Is this a + EV shove?

suneel7

22 Remaining, cashed.

Blinds 1k/2k

Folds round to small - SB (20bb) shoves effect 10bb with 43s vs BB (10bb) -

attached is the range i feel BB should stack off, but i think i open wider as they've over folding this spot so deep in. Is this plus+ ev I mean, should i just let this one go all the time, some of the time or try and chip up put pressure to play for FT/ 1st? What would you do, which is better in your opinion and why?

suneel7

25% of the time they should call, but I think they're call more 15% - so is it worth it?

Also side note, i think this hand is better to do it with than 108 off for example, that's would be a fold.

suneel7

*hands like q8, j8 off etc are fold pre aswell I think

Essexphil

suneel7 said:

*hands like q8, j8 off etc are fold pre aswell I think

That still leaves 45% of hands. 1 of 3 things apply here:-

1. BB is too tight, and playing like it is 2007;
2. Your table image is super-tight, when you can sneak 1 through; or
3. You are setting fire to money

suneel7

Essexphil said:

suneel7 said:

*hands like q8, j8 off etc are fold pre aswell I think

That still leaves 45% of hands. 1 of 3 things apply here:-

1. BB is too tight, and playing like it is 2007;
2. Your table image is super-tight, when you can sneak 1 through; or
3. You are setting fire to money

Thanks for the input.

If I'm honest abit of all 3.

1. I widened because BB was playing VT
2. Showed down decent hands up until this point and nothing out of line thus far
3. Kinda prone to that one also *sigh* - I guess I still had 37% raw equity in the hand and if we got through with 30bb stack we could of applied serious pressure + sho at the win.

Essexphil

suneel7 said:

Essexphil said:

suneel7 said:

*hands like q8, j8 off etc are fold pre aswell I think

That still leaves 45% of hands. 1 of 3 things apply here:-

1. BB is too tight, and playing like it is 2007;
2. Your table image is super-tight, when you can sneak 1 through; or
3. You are setting fire to money

Thanks for the input.

If I'm honest abit of all 3.

1. I widened because BB was playing VT
2. Showed down decent hands up until this point and nothing out of line thus far
3. Kinda prone to that one also *sigh* - I guess I still had 37% raw equity in the hand and if we got through with 30bb stack we could of applied serious pressure + sho at the win.

The main problem is that you either win 1.5 BB, or in likely horrible shape for 20BB.
You are way less than 37% v his calling range. You are less than 37% v 2 overs, and on about 10% v pairs. Playing poker, so can't do the Maths, but to a call I am guessing you are about -8 BB...

Cammykaze

To give a better answer we need a bit more info. AFAIK we don't know the following info.

1. What type of tournament is it?
2. What is your image at the table?
3. Is there any history between SB and BB

There may be more questions to ask here.

Your BB calling range looks fine from a general perspective. Looking at the dates this post was nearly a month ago

Just thought I would add in a couple of thoughts.

Cammy

grantorino

suneel7 said:

*hands like q8, j8 off etc are fold pre aswell I think

Why do you think 43s>Q8 to shove 10BB effective stacks

FeelGroggy

All the hands you stated T8o, Q8o, J8o are all winning shoves. 43s actually breakeven as a shove for 10bb, but given opponent's are on average going to call too tight it becomes profitable.

suneel7

grantorino said:

suneel7 said:

*hands like q8, j8 off etc are fold pre aswell I think

Why do you think 43s>Q8 to shove 10BB effective stacks

It was what I suspected at the time, after some work with ICMIZER i found out different.

suneel7

FYI

SB pushing range - 43s saying 0.00+ EV (Breakeven) as @FeelGroggy said, people may be over folding in this spot which makes it a slighly +EV shove vs tigher opponent - It seems either way is fine though.



BB Calling Range

suneel7

^35% push - 22% call