Who won what, Wednesday June 17th. The chicken & egg conundrum

Tikay10

Morning.

Last night saw the introduction of the new revised (revised is corporate speak for "lowered") guarantees. It's quite interesting to speculate "what if" they had not been changed.



The Main was dropped from £10,000 to £8,000 & made £9,390.

The Mini was dropped from £3,000 to £2,500 & made £2,525.

The Mega Stack was dropped from £2,000 to £1,500 & made £1,660.

Sheriff was dropped for £3,000 to £2,500 & made £3,150.

The Turbo was dropped from £3,000 to £2,000 & made £2,130.

Getting the picture? So the question is what would they have made if the Guarantees had NOT been reduced?

It's a trick question, of course, as we will never know, but I'd bet good money they would all have missed the old guarantees. It's a really curious subject though, the relationship between a Guarantee & whether or not a player registers. Do players really look at the Main & say "oh yes, it's 10 balloons so I'll play, but it's a no-go at 8"?

OK, on we go.

£1,000 BH £1,000

£8,000 Predator Main £9,390

£2,500 Predator Mini £2,525

£1,500 Mega Stack £1,660

£2,500 Sheriff £3,150

£2,000 Turbo £2,130

£1,500 Quickdraw £1,500

£1,500 Mid Ex £1,740

Tikay10

£1,000 Bounty Hunter (£1,000)

No rest for the wicked, & whilst many of us were glued to the TV watching Villa play out a 0-0 with Sheffield United, & Hawk Eye making a fool of itself, it was BAU for The Bates as he took the opener.

Runner-Up __IRE__ ran 8th in the Sunday Major that Mr Awkward won on May 17th.

In 4th was Enut, adding a few bob to the £189 he collected when 4th in Sunday's big buck Escalating Freeroll.




@MattBates 144000 1 £192.40 + £137.20 Head Prizes 8

@__IRE__ 0 2 £114.40 + £40.43 Head Prizes 4

@loololollo 0 3 £78 0

@bigfatfish 0 4 £57.20 + £40.31 Head Prizes 4

@Enut 0 5 £41.60 + £7.50 Head Prizes 1

@scotty77 0 6 £36.40 + £33.76 Head Prizes 4

Tikay10

£8,000 Predator Bounty Hunter (£9,390)

Not much MTT history on the winner other than 7th in Midnight Express 2 months ago, so this was quite a step up in class.

Note that it made £9,390, comfortably ahead of the £8,000 guarantee, but well below it's previous £10k number.


@PSquiddles 1565000 1 £1225.39 + £507.17 Head Prizes 15

@Richrash93 0 2 £723.03 + £95.71 Head Prizes 5

@Jessieak 0 3 £434.29 + £230.42 Head Prizes 9

@chicknMelt 0 4 £343.67 + £185.46 Head Prizes 10

@paddy719 0 5 £291.09 + £142.25 Head Prizes 6

@shipppp09 0 6 £241.79 + £65.04 Head Prizes 4

Tikay10

£2,500 Mini Predator (£2,525)

AIRWAVE had his best score since running 6th in Avenger Main in March.

Donald was runner-up in the Mini for the 2nd time in under a fortnight, surely the win must be due soon.


@AIRWAVE 1010000 1 £315.62 + £67.97 Head Prizes 8

@thisltedu 0 2 £176.75 + £49.81 Head Prizes 12

@lions86 0 3 £104.28 + £18.44 Head Prizes 5

@tomwrx 0 4 £82.69 + £43.10 Head Prizes 13

@Joec523 0 5 £69.44 + £34.24 Head Prizes 8

@UKpabs 0 6 £56.18 + £22.39 Head Prizes 6

Tikay10

£1,500 Mega Stack B/Hunter (£1,660)

Remarkably, this was the 4th headline MTT win by manosalex in the last fortnight.

Shrimpy28 does particularly well in the Mega, this being his third FT in it in a fortnight, 2 x 4th's & a 5th.

Darty, who min-cashed the Sunday Major 10 days earlier, was 6th.


@manosalex 830000 1 £236.55 + £182.71 Head Prizes 10

@peiratis88 0 2 £151.89 + £64.95 Head Prizes 6

@hhamza162 0 3 £94.62 + £48.76 Head Prizes 5

@Shrimpy28 0 4 £76.78 + £16.88 Head Prizes 1

@nottoofar 0 5 £62.66 + £51.68 Head Prizes 5

@TheDart 0 6 £52.29 + £29.53 Head Prizes 3

Tikay10

£2,500 Sheriff Bounty Hunter (£3,150)

gac123 recorded wins on successive nights, the £3k BH (RIP) on Tuesday & now Sheriff, & this was his 10th Headline MTT FT in June.


