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Lockdown 2 is it inevitable?

pompeynicpompeynic Member Posts: 1,622
I do not envy the government at this moment in time. I think whichever party was in power, it would not matter. This is the classic juxtaposition.
Everything seems to point to the need to have a four to six week national lockdown. This would seem particularly so, if , you want to be able to have anything remotely resembling a Family Christmas. Protecting the NHS , the mantra of lockdown, has yet to really be mentioned, but with cases rising and multiplying alarmingly, how soon before the pressure begins to tell.
On the other hand you have business screaming “please don’t do it” . The economic ramifications of another lockdown are horrific. Ever increasing job losses, the government having to borrow more and more money to bail out industry and the population. At some point down the road all of that money will need to be repaid, If you thought the last stretch of austerity was bad. I suppose if your stables catch fire with your horses in them, you don’t worry about using their drinking water to put the fire out, the water problem is for tomorrow.
As I said , I do not envy the government at all, damned if they do , damned if they don’t.

Comments

  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 83,408

    It's a horribly difficult & complex decision, but I think we have to have another short sharp lockdown. Not doing so delays the inevitable, & things can only get worse if no action is taken.
  • goldongoldon Member Posts: 4,932
    Should we let Him in.....

  • madprofmadprof Member Posts: 2,992
    pompeynic said:

    I do not envy the government at this moment in time. I think whichever party was in power, it would not matter. This is the classic juxtaposition.
    Everything seems to point to the need to have a four to six week national lockdown. This would seem particularly so, if , you want to be able to have anything remotely resembling a Family Christmas. Protecting the NHS , the mantra of lockdown, has yet to really be mentioned, but with cases rising and multiplying alarmingly, how soon before the pressure begins to tell.
    On the other hand you have business screaming “please don’t do it” . The economic ramifications of another lockdown are horrific. Ever increasing job losses, the government having to borrow more and more money to bail out industry and the population. At some point down the road all of that money will need to be repaid, If you thought the last stretch of austerity was bad. I suppose if your stables catch fire with your horses in them, you don’t worry about using their drinking water to put the fire out, the water problem is for tomorrow.
    As I said , I do not envy the government at all, damned if they do , damned if they don’t.

    I agree, however I do think the slightly 'nationalistic' approach taken by this govt has been a factor

    Our track n trace will be world beating....yet we were offered South korea's model which ws effective and free

    Moon shot, wacamole, blah blah blah...

    I heard a great quote which I have shared before, I paraphrase

    " You can't resurrect the dead, but you can resurrect an economy...."

    Even in the South West, where cases are limited, Covid hits ' home'!

    @MISTY4ME Take care Jez and we hope you get over it soon!
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 12,626
    I dont follow this very closely these days, as I think you can have enough of it.
    Although some aspects are very clear.
    The government maintained that they were following the science as an excuse for imposing unpopular measures, that was until they stopped following the science in September, and ignored the SAGE advice.
    The local lockdowns didnt work, as infection rates increased dramatically.
    The three tier system doesnt seem to be working for the same reason.
    If it was working you would expect to see areas moving to the tier below, rather than to the tier above.
    Yet we only seem to be seeing areas moving up a level.
    I think Boris has over done the optimism, forecasting stuff that has not been achieved.
    You can understand a bit of optimism, as nobody would want to listen to him if he was full of doom and gloom, but I think he has overdone it.
    The test and trace has been a disaster.
    They are getting worse on test results and contact tracing.
    The last figures I saw were only 15% of test results within 24 hours, and only 59% of the contacts of those that tested positive were traced.
    These figures are shocking and contribute greatly to the increase in infections.
    If you allow those that have tested positive to behave normally while infecting others, and then only track down just over half their contacts, what should we expect.
    I am not going to go into their preference for sound bites rather than clear messaging.
    It would seem to me that a series of national lockdowns are on the cards, as a means to catch up as we always seem to be behind.
    I also think that have stupidly not punished the politicians, their families, and prominent people for their rule breaking, which has caused resentment among the general public, resulting in less of them being prepared to stick to the rules.

