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Spot deep in Big Weekend BH
loosecamel
Member Posts: 152
in Poker Chat
Hi everyone
Reposted this hand with hopefully a working HH (thanks madprof).
We're about 9/10 in this situation IIRC. Table dynamics were myself and player in question have been preeetty tight and the table knows it (think by this point I've mentioned I sattied in) with both our blinds being persistently abused. Have been push/folding for the last hour so I've got a fairly tight image (unusually, for those who know me..).
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mrwozza | Small blind | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 116042.00 | |
| railtard11 | Big blind | 3000.00 | 4500.00 | 54241.88 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| mrrungood | Fold | ||||
| loosecamel | Raise | 6666.00 | 11166.00 | 48770.00 | |
| matisback | Call | 6666.00 | 17832.00 | 47563.00 | |
| mrwozza | Fold | ||||
| railtard11 | Call | 3666.00 | 21498.00 | 50575.88 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| railtard11 | Check | ||||
| loosecamel | Bet | 9268.00 | 30766.00 | 39502.00 | |
| matisback | Call | 9268.00 | 40034.00 | 38295.00 | |
| railtard11 | Fold | ||||
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| loosecamel | Check | ||||
| matisback | Bet | 20017.00 | 60051.00 | 18278.00 | |
| loosecamel | Fold | ||||
| matisback | Show |
| |||
| matisback | Win | 40034.00 | 58312.00 | ||
| matisback | Return | 20017.00 | 0.00 | 78329.00 | |
This board hits my range harder than both villains I feel, so a mandatory c-bet. In hindsight 1-2k less may have equally done the trick, although this sizing shapes the pot up for a perfect turn jam. When called by BTN on the flop, I figure his range is gonna be 66-1010 (given dynamics I'm genuinely unsure whether these would have been shoved pre), KQs/KJs(?), occasional flatted AK and occasional AQ float. But all around I think his range is pretty narrow by this point. And my range I think is far wider, given I'd c-bet this with most Axs, 88-1010, KQs, AKo/s and AA (think I check JJ/QQ/KK here).
Turn:
Nice turn for me I think at first, now have some equity with a flush draw, no draws get there, as pointed out above, I don't think villain has a drawing hand in his range here, 89s doesn't call pre given stacks. With a pot-sized bet behind it's a question of shove or check/fold. Every bone in my body was leaning to a shove, even if I'm called with 66-77 or Kx I'd still have roughly 20% equity (and a sizeable bounty) and I think I get folds from 88-1010, rightly or wrongly. After limited thought with the sky timebank, I elected to check and give up if contested. I have enough KQ/AKs that check/call this turn so not worried about protecting my range at all so this would have to be a check/fold.
The reason this hand is troubling me now is because if we were to assume the range I've assigned for villain is correct, we have 6 combinations each of 88-1010 that will fold, 18 combos, and 3 combos each of 66-77 and KQs. If we assume villain folds all 88-1010 when shoved to, then it's a slam dunk shove as villain has 18 folding combos and 9 calling combos (i've eliminated speculative floats and a flatted AK in the range here as I think it's far less likely to be the case). At the time I just felt he was super weighted towards a K which would not fold to a shove. But that does raise a secondary question, given my percieved tightness, do we ever get folds from KJ/KQ here if shoved? I don't think so, but I may be wrong. The only other question is whether I can open jam this hand pre, given my image, I don't think I'd get looked up that light so it'd likely get through and would probably be a +EV play, but I think just raising is fine here and a much lower risk.
As played, I checked, villain bet with my insta-fold button clicked and player was nice to enough to show KQs.
Thanks for anyone's input, it would be appreciated.
Cheers
Loose
Comments
Given that the turn brings in the flush draw and the fact that an Ace should be good a high proportion of the time, I just jam the turn. I can't see many Kx folding, but there is still the chance of folding out passively played underpairs and weak Ax.
That's just my opinion though. Somebody far more competent, both at playing and analysing will give a better view.
BB can have k7, k6, any suited king and offsuit KQ, KJ, K10, K9, 67, (66 and 77 maybe but they rejam sometimes).
Button can have KQ, KJ, K10, maybe 66 and 77, of course not Ak and probs not KK unless its an attempted trap.
Not saying betting flop is bad, but when we do and we get the club turn we've sized up flop perfectly for a turn shove so I would be following through on turn
An issue with c betting 3 way is how often we get folds and how often we can fire a second time (what cards do we want on the turn) when we get called on the flop and how often we get folds when we fire a second time.
@loosecamel
Well done on 4th in that Mini UKOPS thing last night.
Surprised you have not had more replies to this, & though you have posted it in the correct thread, I'm gonna move it across to Poker Chat so it gets more eyeballs.
Was your plan to raise/call pre out of interest?
As played i'm shoving turn with confidence 99 times out of 100.
Interesting to hear some leaning towards checking this flop, do we only ever bet KQ/AK/AA here then? This hand alongside hands like A5cc seem like good candidates to balance our value range? As played it seems everyone is in agreement with shipping it in, I did think as much, shame I didn't have the melons to do so.
In regards to GII pre, is 16bb in a 12min blind tourny with no antes a bit wide to do as standard? Maybe I'm just a knit but it seems there are better spots to find. I'd rejam this over a raise with 16bb but think it may be marginal open jamming idk. Player dependent tbh, more than likely folding to a jam pre though. Haven't really checked a spot like that in a calc before, but I imagine its marginal with 16bb eff.
Thanks for the responses guys, this was an interesting spot so it's nice to get some ideas off others.
as you mentioned id agree with a smaller c bet, i think 1/3 of pot is fine, id then be giving up on all non A or club turns, once you hit your club i think you have to maximise your equity by shoving, its a line that make sense too as you'd play ak, aa, kk maybe kq, the exact same way, opponents ranges will include plenty of kq/kj hands which will likely call as well as plenty of other drawing hands which will fold, even k10/kj could fold sometimes given there would be so few hands it beats that would take your line
Thanks for the responses guys, this was an interesting spot so it's nice to get some ideas off others.
Of course every time you have 16 bigs and AJs doesn't necessarily mean an auto shove, its the type of hand that can defo be raise called/raise folded dependant on opponent/bounty/tournament position etc. Hard to get an exact feel for it by seeing a hand history as dynamic can also be important.
As played flop is borderline cbet/give up, I'm prob leaning toward cbet but defo mega small, to try and give enough room for a second barrel on some turns. Turn is slam dunk shove from the info given.
Nice result in the UKOPS, vwp!
The second point in an interesting topic and one I've been thinking a lot of since playing regularly again.
Matt, do you (or anyone else) think that second barrels are more successful now than they were 10+ years ago? I realise it may be too general a question. It may also be tricky to answer for those who have been playing steadily over the past decade, as opposed to someone who has dipped in and out and, therefore, noticing subtle changes.
It appears, to me, that second barreling a brick-turn gets through more than it might've in a different era. If so, I'm guessing it's due to current-day players, generally, believing c-bets less, and calling to float or with 2nd/3rd pair?
This may all be nonsense due to selective memory and/or small sample sizes.
Would love to hear thoughts from you all, on this matter.