I have a few thoughts, nothing really negative though. I think that applying new innovative technologies using Blockchain is where the future lies, and where the big money is going to be made. Security is one of the most important things in the future, imo. I think as bitcoin is decentralised, it adds a touch of gloss to the speculators wanting ways around the “ system”. Although, I do think digital coins are likely to be a big part of the future. Digital coins have had so much bad press over the last few years, mainly due to the theft off, or folks flaunting the fact that they have a large holding, then getting boshed, or just corrupt exchanges. The total of 21 million coins that can be mined, will be true to a point. As has been well publicised,some have been lost forever. Not just the ones that ended up in landfill, but I know three people that had some years ago, when they were worth nowt,who then hastily tried to locate them when the price spiked. Unfortunately for them, they couldn’t recall their passwords etc.😖...🥳, they’re unlikely to be the only ones in that camp. Most things are tracked by charts these days,so you tend to get herd moves in things, without any real fundamental reasons for spikes and falls. Although, the price can easily be manipulated by media stories, the same as stocks are. There are folks with large holdings, countries too, which kind of takes the gloss of owning them for moi. The Winklevoss twins for example, reportedly owning over 1%. You mentioned gold. Gold hasn’t really got any intrinsic value,but has got intrinsic cost, to a degree. It too has a cost to mine. Gold, imo, will always have desirability of some sort, but fluctuates like most things. Although the impact on the price for any individual, will be determined by the currency strength, or weakness,of the buyers currency. You would expect, after printing all this new money, that inflation should occur in the future. The stock market often welcomes inflation, money has no conscience . Exhibit 1, poker.👅
In conclusion, not a clue about bitcoin,but the desire is there to push up the price for obv reasons. Whether that comes via news flow or through fundamental reasons,the jury is out. I’d expect some countries will promote it, and others will try to ban it, of sorts.
I have a hunch it will just bump along for the foreseeable, one for the traders.
FYI, DAI, TUSD, Curvi.fi/y LP and curve.fibusd LP are all pegged to the dollar. so your investment will not fluctuate at all - its basically the smartest savings account in the world.
Your money is used for arbitrages between the dollar pegged assets for example, and provides liquidity to exchanges, generating exchange fees. All of this is handled automatically, following whatever is the most profitable strategy.
I have a few thoughts, nothing really negative though.
Digital coins have had so much bad press over the last few years, mainly due to the theft off, or folks flaunting the fact that they have a large holding, then getting boshed, or just corrupt exchanges. The total of 21 million coins that can be mined, will be true to a point. As has been well publicised,some have been lost forever. Not just the ones that ended up in landfill, but I know three people that had some years ago, when they were worth nowt,who then hastily tried to locate them when the price spiked. Unfortunately for them, they couldn’t recall their passwords etc.😖...🥳, they’re unlikely to be the only ones in that camp. Most things are tracked by charts these days,so you tend to get herd moves in things, without any real fundamental reasons for spikes and falls. Although, the price can easily be manipulated by media stories, the same as stocks are. There are folks with large holdings, countries too, which kind of takes the gloss of owning them for moi. The Winklevoss twins for example, reportedly owning over 1%. You mentioned gold. Gold hasn’t really got any intrinsic value,but has got intrinsic cost, to a degree. It too has a cost to mine. Gold, imo, will always have desirability of some sort, but fluctuates like most things. Although the impact on the price for any individual, will be determined by the currency strength, or weakness,of the buyers currency. You would expect, after printing all this new money, that inflation should occur in the future. The stock market often welcomes inflation, money has no conscience . Exhibit 1, poker.👅
In conclusion, not a clue about bitcoin,but the desire is there to push up the price for obv reasons. Whether that comes via news flow or through fundamental reasons,the jury is out. I’d expect some countries will promote it, and others will try to ban it, of sorts.
I have a hunch it will just bump along for the foreseeable, one for the traders.
Agree there has been a lot of bad press, which is to be expected when the technology disrupts so many industries - they will fight back any way they can. You missed out the part about it being used to buy drugs etc (as if that not something every other currency in existence is used for in some part).
Lost coins only add to the scarcity, so other than it being very bad news for who ever lost them that isn't a big deal. In my opinion the user experience will get better - there are regulated institutions that will take custody of your crypto assets for you - coinbase and crypto.com spring to mind + the first "Crypto Bank" has just been approved in USA.
