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Thoughts on hand please.
waller02
Member Posts: 9,093
I'll post this here if that's ok, as the Poker clinic doesn't seem to get many visitors these days.
It's my exit hand from tonight's mini and I'm pretty annoyed/unsure with myself.
Sitting 9/30 well into the money and I hate this exit as it just feels like a mistake.
Pre - KQs is pretty, but should I just be folding pre to the 3b?
Turn - A 1/2 pot bet into 2 players and I'm not loving life at all. I block KJ which gets there, he can have sets, AQ and draws. I call. As does the the 3rd guy, for his whole stack. Alarm bells are ringing.
River - I hit trips and Scotty jams. He is never bluffing here is he? Or is he with the other player all in on the turn?
Thoughts wanted please. Which street have I butchered the most? Should I just be folding river and trying to spin up the 14bb? Should I be folding pre? The turn? Or is it even Ok and just unlucky (which I doubt).
It's my exit hand from tonight's mini and I'm pretty annoyed/unsure with myself.
Sitting 9/30 well into the money and I hate this exit as it just feels like a mistake.
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| scotty77 | Small blind | 2500.00 | 2500.00 | 256275.00 | |
| MRBLEWPIE | Big blind | 5000.00 | 7500.00 | 64317.50 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| Yoozer | Fold | ||||
| davon121 | Fold | ||||
| waller02 | Raise | 10000.00 | 17500.00 | 159188.36 | |
| ALLINCOVID | Call | 10000.00 | 27500.00 | 77455.25 | |
| scotty77 | Raise | 32500.00 | 60000.00 | 223775.00 | |
| MRBLEWPIE | Fold | ||||
| waller02 | Call | 25000.00 | 85000.00 | 134188.36 | |
| ALLINCOVID | Call | 25000.00 | 110000.00 | 52455.25 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| scotty77 | Check | ||||
| waller02 | Check | ||||
| ALLINCOVID | Check | ||||
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| scotty77 | Bet | 55000.00 | 165000.00 | 168775.00 | |
| waller02 | Call | 55000.00 | 220000.00 | 79188.36 | |
| ALLINCOVID | All-in | 52455.25 | 272455.25 | 0.00 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| scotty77 | All-in | 168775.00 | 441230.25 | 0.00 | |
| waller02 | All-in | 79188.36 | 520418.61 | 0.00 | |
| scotty77 | Unmatched bet | 89586.64 | 430831.97 | 89586.64 | |
| scotty77 | Show |
| |||
| waller02 | Show |
| |||
| ALLINCOVID | Show |
| |||
| scotty77 | Win | Full House, 10s and Queens | 430831.97 | 520418.61 | |
Turn - A 1/2 pot bet into 2 players and I'm not loving life at all. I block KJ which gets there, he can have sets, AQ and draws. I call. As does the the 3rd guy, for his whole stack. Alarm bells are ringing.
River - I hit trips and Scotty jams. He is never bluffing here is he? Or is he with the other player all in on the turn?
Thoughts wanted please. Which street have I butchered the most? Should I just be folding river and trying to spin up the 14bb? Should I be folding pre? The turn? Or is it even Ok and just unlucky (which I doubt).
Comments
As played flop is standard, turn is a clear fold though, I can’t think of a hand Ryan might have that you are in good shape against. You also have an (assumed) loose cannon behind who can show up with better than KQ.
Calling the 3b pre seems fine. Don't think you should fold turn. His value range is mostly beating you but it seems reasonable to expect one of the site's better regs to have some 3b bluffs too, like suited Ax/Kx hands, but that is probably less likely multi-way. So you're behind most of his value range but the suited Ax hands with two possible flush draws would probably take a similar line. Blocking a lot of the straights is nice too.
The second Q on the river makes you having one less likely, so he might fire a missed flush draw a second time trying to get a T to fold? AA/KK might think they're ahead for the same reason. AJs and JJ that missed their straight draw could take a similar line maybe? Hard to say what he's doing with those kind of hands at this point, might be being really optimistic here.
Tough one. Really curious to see what better people think about it. I know I'm probably playing it exactly the same way you did.
As played I would like to think I can fold the river, but I wouldn't.
The rest plays itself.
I ended up staying up for the best part of an hour afterwards running through the hand in my head as it was bugging me. It felt like a mistake in game, but I was really unsure if it was hence posting it on here.
I would be folding KQo fwiw but KQs seemed a bit too pretty to fold although I do get the point @Sunday8pm makes regarding Ryan not being too OOL 3 handed with a short stack.
