DYM Hand

sighcall

Hi All,

Think this is an interesting spot in a Turbo DYM and would be interested to hear peoples thoughts...

I find the HH a bit hard to read so I will describe the situation and give my thoughts...

4 players left, blinds 200/400. I am in the BB with 125 behind (525 including BB) 1 huge stack and 2 small stacks.

Huge stack min raises to 800 which puts everyone at the table all in. Button calls and small blind folds.

I cover the Button so if i call and either me or the big stack wins i cash. So making a call i win the game circa 67% of the time. However the big stack can have a reasonably wide range whereas for the button to call he must have a decent hand. Given the big stack can be quite light and button has to be tight and we only have 98s so its likely the button wins the hand more than 33% of the time.

If i fold we win when the button wins (50% of the time, BUT given the button has called he is likely to be ahead of the big stack and therefore wins more than 50% of the time)

If i fold and the button wins we only have 125. What happens this hand is hard to calculate. It could limp round and we survive 25% of the time or it could just be blind v blind and we survive 50% of the time.

If we survive the blinds were going up to 300/600 so the other small stack is to be forced all in against 1 or 2 players and therefore we win 50% or 67% of the time.

If he survives this then I don't have a clue what happens...

Tikay10

@sighcall

I don't know the answer to your question, but well done on your 14 Streak which is leading the £3.30 Leaderboard. Just gotta hang on now.

VBOL

sighcall

haha thanks - dont jinx it!

Jac35

I think I fold and close my eyes

goldnballz

I would defo be calling too

TWRAMYEP

These spots can defiantly be solved. My feeling is a fold, if correct, isn't going to be much better than 2/1 and your not losing much. I'm calling but no idea if correct.
I would be interested in the result if anyone can be arsed to work these spots out.

sighcall

TWRAMYEP said:

These spots can defiantly be solved. My feeling is a fold, if correct, isn't going to be much better than 2/1 and your not losing much. I'm calling but no idea if correct.
I would be interested in the result if anyone can be arsed to work these spots out.

Not sure what you mean by 2/1? Surely it needs to be better than 1/3 - the odds i get if i call?

TommyD

With stacks as described this is a call before we look at our cards imo. If us in the hand adds only 10% to the chances of the short stack losing, maybe even 5%, we have to take this spot.

sighcall

TommyD said:

With stacks as described this is a call before we look at our cards imo. If us in the hand adds only 10% to the chances of the short stack losing, maybe even 5%, we have to take this spot.

Cheers for your feedback and ill trust your instinct haha.

BUT...you are saying that if we add 10% by calling that means that you dont think we win more than 1 in 10 if we fold? With blinds as they are and we are on the button next and the blinds would put one of the other players all in before us and the big stack is rather active surely this cant be correct? Am i thinking about this wrong?

sighcall

I think we have to win 1 in 5 for 10% and 1 in 10 for 5% actually looking at it.... point still stands tho

bbMike

If you fold and shorty holds you’re in the SB next all-in with 125.

TommyD

sighcall said:

TommyD said:

With stacks as described this is a call before we look at our cards imo. If us in the hand adds only 10% to the chances of the short stack losing, maybe even 5%, we have to take this spot.

Cheers for your feedback and ill trust your instinct haha.

BUT...you are saying that if we add 10% by calling that means that you dont think we win more than 1 in 10 if we fold? With blinds as they are and we are on the button next and the blinds would put one of the other players all in before us and the big stack is rather active surely this cant be correct? Am i thinking about this wrong?

If we fold we are all in next hand in the SB and GTD to be the shortest stack in the pot. If we do ok in that one and win that we might be the next player forced all in as well (not sure where the clock is at, the 542 stack might be forced all in first and could end up getting a walk). I would say if we fold and the shorty doubles we are nearer 1 in 20 than 1 in 10 to cash this. And v AA we are 20% to win this outright with 89s. Just ran the numbers with the generous AA for the shorty and Q7o for the big stack, AA are 87% to hold. Include 98s and that drops to 68%. Best part of 20% there, do you think we cash this if we fold and the shorty wins at least 1 in 5?

sighcall

I think somewhere down the line I have misread that we are forced all in on the SB next and not on the button next. Oops 😳

Yeh given what you said I think it’s deffo a call 😊

Thanks!