Kraken Financial is the first digital asset company in U.S. history to receive a bank charter recognized under federal and state law, and will be the first regulated, U.S. bank to provide comprehensive deposit-taking, custody and fiduciary services for digital assets
The Winklevoss twins took a massive early gamble and have been rewarded for their foresight. They own around $1b worth, or approximately 0.5% of the supply. There will always be "whales", who buy in early and make a killing, I don't see that as a reason to be put off. They are doing a lot to legitimise Bitcoin by offering regulated services through they crypto exchange Gemini).
Do you have any feeling about the supply being cut in half effecting the price? Demand doesn't seem to be waning at all, the opposite if anything. Surely that will have an effect?Historically it doesn't happen straight away -for example the last halving was in mid 2016, and the price peak wasn't reached until about 1.5 years later. I think we can expect each cycle to take a little longer each time too as larger markets take more to move.
@DustoLucko - I see someone else has been down the rabbit hole too. Hopefully the stock to flop model is accurate, making the AVERAGE price $100k this halving cycle, with a peak likely much higher.
@Chilling - It will be interesting to see how the currency war between china and USA plays out. Would you not say that a currency not controlled by any one nation would make a better global reserve currency? That is the dream for BTC ofc. To me it makes sense, but I can see why any country will do whatever they can to make their currency the global standard.
I personally store as little wealth as possible in fiat currencies, and dont use the dollar pegged pools. I do use the BTC pool though which is shy I blacked out my balance. (also a curve one, but the underlying assets are pegged to BTC, on the ethereum network)
@kapowblamz - Big ETH fan too. I have about as much of that as BTC, together making up about 50% of my crypto portfolio. The rest is split between many other shitcoins. Interesting that you chose BCH over BTC. I am aware that it offers faster and cheaper transactions. For me there is only one Bitcoin, and will only ever be one Bitcoin. The security of the bitcoin network is far superior, so I don't understand why it would be attractive to store value on a less secure network, especially for a large institution or a country for example. Scarcity cant be copied. Any technology deemed to be superior can easily be adapted by the bitcoin network.
BCH hash power is about 1.5% of bitcoin, making it much more vulnerable to attack. I don't know the technical details but couldn't like one big BTC mining farm simply switch their hash power over to BCH and make the network completely useless by making malicious transactions and confirming them?
Tbh I have no idea about bch security. Any info I pretend to know about crypto and stocks is all just plagiarised from bfi on 2p2 and a bit from Calvin Ayre. It's worked out OK so far.
@chicknMelt , I bet the Winklevoss Twins are keen to help legitimise bitcoin😆 Bitcoin does appear to have a lot in its favour at the minute. With the possibility of negative interest rates, fixed income allocation will likely be looking for a home. Bitcoin might well receive some flow from there. I think most folks knew the stock markets were overbought , the PE’s were daft. A big correction is often healthy, but it would be interesting to see if bitcoins chart diverges against the stocks charts. Bitcoin was obviously pumped and dumped in 2017, so I think less volatility in the price may give it more credibility. Some well known companies have bought in, which might make it more stable. Retail investors are known to go into tilt mode when they can’t decide between greed or fear. A lot of folks lost a fortune when bitcoin got dumped 3 years ago. The supply halving. Well, it should be a positive, but who knows what is going to happen in the future. If there were to be a stock market crash, then some might sell bitcoin to raise funds. I know that goes against your store of value. I read somewhere that China might stop mining in 2021,and 1M bitcoins might get moved. I’m not sure who hold those bitcoin, but I see foreclosures have gone up alarmingly in China. China just kept building and building to hit their 10% GDP over the years, but now a lot of private companies are suffering through the virus and the trade war. That’s another story though. Russia have a new law that allows bitcoin, but not to be spent in Russia? I think that bitcoin as an official global currency is not very likely , imo. There’s about 3billion people earning less than $2.50 per day? So I’d presume their wages and living standard would have to dramatically change, unless bitcoin is just for the wealthy. They would probably need a smart phone too. There are some far flung places as you know. Bitcoin won’t be going away, so i think there’s every chance it could be higher in the future. I think it needs to diverge from the stocks charts. Itsover4u said about the coin they bought into. They all move together, at least the popular ones. I have traded stocks in the past, it’s uncanny how when the USA markets got hit by say 4%, then surprise surprise, the Nikkei,and the Hang Seng and the Ftse fell almost the same. I reckon there’s far more bitcoin that are not accessible than is realised, which you rightly state should help the price. I saw there was an Irish chap that lost £47m by writing his codes on a piece of paper, then losing it🤣. Should’ve got himself a hardware wallet😖
I also saw that bitcoin fell 7% after an address that had been dormant for years, started moving 100 bitcoins around. That’s knee jerking in my book, not in for the long haul.