On the turn, although really not loving life, I was thinking along the same lines as @NOSTRI. By the river it sank in that there is a strong chance I'm a goner!
"KQ rules in the land of the unraised pot"
Turn: It doesn't feel great even though we have top pair and a gutshot, Scotty seems comfortable enough to now start betting half pot on a board that's very dicey for him. QQ cbets 100% of the time and I don't see a world where 99 doesn't either shove pre and/or doesn't cbet. All his heart draws are happily cbetting and calling off aswell. I think his value range at this point is AQ/KQ/KJ/TT and he does have AA/KK that checks flop sometimes but Scotty probs auto cbets all overpairs in this spot. We're pretty crushed against a good portion of that. The hands we're ahead of here for me is AKcc and AJcc which is 2 combos, there's probs some more hands but can't see Scotty getting too out of line at this point and we've also got to worry about a player behind whose range has probably hit this board. It's easy for me to say seeing the hands but if I was in the moment and saw the half pot from Scotty, that would be screaming AQ/KJ/TT to me and I would be really sad at this point but I probs end up sigh calling turn and when COVID calls it off we're not looking good. It's tough to think about a hand in depth on Sky in the moment with the short timebanks, especially if you're multi-tabling with loads of hand alerts popping off.
River: The river is definitely the easiest decision of the three. Clear fold. You said "He is never bluffing here is he? or is he with the other player all in on the turn" The answer is he is literally never bluffing here, ever. The main pot (270,000) was made on the turn with the 3 of you, on the river there is a 5,000 sidepot with you and Scotty, pretty much a dry side pot. For him to be bluffing he must be confident that you fold a better hand than him but has COVID beat a % of the time aswell for it to be worthwhile...maybe like AJs, getting you to fold Tx and maybe COVID has some flush draw type hands that Scotty is ahead of but it must be close to 0% chance Scotty would do that. Does he shove worse for value? no, JJ cbets 100%, AA x/c's x/f's river I guess. QJs?? seems veryyyyy unlikely and thin. I'm just trying to create a world where we have the best hand here at this point haha. River feels bad but it's just always AQ/KJ and TT isn't it and nothing else.
It feels like we should be getting away from the hand for sure at some point during the hand.
While it turned out that this player DID stick in 33% of his stack to call the 25k 3-bet, we all know that won't happen often.
A decent amount of time when calling the 25k, you'll see a shove from the 75k stack (especially as you're already in the money), which is then likely to see you shut-out by the 3-bettor.
This would be my concern, the likelihood of merely donating 25k without getting to see a flop.
TT vs KQ (x2), flops a set and it runs out with the case two queens.
The last time something such as that happened to me, the buy-in was in florins!
I think this is a situation where Scotty won't have any 3bet bluffs preflop, but he might 3bet a wider value range, hands like 7s, AJ possibly KQ to fold vs you and get it in vs the flatter. The more peely the flatter is the wider he'll be. I think hands like KQo you need to either shove or fold (probably mostly fold) but you can probably get away with peeling KQs although it really isn't a breathtaking situation. Especially when Covid could just back-raise all in and Scotty will probably shove every time. It's probably a good spot to flat Aces.
On the flop I actually think you get a really good situation to bet a small size with your hand as an exploit, although I think in reality your hand is probably meant to check. I think Scotty is going to be unbalanced here and pile all his overpairs and check AK AQ AJ stuff to fold. Maybe he checks aces and tens exactly. I think if you bet even really really small like 20k-25k and it folds to him there is nothing he can do with those hands except fold, which is a huge result for you. You have a really easy bet fold spot vs Scotty and if Covid puts it in you're equity is gonna be fine vs him anyway.
The turn as played isn't ideal but I think it's a spot you just have to fold. Scotty knows how well this queen connects with both your ranges and I agree with mini that the only hands he might consider bluffing is exactly AJc and AKc and even then they might check. It feels like you don't have much fold equity as Scotty on this card.
River is also just a fold, I think best case scenario we chop with Scotty and that's assuming he 3bets KQ preflop, which he might not do and plays it this way postflop which again he might not. Scotty is never bluffing here for sure, he might not even be ever bluffing turn.
That hand was the very last hand of my session last night at nearly 2am and I found it a bit difficult to switch off and get to sleep as I knew I had made an error, or even multiple errors. It's always more annoying to bust through your own doing rather than a bad beat or cooler.
Yeah I felt I'd played it all wrong but I wasn't 100% sure what my approach should have been pre flop, on the flop and on the turn. I knew straight away that my river call was the biggest error, I had alarm bells ringing but still ended up pressing the call button.
Thanks again all.
The idea of flatting AA is a great shout.