MISTY4ME

I see you did go All-in..... What did happen @sighcall ? (Great alias btw )

Smitalos

If you fold here, you'll almost certainly have to win a 3-way/4-way all-in on the next hand. Would you rather have -- in terms of chances to cash;

Scenario #1) The equity of your hand + the equity of the big stack's hand Vs Villian

Scenario #2) The equity of the big stack's hand HU Vs Villian + The chance of you winning a 3-way all-in multiplied by the chance you cash after that?

I thought this was a slam-dunk call until I started thinking about it like this. It's a toughie, because your chance to cash even if the shorty wins this all-in isn't miniscule. Plus, on the next hand, the shorter stacks are in the CO and Button, right? So they're likely to fold, let you go HU against the big stack with your auto-shove on 125 chips.

Honestly? I think I might fold? In 15 seconds, I call, but this is a really cool spot. Love the thread.

sighcall

sighcall said:

I think somewhere down the line I have misread that we are forced all in on the SB next and not on the button next. Oops 😳

Yeh given what you said I think it’s deffo a call 😊

Thanks!

Scrap that - if we were on button next it’s an easy fold: right?

Smitalos summarised my thoughts well

Smitalos

In the next hand, I think we're in the SB?

If we would be on the button, I totally agree. Definitely fold!

Otherwise, it's close, but I like a fold here. We still cash in a surprising % of games where the shorty doubles. Something I definitely under-valued when I looked at this hand on first glance. Would be interested to see other perspectives though

EvilPingu

I probably fold in game but idk if that's right. I'll look at this after midnight (Once the streak promo is over). V interesting spot.

SuperAyr25

fold and pray i think but thats a tough spot and good question

EvilPingu

EvilPingu said:

I probably fold in game but idk if that's right. I'll look at this after midnight (Once the streak promo is over). V interesting spot.

So my thoughts:


Button should never be calling light here, since you're all in either this hand, or next hand in SB. Probably looking at him having something like 75% with QQ+ vs an opener opening most Ax, most pairs, most broadways and maybe the odd thing that looks pretty.

I'm not gonna write out several pages of Maths to avoid boring everyone to death (It pretty much amounts to a tree diagram of the first flip plus subsequent AIPFs when us or other players are forced all in on the blinds and other players act accordingly in either scenario) - I came to the conclusion that we win around 47% of the time by folding, and around 49% of the time by calling, assuming ranges stated above and everyone is playing push/fold based on ICM optimally thereafter.

So if you're looking for a one word answer, mine is: "Call".

But as we know, other players definitely don't play optimally. As soon as other players start doing anything weird in the hands after we fold, suddenly we gain equity from their mistakes.

Also, my method of working out that calling is marginally preferable is oversimplified and is only really an approximation - Sometimes someone picks up AA, jams, and loses. Sometimes someone else gets a hand and jams, meaning we have a 3 way all in to survive where one of the hands involved is super strong. Sometimes that happens to the other players too. Although they're all pretty unlikely and cancel each other out to a certain extent, those aren't accounted for.

I believe the Maths points to this being very marginally a call (admittedly I'd fold in game but when it's something that's right on the edge of what 'should' be a call, like 98s here, it's not the end of the world whatever you choose to do).

-

However, in a world where nobody plays optimally, how does the other players making suboptimal decisions affect what we should do in such a marginal spot?

What about if the button has never heard of ICM and just wants to call off all his pairs, Ax, broadways, basically thinking "I'm not going to get a better hand before the blinds" (since many weaker players in these games will have that thought process) - Should we then fold instead and let the big stack win close to half the time?

Do we fold and give everyone else opportunity to make mistakes in the event that we win the AIPF flip the next hand and the game continues?

I think, even with my Maths saying to call vs the one range I've assigned to each player, it's close enough that notes and how ranges adjust based on that will swing the decision. If the opener is overly tight, then I suspect this will become even more of a call since he now wins the hand more often, and him winning the hand results in us cashing, so there's less reason to not have our equity share in there. If the opener shoves ATC then I'd expect that our 98s will become a fold since the button triples loads, and winning the side pot is actually worse than folding pre for us.

TL;DR - Very long way of saying "Both options are okay tbh" and "It's player dependent and opposite to how you might expect to adapt to the opener's range".