@chilling Its not surprising that companies doing their best to snap up patents, was aware of n-chain, and IBM, but not Alibaba. It will be interesting to see how much control these large organisations manage to take. It goes against the grain of the whole open source and completely trustless sharing economy movement.
I do wonder how they plan on monetising these patents, when the organisations that may end up using them are decentralised, and impossible to shut down. What jurisdiction will enforce it, and how?
I'm not aware of these patents hindering any of the crypto projects out there atm either - Innovation is exploding at such a pace its almost impossible to keep up with it.
My personal favourite example is AAVE/LEND. Well worth a look.
Aave (from the Finnish word for "ghost") is an open source non-custodial protocol on Ethereum for decentralized lending and borrowing. For lenders, the protocol mints ERC20-compliant aTokens at a 1:1 ratio to supplied assets. Interest immediately starts compounding continuously, represented by a steady increase in the amount of aTokens held by the lender. This interest stream may be redirected to any address, separate from the aTokens that represent the underlying principal.
Users can borrow against most supplied assets; the collateralization ratio and liquidation threshold depends on the asset, as does the liquidation penalty, which anyone can get as a bonus for liquidating an unhealthy loan. Interest rates adjust algorithmically based on supply and demand, but Aave lets borrowers opt in to and out of (at any time) a stable rate that changes less often. The protocol keeps a liquidity reserve to ensure withdrawal at any time.
Aave offers flash loans: trustless, uncollateralized loans where borrowing and repayment must occur in the same transaction. Aimed at developers, this feature could lead to innovative uses of DeFi. Aave's native governance token is LEND; the only fees are 0.25% of originated loans and 0.09% of flash loans; these go toward burning LEND, rewarding lenders, and compensating affiliates. Source: defipulse.com
Flash loans are particularly interesting/ novel.
Stuff like AAVE opens up new business models: for example you could pay for a subscription by locking up your asset, and redirecting the interest stream to netflix. A lossless lottery like this already exists.
They are also working on decentralised mortgages, by partnering with realT, a real estate tokenisation firm.
regarding the lost bitcoins - is this an important factor for you? I dont place much weight on it because there are already custodial services that make the whole experience a lot more grandma friendly, although there is still some way to go. That is to be expected with a new technology though?
@kapowblamz I read up on Calvin Ayre. He has switched his support to Bitcoin SV now -another Bitcoin fork, run by a known fraudster Craig Wright. Craig has repeatedly claimed to be Satoshi Nakomoto, providing provably fraudulent evidence on every occasion when simply moving any of the genesis bitcoin would prove his case. I'd be very careful following anything he says. Your on to a winner with ETH though in my opinion. All of the decentralised finance stuff is being built on top of it, and they have more credible connections to the business world than any other project: Accenture, a number of banks including large American ones, Ernst & Young, Intel, Microsoft are all members of the Ethereum Enterprise Alliance https://entethalliance.org/eea-members/
@chicknMelt , I’m not sure what category on the forum this thread should be on, probably not this one. I was going to suggest the rail, but you can find your thread in the basement in no time on there. One reason for following it is obv because of the state of the economies and future financial problems that must arise. Anyway, I’ve a few posers and opinions and stuff, not all my opinions obv,as you’ll see. There’s no end of info on bitcoin online and other coins,seems similar to when I followed the markets closely a while back. Asking the same questions as before,and I notice if you google bitcoin, all the scams pop up first. Firstly, and you don’t obv have to reply to this question as it’s rather personal. Im wondering how you invest/buy your crypto. You imply you’re drip feeding into crypto. Is that because you’re in for the long haul and you’re not bothered what price you buy at? There are so many so called “ experts” out there, regarding chart reading etc,that could possibly indicate that you could pick up bitcoin at lower prices. Holding on to cash, waiting for a desired price to buy is not being considered? If something is volatile in price, then there are likely lots of opportunities to jump in and out, still keeping your same goal.Im not referring to day trading,just looking for more opportunities.
I think crypto needs to decouple from the stocks charts,which hasn’t happened up to now. Different countries are treating bitcoin in different ways, which doesn’t bode well for it to be a dominant world wide currency. In China, where they have the highest hash rate, the PBoC regard bitcoin as a “ special virtual commodity “. They are also working on introducing a digital currency of the Yuan, although it won’t be on the blockchain. A while back, maybe more than a year ago, there were a few countries that were fed up with the dollar being the reserve currency. Is the dollar under attack?
If I owned bitcoin, I would have the liquidity in the back of my mind, regarding how many are in circulation. Whales and big institutions often shake out the retail investors. The retail investors being the ones that ramp up the price, more often than not. There seems to be a strange way of calculating transactions too. That’s at the bottom.