@gac123 315000 1 £582.75 + £348.24 Head Prizes 7

@siak 0 2 £346.50 + £119.53 Head Prizes 5

@MasherMan 0 3 £236.25 + £126.57 Head Prizes 4

@tlaver11 0 4 £173.25 + £114.33 Head Prizes 4

@poker69 0 5 £126 + £84.38 Head Prizes 4

@sandhu05 0 6 £110.25 + £72.95 Head Prizes 3

Tikay10

£2,000 Turbo Bounty Hunter (£2,130)

Well done to HarryWit on his best ever score on Sky Poker, & there was a 2nd FT of the evening for Darty.


@HarryWit 355000 1 £319.50 + £354.62 Head Prizes 15

@JCNuts 0 2 £213 + £48.70 Head Prizes 3

@TheDart 0 3 £127.80 + £37.27 Head Prizes 3

@Millwilder 0 4 £106.50 + £22.50 Head Prizes 2

@sadierose 0 5 £85.20 + £62.80 Head Prizes 5

@lewis274 0 6 £69.22 + £33.75 Head Prizes 3

Tikay10

£1,500 Quickdraw (£1,500)

NooGooood, like gac123, recorded wins on successive nights, but gets the nod as both his wins were in Quickdraw which is a very unusual stat.


@NooGooood 140000 1 £400 + £292.17 Head Prizes 7

@ffbuwliens 0 2 £240 + £28.13 Head Prizes 1

@StayOrGo 0 3 £160 + £84.38 Head Prizes 4

@Climwinner 0 4 £37.50 Head Prizes 2

@Mullers007 0 5 £126.57 Head Prizes 6

@tug180 0 6 £37.50 Head Prizes 2

Tikay10

£1,500 Midnight Express B/Hunter (£1,740)

The shrewd Savvy booked his 2nd win in just over a month, adding Mid Ex to the Mini UKOPS he took down in May.


@Savvy_79 261000 1 £247.95 + £202.71 Head Prizes 11

@Stozzaa 0 2 £159.21 + £41.72 Head Prizes 5

@AKAscotty 0 3 £99.18 + £69.02 Head Prizes 8

@big_al99 0 4 £80.47 + £35.63 Head Prizes 4

@luckme002 0 5 £65.69 + £58.47 Head Prizes 5

@wilkidx 0 6 £54.81 0

Tikay10

£1,000 Escalating Freeroll (409 entries)

Well done to EdNo, great result.

I have to make mention of the numpty in 9th, chompy_imo. Worst dresser I've ever met, a Peterborough United supporter & drives a lawn mower. But he might just be the best pro sports bettor I've ever known, & if you followed his tips blind you'd be quids in. He's especially good at L1 & L2 stuff. Apart from a short spell as a Manager in a Joe Coral shop, never done a day's work in his life, unless you count his articles in Racing Post (he used to be "SpotLight" or somesuch as I recall) or Racing & Football Outlook. Oh, & he was author of the best-selling book on "The Effect of the Draw in Horse Racing". And yet he lives well & goes to Vegas pokering 3 or 4 times every year. Basically he lives the dream, & it all comes from his sports betting expertise. Follow him on Twitter & you'll be very unlucky not to make a few bob, he gives occasional tips & they are free. His Twitter handle is @GWheldonRFO


