlucky, but good IMO.
Ignoring ICM you need about 33% vs their range to call the pot size bet on the river. They have all pocket pairs above 7 (not sure if they’d barrel all of these but it’s possible given the bounty incentive, plus AQ KQs AQo maybe QJs.
In terms of combinations then
Pairs: 36 (or 24 with TT+)
AQs: 1
KQs: 1
QJs: 1
AQo: 4
Value: ~31-43 combos
You need to find half as many bluffs as value to get your 33%.
They bet flop into 3 people and don’t let up. They’re just super value heavy. Being hyper optimistic you could give
56s: 4
Ax club: 9
KJc: 1
KTc: 1
It’s a horrible river but a pretty clear fold I think. Even if you give them all the bluffs in the world you’ve got to be pretty confident that they consider that you had something that was happy to call down and get to fold that river to fire it through.
+1
I would have Shoved the Turn tbh ...... but then what do I knowDoes he have bluffs in his range? In this case yes, he can have 65s, fd's and maybe some random 89 suited type stuff.
Does he expect you to fold? Probably not. Your range looks strong here, especially if you play tight. You can potentially have 4x AQ, 4x KQ, QJhh,QThh, 6x 88, 6x 99, 6x TT and 6x JJ, (although you should 3bet some of these pre), which he expects you to call. He likely expects a lot of unknowns to stubbornly call 7x as well because it made a full house. The hands that you might fold on the river might not always call turn, such as weaker pp's than 7 and flush draws. He can still have a fair amount of Qx, and potentially all overpairs. Also he will always go all in when he has one of his value hands. He won't always go all in when he has one of his bluffs.
Maybe this is the one mtt reg where you need to call, I don't know how crazy he is, but I don't think you can go too wrong by folding here. You have a ton of better hands to call as well. This is definitely a good fold vs the average sky regular. Quite a lot of players would have a value bet 100% of the time here and would always give up bluffs.
froozle is skyflyer. skyflyer is froozle.
Weird that the day froozle stopped playing big volume is the day skyflyer shows up on Sky. Almost to the day anyhow. They also play the same.
Can anyone with a sharkscope account check if they've ever played in a tournament together?
I am making observations here by the way, not accusations.
Anyway. I'll get my coat.