Micro strategy had a lot of cash on their sheet, returned some to share holders,and have taken a punt on bitcoin as a store of value. It always bothers me when big holders get in,mainly due to potential manipulation of the price. They can also get into bed with other big institutions, and then play the price on ETF’s or Futures etc. They have no scruples😲. As it looks bleak for fixed income for the foreseeable, i don’t think there’s much out there to go for. Although if the stocks crashed, there’s money to be made on the downside as usual, then what normally happens,is a rebuild. It will be interesting to see how that all plays out. There was thought that crypto had no exposure to the stock market, but owning Microstrategy’s stock,and others, does give shareholders indirect exposure to crypto. That might not be a good thing. Bitcoin isn’t blockchain, obv, so I’m wondering if it’s like the Californian gold rush. The ones that made the big money, were the stores and suppliers. In this case, it will be the exchanges etc. Stock to flow forecasts are historic. A wise man once said, history is no guide to the future. That stock to flow forecast will be something that will be proven correct or wrong, time will tell.
I’m wondering why the governments, treasuries, around the world, don’t subsidise ,or even have departments that mine bitcoin for free, to a point, if it has the same or more value than gold. Would that not make sense, especially if you hold bullion, and are bothered about future inflation.
I still have an open mind on it,it could pop, or crash.
@chilling i'm happy for the thread to me moved if mods deem it appropriate. Said that in OP - agree this might not be the correct place for it but this is where the action is.
Im wondering how you invest/buy your crypto. You imply you’re drip feeding into crypto.
pretty much correct, although my plan is to stop buying in once bitcoin reaches is ATH of around $20k. I treat anything under $10k as a bargain and buy as much as I can. S2F remains to be proven as you say, I agree, but that is roughly what I work on. My plan is to start selling at $50k+, with most of it being at $100k+. I realise this may never happen, but feel it is a realistic expectation at the same time.
Bitcoin has the better qualities of money than any other asset in history, and that is what I base my assumptions on. Durability gets resolved the longer bitcoin is a thing, although it still has some way to go to rival gold. Time Bitcoin survives for is the main factor though, and as it ages, it becomes less and less vulnerable in that respect. Throughout human history, the "money" with the best "attributes of money" has ALWAYS won. For example, Gold won as a store of value because there is nothing else that is as scarce, fungible and durable. Silver is second best, because it is less scarce. Diamonds dot work because they aren't fungible (one diamond can be of better quality than another) or divisible -wheat doesnt work because it isn't durable. Bitcoin beats everything else, even Gold, especially the more established it becomes.
Having said all of this, I do agree that Bitcoin and crypto is very correlated to other assets especially(negatively) to the DXY, and also (+) to the stock market. I think this is probably to be expected while it remains a speculative asset, which is still the stage it is in atm.
It is not set in stone that bitcoin would survive a collapse of the dollar for example, which is its whole point. Bitcoin is entering into its defining era right now. It eventually does need to decouple from stock markets, but I think that might take longer than some people hope. After all it is only 12 years old, but has already achieved what gold took 100's of years to do in terms of establishing itself as a store of value. All it has to do is survive for another 10 or so years and it has pretty much established itself as a thing that will never go away. (how old is the internet, and how long did that take to be a thing that will never go away)
You talk about manipulation. Perhaps the biggest manipulation of all is the supply shock of halving the supply every four years. Bitcoin enthusiasts talk about this being a game theory play to enhance adoption. The creator was big on game theory and and applied his knowledge to bitcoin.
If there are massive cycles of price increase, and decrease, it will attract retail investors at the same time as ruling out institutional investors, since they want a stable store of value. Can you think of any reason that the difficulty adjustment (how much processing power required to produce the next block) is adjusted every 2 weeks, but the supply is only adjusted every 4 years? The supply shock is intended in my opinion, and the more i think about it the more genius is seems as a method of redistributing wealth - institutions are only become more interested as it becomes more stable
Not a fan of BTC here and surprised it's being mentioned in 2020. I guess it depends which standpoint you come from.
My issues with Bitcoin come from its lack of integrity/transparency, tangibility and practical usage in the real world. There are two types of BTC advocates, speculators and ideologists. I find it hard to get into an investment debate with either types because as soon as you say something negative about BTC they switch off it doesn't matter if you come across with the most compelling arguments.
I follow Tom Lee on CNBC, he was a massive Bitcoin advocate a few years back making some insane price predictions, none of which came true. Now he tends to commentate on mainstream stocks and boy does he know his beans, he has hit the nail firmly on the head with pretty every stock market prediction since the March lows.