    What seems obvious to me is that they should lockdown the old, and vulnerable, and get the economy back as close to normal as they are able, while observing the social distancing, and protection measures, in addition to sorting out the test and trace.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 12,626
    HAYSIE said:

    I dont follow this very closely these days, as I think you can have enough of it.
    Although some aspects are very clear.
    The government maintained that they were following the science as an excuse for imposing unpopular measures, that was until they stopped following the science in September, and ignored the SAGE advice.
    The local lockdowns didnt work, as infection rates increased dramatically.
    The three tier system doesnt seem to be working for the same reason.
    If it was working you would expect to see areas moving to the tier below, rather than to the tier above.
    Yet we only seem to be seeing areas moving up a level.
    I think Boris has over done the optimism, forecasting stuff that has not been achieved.
    You can understand a bit of optimism, as nobody would want to listen to him if he was full of doom and gloom, but I think he has overdone it.
    The test and trace has been a disaster.
    They are getting worse on test results and contact tracing.
    The last figures I saw were only 15% of test results within 24 hours, and only 59% of the contacts of those that tested positive were traced.
    These figures are shocking and contribute greatly to the increase in infections.
    If you allow those that have tested positive to behave normally while infecting others, and then only track down just over half their contacts, what should we expect.
    I am not going to go into their preference for sound bites rather than clear messaging.
    It would seem to me that a series of national lockdowns are on the cards, as a means to catch up as we always seem to be behind.
    I also think that have stupidly not punished the politicians, their families, and prominent people for their rule breaking, which has caused resentment among the general public, resulting in less of them being prepared to stick to the rules.

    What seems obvious to me is that they should lockdown the old, and vulnerable, and get the economy back as close to normal as they are able, while observing the social distancing, and protection measures, in addition to sorting out the test and trace.

    Leeds and West Yorkshire go into Tier 3: Ten million people under the strictest Covid restrictions as another 16 authorities join Tier 2 and UK creeps toward full lockdown - with 23,065 cases and 280 deaths today, 40 per cent up in a week



    Six million more people in England are poised to be stung by Tier Three lockdown restrictions this week amid spiralling coronavirus cases, as Number 10 sticks to its 'whack-a-mole' strategy.






    London 'to go into Tier 3 lockdown in two weeks' as Britain faces a super-spreader Christmas: Advisers forecast a 'very, very bleak' winter - and propose national shutdown either side of 25 December to let families reunite



    London could be plunged into Tier 3 lockdown within two weeks as England creeped closer towards full national lockdown by the back door last night, with millions told they will face extra curbs. Boris Johnson is facing renewed pressure from his medical officers to impose a nation-wide shutdown before and after Christmas in a bid to allow families to gather over the holidays, and sources close so Sadiq Khan expect the capital to be locked down imminently. Senior figures are warning that the UK's three-tier system is not enough to 'get on top of the numbers', with deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam reportedly beginning to change his mind over whether regional lockdowns will suppress the virus . He backed the move at a No 10 press conference last week There are fears that the whole country will be at Tier 3 by Christmas, and unable to meet extended family members unless the Government takes harsh, draconian action before the season. Allowing people to visit family at Christmas will be a spreader event that could cause a spike in infections many times worse than that caused by the return of university students, experts believe. But introducing national restrictions before and after Christmas, while lifting them for the big day could help minimise the impact.

    How UK is already OUT-PACING SAGE's 'worst case scenario' projections of 85,000 Covid-19 deaths in second wave - with infections, fatalities and hospital admissions all higher than top scientists feared



    In a newly-published leaked paper, circulated over summer, SAGE warned that daily Covid-19 deaths would rise to 100 a day by the end of October. The UK is already seeing twice as many.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 12,626
    pompeynic said:

    I do not envy the government at this moment in time. I think whichever party was in power, it would not matter. This is the classic juxtaposition.
    Everything seems to point to the need to have a four to six week national lockdown. This would seem particularly so, if , you want to be able to have anything remotely resembling a Family Christmas. Protecting the NHS , the mantra of lockdown, has yet to really be mentioned, but with cases rising and multiplying alarmingly, how soon before the pressure begins to tell.
    On the other hand you have business screaming “please don’t do it” . The economic ramifications of another lockdown are horrific. Ever increasing job losses, the government having to borrow more and more money to bail out industry and the population. At some point down the road all of that money will need to be repaid, If you thought the last stretch of austerity was bad. I suppose if your stables catch fire with your horses in them, you don’t worry about using their drinking water to put the fire out, the water problem is for tomorrow.
    As I said , I do not envy the government at all, damned if they do , damned if they don’t.







  • lucy4lucy4 Member Posts: 2,940
    edited November 1
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 12,626
  • dragon1964dragon1964 Member Posts: 1,735
    The North: "People can't survive on 67% of wages when furloughed. Can we have 80% ?"
    Tory Government: "No, we can't afford it".

    The South: "Oh no, how will we cope on 67% ?"
    Tory Government: "Now it affects you, we will make it 80%."
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 12,626

    The North: "People can't survive on 67% of wages when furloughed. Can we have 80% ?"
    Tory Government: "No, we can't afford it".

    The South: "Oh no, how will we cope on 67% ?"
    Tory Government: "Now it affects you, we will make it 80%."

    Its not a good look.
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