@Jessieak 1227000 1 £245

@EdNo 0 2 £137.50

@slokazilla 0 3 £84

@scream23 0 4 £64

@Glynn2016 0 5 £54

@HitOnRiver 0 6 £44



@Kmac150 0 7 £33
@turner71 0 8 £22
@Chompy_imo 0 9 £14.50
@Terry001 0 10 £11
@YouMad 0 11 £11
@djsppiros 0 12 £11
@Doubleme 0 13 £11
@anjie1970 0 14 £11
@harry2008 0 15 £11
@EBBERDON 0 16 £8
@libchijake 0 17 £8
@coote12345 0 18 £8
@pascoe8109 0 19 £8
@89MJ89 0 20 £8
@Water21 0 21 £5
@ASHEAD22 0 22 £5
@brunoboy51 0 23 £5
@Missy69 0 24 £5
@livwiz14 0 25 £5
@LUFCYRA 0 26 £4
@chuckles22 0 27 £4
@thebookie2 0 28 £4
@roytheboy7 0 29 £4
@Aglestone 0 30 £4
@Emajjb 0 31 £3.70
@flashgorm 0 32 £3.70
@bartoniron 0 33 £3.70
@1-DAY 0 34 £3.70
@ktf88 0 35 £3.70
@DOUBLESNO7 0 36 £3.50
@ian1976 0 37 £3.50
@Smokie248 0 38 £3.50
@fastfood 0 39 £3.50
@darryn1973 0 40 £3.50
@WestwardHo 0 41 £3.40
@lyonsbob06 0 42 £3.40
@itsuptoyou 0 43 £3.40
@gobbleoff 0 44 £3.40
@Karloco 0 45 £3.40
@hayleyc2 0 46 £3.40
@luckygud 0 47 £3.40
@HOLLYWHIT 0 48 £3.40
@ANTC4 0 49 £3.40
@kelvh1878 0 50 £3.40
@Feel_Bad 0 51 £3.30
@gunner81 0 52 £3.30
@Serin 0 53 £3.30
@Washyboy99 0 54 £3.30
@Snipe 0 55 £3.30
@thefa1lacy 0 56 £3.30
@tex 0 57 £3.30
@SJspanky1 0 58 £3.30
@carson88 0 59 £3.30
@ribeiro66 0 60 £3.30
@BOBTHEBEAR 0 61 £3.20
@oldbelter 0 62 £3.20
@mint2210 0 63 £3.20
@Pedro2008 0 64 £3.20
@Blueleader 0 65 £3.20
@Stuyte 0 66 £3.20
@8lade77 0 67 £3.20
@MRBEBB937 0 68 £3.20
@hitmansin 0 69 £3.20
@AJE222 0 70 £3.20
@squeak13 0 71 £3.20
@poppy765 0 72 £3.20
@RoryNo2 0 73 £3.20
@billytheki 0 74 £3.20
@amazinal 0 75 £3.20

Tikay10

£1,000 Rewards Freeroll (1,163 runners)

@ianowls04 2326000 1 £100

@Scott4444 0 2 £60

@ryan02139 0 3 £40

@arnie164 0 4 £30

@warner07 0 5 £30

@Lowit 0 6 £30

HAYSIE

Tikay10 said:

Morning.

Last night saw the introduction of the new revised (revised is corporate speak for "lowered") guarantees. It's quite interesting to speculate "what if" they had not been changed.



The Main was dropped from £10,000 to £8,000 & made £9,390.

The Mini was dropped from £3,000 to £2,500 & made £2,525.

The Mega Stack was dropped from £2,000 to £1,500 & made £1,660.

Sheriff was dropped for £3,000 to £2,500 & made £3,150.

The Turbo was dropped from £3,000 to £2,000 & made £2,130.

Getting the picture? So the question is what would they have made if the Guarantees had NOT been reduced?

It's a trick question, of course, as we will never know, but I'd bet good money they would all have missed the old guarantees. It's a really curious subject though, the relationship between a Guarantee & whether or not a player registers. Do players really look at the Main & say "oh yes, it's 10 balloons so I'll play, but it's a no-go at 8"?

OK, on we go.

£1,000 BH £1,000

£8,000 Predator Main £9,390

£2,500 Predator Mini £2,525

£1,500 Mega Stack £1,660

£2,500 Sheriff £3,150

£2,000 Turbo £2,130

£1,500 Quickdraw £1,500

£1,500 Mid Ex £1,740

I suppose most players like to have a whinge over reduced guarantees.

Does it therefore create an argument against increasing them.

You have argued that whether the guarantee of a midweek main is guaranteed at 8k, or 10k, makes little difference to the average player.

I can only speak for myself, but in my case this is true.

Wouldn't it therefore have been better to have not increased them in the first place.

If you took the Sunday Major as an example.

If you had left the guarantee at 15k, everyone would have found out that it was hitting well over 20k via the forum, and by word of mouth.

Entries may have increased as a result.

Had the guarantee remained at 15k, you wouldn't have to go through the bad publicity of reducing it.

If you argue that something like a 20% reduction in a guarantee will make little difference, then why increase them.

Don't get me wrong I am not try to be a smart ar se, and I think that balancing all the guarantees on a daily basis must be extremely difficult.

I suppose my argument is really that if you started a 3k guaranteed tourney, that suddenly started reaching a 10k prize pool, the norm seems to be that you would increase the guarantee.

Yet all the relevant players would be aware of the increased prize pool, and would be glad to continue to enter.

If the guarantee remained the same, it could withstand fluctuations without affecting the guarantee, or the survival of that particular tourney.