Mike Novogratz another respected Hedge Fund manager in the US, also said crypto shouldn't be more than 5% of your overall investable assets. Then you can invest until your hearts content in the knowledge that you wont lose your shirt.
The price of bitcoin isn't led by retail investors anymore, it's the institutions who have been trading futures on the CME for a few years now. Retail investors pretty much the same ones who were speculating on BTC are now focused on tech stocks, through trading apps such as 212 and Robinhood and creating the same bubbles as they did in 2017 with BTC. Greed and Fear is endemic in human nature as was so famously pointed out by Warren Buffet many years ago.
@ACEGOONER I would be interested to hear why you think BTC has a lack of integrity/transparency?
Its practical usage in the real world is to circumvent censorship, as a hedge against in your currency, as a trustless store of value then eventually as trustless medium of exchange. All of these things seem pretty important to me. They aren't so important in a country run fairly, but are of utmost important if you are a citizen in a country that isn't or whose currency has problems.
Did you know that Bitcion is currently at, or near its all time high in multiple currencies? Did you know that virtually every government currency that has ever existed has collapsed and ended up being worthless?
Mainstream media certainly got caught up in the mania of 2017. They recommended buying all sorts of cryptos at all time highs, but didn't mention any of them before they were at their peaks.
Its interesting that you mention Tom Lee and Mike Novogratz - both are massive fans of bitcoin, still. Tom Lee said this about bitcoin, earlier this year,
Mike Novogratz said this, this year:
If everyone had 5% of their portfolio in crypto/bitcoin, the market would be hundreds of times the size it is today.
Comments
I think that applying new innovative technologies using Blockchain is where the future lies, and where the big money is going to be made.
Security is one of the most important things in the future, imo.
I think as bitcoin is decentralised, it adds a touch of gloss to the speculators wanting ways around the “ system”. Although, I do think digital coins are likely to be a big part of the future.
Digital coins have had so much bad press over the last few years, mainly due to the theft off, or folks flaunting the fact that they have a large holding, then getting boshed, or just corrupt exchanges.
The total of 21 million coins that can be mined, will be true to a point.
As has been well publicised,some have been lost forever.
Not just the ones that ended up in landfill, but I know three people that had some years ago, when they were worth nowt,who then hastily tried to locate them when the price spiked.
Unfortunately for them, they couldn’t recall their passwords etc.😖...🥳, they’re unlikely to be the only ones in that camp.
Most things are tracked by charts these days,so you tend to get herd moves in things, without any real fundamental reasons for spikes and falls. Although, the price can easily be manipulated by media stories, the same as stocks are.
There are folks with large holdings, countries too, which kind of takes the gloss of owning them for moi. The Winklevoss twins for example, reportedly owning over 1%.
You mentioned gold.
Gold hasn’t really got any intrinsic value,but has got intrinsic cost, to a degree.
It too has a cost to mine.
Gold, imo, will always have desirability of some sort, but fluctuates like most things.
Although the impact on the price for any individual, will be determined by the currency strength, or weakness,of the buyers currency.
You would expect, after printing all this new money, that inflation should occur in the future.
The stock market often welcomes inflation, money has no conscience . Exhibit 1, poker.👅
In conclusion, not a clue about bitcoin,but the desire is there to push up the price for obv reasons.
Whether that comes via news flow or through fundamental reasons,the jury is out.
I’d expect some countries will promote it, and others will try to ban it, of sorts.
I have a hunch it will just bump along for the foreseeable, one for the traders.
Lost coins only add to the scarcity, so other than it being very bad news for who ever lost them that isn't a big deal. In my opinion the user experience will get better - there are regulated institutions that will take custody of your crypto assets for you - coinbase and crypto.com spring to mind + the first "Crypto Bank" has just been approved in USA.
Kraken Financial is the first digital asset company in U.S. history to receive a bank charter recognized under federal and state law, and will be the first regulated, U.S. bank to provide comprehensive deposit-taking, custody and fiduciary services for digital assets
The Winklevoss twins took a massive early gamble and have been rewarded for their foresight. They own around $1b worth, or approximately 0.5% of the supply. There will always be "whales", who buy in early and make a killing, I don't see that as a reason to be put off. They are doing a lot to legitimise Bitcoin by offering regulated services through they crypto exchange Gemini).
Do you have any feeling about the supply being cut in half effecting the price? Demand doesn't seem to be waning at all, the opposite if anything. Surely that will have an effect?Historically it doesn't happen straight away -for example the last halving was in mid 2016, and the price peak wasn't reached until about 1.5 years later. I think we can expect each cycle to take a little longer each time too as larger markets take more to move.
@Chilling - It will be interesting to see how the currency war between china and USA plays out. Would you not say that a currency not controlled by any one nation would make a better global reserve currency? That is the dream for BTC ofc. To me it makes sense, but I can see why any country will do whatever they can to make their currency the global standard.
I personally store as little wealth as possible in fiat currencies, and dont use the dollar pegged pools. I do use the BTC pool though which is shy I blacked out my balance. (also a curve one, but the underlying assets are pegged to BTC, on the ethereum network)
@kapowblamz - Big ETH fan too. I have about as much of that as BTC, together making up about 50% of my crypto portfolio. The rest is split between many other shitcoins. Interesting that you chose BCH over BTC. I am aware that it offers faster and cheaper transactions. For me there is only one Bitcoin, and will only ever be one Bitcoin. The security of the bitcoin network is far superior, so I don't understand why it would be attractive to store value on a less secure network, especially for a large institution or a country for example. Scarcity cant be copied. Any technology deemed to be superior can easily be adapted by the bitcoin network.
BCH hash power is about 1.5% of bitcoin, making it much more vulnerable to attack. I don't know the technical details but couldn't like one big BTC mining farm simply switch their hash power over to BCH and make the network completely useless by making malicious transactions and confirming them?
Bitcoin does appear to have a lot in its favour at the minute.
With the possibility of negative interest rates, fixed income allocation will likely be looking for a home. Bitcoin might well receive some flow from there.
I think most folks knew the stock markets were overbought , the PE’s were daft.
A big correction is often healthy, but it would be interesting to see if bitcoins chart diverges against the stocks charts.
Bitcoin was obviously pumped and dumped in 2017, so I think less volatility in the price may give it more credibility. Some well known companies have bought in, which might make it more stable.
Retail investors are known to go into tilt mode when they can’t decide between greed or fear.
A lot of folks lost a fortune when bitcoin got dumped 3 years ago.
The supply halving.
Well, it should be a positive, but who knows what is going to happen in the future.
If there were to be a stock market crash, then some might sell bitcoin to raise funds.
I know that goes against your store of value.
I read somewhere that China might stop mining in 2021,and 1M bitcoins might get moved.
I’m not sure who hold those bitcoin, but I see foreclosures have gone up alarmingly in China.
China just kept building and building to hit their 10% GDP over the years, but now a lot of private companies are suffering through the virus and the trade war. That’s another story though.
Russia have a new law that allows bitcoin, but not to be spent in Russia?
I think that bitcoin as an official global currency is not very likely , imo.
There’s about 3billion people earning less than $2.50 per day? So I’d presume their wages and living standard would have to dramatically change, unless bitcoin is just for the wealthy. They would probably need a smart phone too. There are some far flung places as you know.
Bitcoin won’t be going away, so i think there’s every chance it could be higher in the future.
I think it needs to diverge from the stocks charts.
Itsover4u said about the coin they bought into. They all move together, at least the popular ones.
I have traded stocks in the past, it’s uncanny how when the USA markets got hit by say 4%, then surprise surprise, the Nikkei,and the Hang Seng and the Ftse fell almost the same.
I reckon there’s far more bitcoin that are not accessible than is realised, which you rightly state should help the price. I saw there was an Irish chap that lost £47m by writing his codes on a piece of paper, then losing it🤣. Should’ve got himself a hardware wallet😖
I also saw that bitcoin fell 7% after an address that had been dormant for years, started moving 100 bitcoins around. That’s knee jerking in my book, not in for the long haul.
MAN WHO ‘THREW AWAY’ BITCOIN HAUL NOW WORTH OVER $80M WANTS TO DIG UP LANDFILL SITE
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/bitcoin-value-james-howells-newport-landfill-hard-drive-campbell-simpson-laszlo-hanyecz-a8091371.html
I do wonder how they plan on monetising these patents, when the organisations that may end up using them are decentralised, and impossible to shut down. What jurisdiction will enforce it, and how?
I'm not aware of these patents hindering any of the crypto projects out there atm either - Innovation is exploding at such a pace its almost impossible to keep up with it.
My personal favourite example is AAVE/LEND. Well worth a look.
Aave (from the Finnish word for "ghost") is an open source non-custodial protocol on Ethereum for decentralized lending and borrowing. For lenders, the protocol mints ERC20-compliant aTokens at a 1:1 ratio to supplied assets. Interest immediately starts compounding continuously, represented by a steady increase in the amount of aTokens held by the lender. This interest stream may be redirected to any address, separate from the aTokens that represent the underlying principal.
Users can borrow against most supplied assets; the collateralization ratio and liquidation threshold depends on the asset, as does the liquidation penalty, which anyone can get as a bonus for liquidating an unhealthy loan. Interest rates adjust algorithmically based on supply and demand, but Aave lets borrowers opt in to and out of (at any time) a stable rate that changes less often. The protocol keeps a liquidity reserve to ensure withdrawal at any time.
Aave offers flash loans: trustless, uncollateralized loans where borrowing and repayment must occur in the same transaction. Aimed at developers, this feature could lead to innovative uses of DeFi. Aave's native governance token is LEND; the only fees are 0.25% of originated loans and 0.09% of flash loans; these go toward burning LEND, rewarding lenders, and compensating affiliates.
Source: defipulse.com
Flash loans are particularly interesting/ novel.
Stuff like AAVE opens up new business models: for example you could pay for a subscription by locking up your asset, and redirecting the interest stream to netflix. A lossless lottery like this already exists.
They are also working on decentralised mortgages, by partnering with realT, a real estate tokenisation firm.
regarding the lost bitcoins - is this an important factor for you? I dont place much weight on it because there are already custodial services that make the whole experience a lot more grandma friendly, although there is still some way to go. That is to be expected with a new technology though?
@kapowblamz I read up on Calvin Ayre. He has switched his support to Bitcoin SV now -another Bitcoin fork, run by a known fraudster Craig Wright. Craig has repeatedly claimed to be Satoshi Nakomoto, providing provably fraudulent evidence on every occasion when simply moving any of the genesis bitcoin would prove his case. I'd be very careful following anything he says. Your on to a winner with ETH though in my opinion. All of the decentralised finance stuff is being built on top of it, and they have more credible connections to the business world than any other project: Accenture, a number of banks including large American ones, Ernst & Young, Intel, Microsoft are all members of the Ethereum Enterprise Alliance https://entethalliance.org/eea-members/
Anyway, I’ve a few posers and opinions and stuff, not all my opinions obv,as you’ll see.
There’s no end of info on bitcoin online and other coins,seems similar to when I followed the markets closely a while back. Asking the same questions as before,and I notice if you google bitcoin, all the scams pop up first.
Firstly, and you don’t obv have to reply to this question as it’s rather personal.
Im wondering how you invest/buy your crypto.
You imply you’re drip feeding into crypto.
Is that because you’re in for the long haul and you’re not bothered what price you buy at?
There are so many so called “ experts” out there, regarding chart reading etc,that could possibly indicate that you could pick up bitcoin at lower prices. Holding on to cash, waiting for a desired price to buy is not being considered?
If something is volatile in price, then there are likely lots of opportunities to jump in and out, still keeping your same goal.Im not referring to day trading,just looking for more opportunities.
I think crypto needs to decouple from the stocks charts,which hasn’t happened up to now.
Different countries are treating bitcoin in different ways, which doesn’t bode well for it to be a dominant world wide currency.
In China, where they have the highest hash rate, the PBoC regard bitcoin as a “ special virtual commodity “. They are also working on introducing a digital currency of the Yuan, although it won’t be on the blockchain.
A while back, maybe more than a year ago, there were a few countries that were fed up with the dollar being the reserve currency. Is the dollar under attack?
If I owned bitcoin, I would have the liquidity in the back of my mind, regarding how many are in circulation. Whales and big institutions often shake out the retail investors.
The retail investors being the ones that ramp up the price, more often than not.
There seems to be a strange way of calculating transactions too. That’s at the bottom.
Micro strategy had a lot of cash on their sheet, returned some to share holders,and have taken a punt on bitcoin as a store of value. It always bothers me when big holders get in,mainly due to potential manipulation of the price. They can also get into bed with other big institutions, and then play the price on ETF’s or Futures etc. They have no scruples😲.
As it looks bleak for fixed income for the foreseeable, i don’t think there’s much out there to go for.
Although if the stocks crashed, there’s money to be made on the downside as usual, then what normally happens,is a rebuild. It will be interesting to see how that all plays out.
There was thought that crypto had no exposure to the stock market, but owning Microstrategy’s stock,and others, does give shareholders indirect exposure to crypto. That might not be a good thing.
Bitcoin isn’t blockchain, obv, so I’m wondering if it’s like the Californian gold rush.
The ones that made the big money, were the stores and suppliers.
In this case, it will be the exchanges etc.
Stock to flow forecasts are historic. A wise man once said, history is no guide to the future.
That stock to flow forecast will be something that will be proven correct or wrong, time will tell.
I’m wondering why the governments, treasuries, around the world, don’t subsidise ,or even have departments that mine bitcoin for free, to a point, if it has the same or more value than gold.
Would that not make sense, especially if you hold bullion, and are bothered about future inflation.
I still have an open mind on it,it could pop, or crash.
Im wondering how you invest/buy your crypto.
You imply you’re drip feeding into crypto.
pretty much correct, although my plan is to stop buying in once bitcoin reaches is ATH of around $20k. I treat anything under $10k as a bargain and buy as much as I can. S2F remains to be proven as you say, I agree, but that is roughly what I work on. My plan is to start selling at $50k+, with most of it being at $100k+. I realise this may never happen, but feel it is a realistic expectation at the same time.
Bitcoin has the better qualities of money than any other asset in history, and that is what I base my assumptions on. Durability gets resolved the longer bitcoin is a thing, although it still has some way to go to rival gold. Time Bitcoin survives for is the main factor though, and as it ages, it becomes less and less vulnerable in that respect. Throughout human history, the "money" with the best "attributes of money" has ALWAYS won. For example, Gold won as a store of value because there is nothing else that is as scarce, fungible and durable. Silver is second best, because it is less scarce. Diamonds dot work because they aren't fungible (one diamond can be of better quality than another) or divisible -wheat doesnt work because it isn't durable. Bitcoin beats everything else, even Gold, especially the more established it becomes.
It is not set in stone that bitcoin would survive a collapse of the dollar for example, which is its whole point. Bitcoin is entering into its defining era right now. It eventually does need to decouple from stock markets, but I think that might take longer than some people hope. After all it is only 12 years old, but has already achieved what gold took 100's of years to do in terms of establishing itself as a store of value. All it has to do is survive for another 10 or so years and it has pretty much established itself as a thing that will never go away. (how old is the internet, and how long did that take to be a thing that will never go away)
You talk about manipulation. Perhaps the biggest manipulation of all is the supply shock of halving the supply every four years. Bitcoin enthusiasts talk about this being a game theory play to enhance adoption. The creator was big on game theory and and applied his knowledge to bitcoin.
If there are massive cycles of price increase, and decrease, it will attract retail investors at the same time as ruling out institutional investors, since they want a stable store of value. Can you think of any reason that the difficulty adjustment (how much processing power required to produce the next block) is adjusted every 2 weeks, but the supply is only adjusted every 4 years? The supply shock is intended in my opinion, and the more i think about it the more genius is seems as a method of redistributing wealth - institutions are only become more interested as it becomes more stable
Smoked the lot
My issues with Bitcoin come from its lack of integrity/transparency, tangibility and practical usage in the real world. There are two types of BTC advocates, speculators and ideologists. I find it hard to get into an investment debate with either types because as soon as you say something negative about BTC they switch off it doesn't matter if you come across with the most compelling arguments.
I follow Tom Lee on CNBC, he was a massive Bitcoin advocate a few years back making some insane price predictions, none of which came true. Now he tends to commentate on mainstream stocks and boy does he know his beans, he has hit the nail firmly on the head with pretty every stock market prediction since the March lows.
Mike Novogratz another respected Hedge Fund manager in the US, also said crypto shouldn't be more than 5% of your overall investable assets. Then you can invest until your hearts content in the knowledge that you wont lose your shirt.
The price of bitcoin isn't led by retail investors anymore, it's the institutions who have been trading futures on the CME for a few years now. Retail investors pretty much the same ones who were speculating on BTC are now focused on tech stocks, through trading apps such as 212 and Robinhood and creating the same bubbles as they did in 2017 with BTC. Greed and Fear is endemic in human nature as was so famously pointed out by Warren Buffet many years ago.
Its practical usage in the real world is to circumvent censorship, as a hedge against in your currency, as a trustless store of value then eventually as trustless medium of exchange. All of these things seem pretty important to me. They aren't so important in a country run fairly, but are of utmost important if you are a citizen in a country that isn't or whose currency has problems.
Did you know that Bitcion is currently at, or near its all time high in multiple currencies? Did you know that virtually every government currency that has ever existed has collapsed and ended up being worthless?
Mainstream media certainly got caught up in the mania of 2017. They recommended buying all sorts of cryptos at all time highs, but didn't mention any of them before they were at their peaks.
Its interesting that you mention Tom Lee and Mike Novogratz - both are massive fans of bitcoin, still. Tom Lee said this about bitcoin, earlier this year,
Mike Novogratz said this, this year:
If everyone had 5% of their portfolio in crypto/bitcoin, the market would be hundreds of times the size it is today.