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Thoughts on this please?

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  • mcglynn07mcglynn07 Member Posts: 162
    edited March 2021
    Davey if it helps you watch this hand on Youtube Doug Polk vs Martin Jacobson there are nine players left its a $100,000 buy in but it shows you what the best are willing to do. In this hand Doug only has two draws nut flush draw and straight draw and he knows he is behind and not winning at the minute but with what he thinks his opponent has (range + actual hand) combined with his equity in the hand and the chance of winning his opponents whole stack & a really big stack that could do really well at this final table. He decides that it is worth risking it all . Factored in to this is also what his opponent think Doug has compared to Martins hand. Doug has mainly all the sets, all the two pairs, and more straights as well.

    He goes on to win the final table for big bucks but it is really relevant to the hand you played and how you should be thinking about the game.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWo44QcMXm0
    Why we take risks in poker.

    Regards
    Danny
  • mcglynn07mcglynn07 Member Posts: 162
    Craigcu12,

    Thanks for the advice. I know it will definitely give me better understanding of the common situations that we face over and over again.

    With what you wrote below is 7 the Turn or do we have a 7 clubs or pocket 77 on T65 Board ?

    I used it to look at a COvsBTN range on board T65 7cc and I was shocked to see that 7 is nowhere near as nasty as it looked in game.

    Good luck Craig
  • craigcu12craigcu12 Member Posts: 3,961
    mcglynn07 said:

    Craigcu12,

    Thanks for the advice. I know it will definitely give me better understanding of the common situations that we face over and over again.

    With what you wrote below is 7 the Turn or do we have a 7 clubs or pocket 77 on T65 Board ?

    I used it to look at a COvsBTN range on board T65 7cc and I was shocked to see that 7 is nowhere near as nasty as it looked in game.

    Good luck Craig

    that 7 came on turn bring a flush draw



    This was the hand.
    I made a poor check on turn for sure, it would be ok in deepstack poker but with a more shallow stack I should have just bet, I most certainly have not avoided losing chips to bet better hands but I have lost out on more value from any Tx, 99 88 6x 5x and flush draws he would have checked on turn.

    Then on river I am in really bad shape again knowing I am against a really strong value range and very few bluffs.

    Some would say "but you bluff catching" well not really because I am blocking bluffing combos like Q high flush draws, QJ Q9 Q8 KQ but I do not block any value.

    This is another great feature about flopzilla, in the dead cards you can choose the two cards which are in your hand and will be able to see which combo are best bluff catchers and which are not.
    I'd say myself 96 and 86 are best, they might block a couple of bluffs but they block far more strong value and whilst Tx and 7x does beat 96 and 86 not many of them should bet the turn and especially not on river because they are gonna extract value from just a couple better hands.
  • mcglynn07mcglynn07 Member Posts: 162
    Craig on this hand I note you focus on the hands that you can still get value from as this will help you in future hands when you are trying to extract chips. If you played this hand today with same setup and position are you still going broke in this hand.? I am not trying to play results here but there is a podcast I listen to with Alex Fitzgerald who is a coach and he says the one biggest mistake I see players making in tournaments is going broke out of position with one pair.
    Are you worried about his range that consists of suited aces here mainly A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 A9 AT when we get to the river.. I know your gut tells you that we are in bad shape here but would you do anything different today when looking at other parts of his range or am I just looking at this in the wrong way?
    Cheers for the talk Craig
    Danny
  • craigcu12craigcu12 Member Posts: 3,961
    edited March 2021
    mcglynn07 said:

    Craig on this hand I note you focus on the hands that you can still get value from as this will help you in future hands when you are trying to extract chips. If you played this hand today with same setup and position are you still going broke in this hand.? I am not trying to play results here but there is a podcast I listen to with Alex Fitzgerald who is a coach and he says the one biggest mistake I see players making in tournaments is going broke out of position with one pair.
    Are you worried about his range that consists of suited aces here mainly A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 A9 AT when we get to the river.. I know your gut tells you that we are in bad shape here but would you do anything different today when looking at other parts of his range or am I just looking at this in the wrong way?
    Cheers for the talk Craig
    Danny


    Their's a good chance I will never play this hand like this again, not in this position because I myself know this QQ is a decent hand and wants to get more money in but the way to do that is betting extracting lots of chips from his weak value hands, If I was to X turn it would be QQ without a club and the plan then is X/RAI. Because the stack sizes are so shallow my QQ should be getting AI most times when you consider how wide ranges are.

    Alex is true in what he says about players wrongly going bust with TP OOP in MTTs, the mistake people are making is they treat every TP the same way yet some TPs will have far more equity than others, Another mistake people make is they are checking in spots they shouldn't and when IP bets they then think oh I've got TP I'll call. Finally they do not understand stacksizes, value of chips won and how that effects the value of TP.


    Take this board for example, If my opponent were to raise some of his strength on flop and turn then my QQ could go for a thin triple barrell shove AI because my opponent will have to call some Tx 99 88 and/or 7x otherwise he is gonna over fold allowing me to triple barrell bluff any two cards. If he didn't raise and decided to trap me then I would X river and if he bets I should call but the chances are I'd X/F knowing he will not find the bluffs since they are gonna be his weakest pairs.
    If we changes the positions and made it EP vs EP1, then I would be taking far more care with my value betting and when it gets to the river I am highly likely to X/F because when you look at EPvs EP1 ranges, EP1 has got a number of strength but does not have much weaker combos and a lot of the weaker combos he does have can now fold.
    In simple terms the value of TP is much better in spots like COvsBTN, BTN and BTN vsBB and SBvsBB because these are spots where ranges are really wide and if people do not defend their own TP and strongest 2nd pair combos then they gonna be over folding for sure.

    This does not mean we should go bust with TP in every spot where ranges are wide or avoid going bust in every spot where ranges are narrow why?
    Because your stacksize and stack:pot ratio also plays it's part.

    Take for instance a 3bet pot where you were 100BB deep pre, ranges are gonna be super narrow in this spot yet you should expect to be going bust with your strongest TP on many occassions why?
    Because the 3bet you did preflop has already made a smaller P:S ratio and unless players were to play super passive the P:Rshould normally super small by river and again players need to defend strongest TPs otherwise they gonna over fold.
    In a SRP where you were 100BB deep the opposite is true you are now not even happy going broke with TP in BTN vs BB if you do go broke with TP it's gonna be the one that has the best blockers and opponents range lacks nutted value and has enough worse.

    The point I make about players X too many TP in the wrong spots, they probably treat every TP the same but as I said before they not. They do not realize the equity of value betting TP on good rivers is far higher than checking because you are most certainly gonna get max value from worse, whereas a check allows your opponent to control the pot and if he knows you gonna X TP ten he will do less bluffs, instead he will start doing over bets on river with his best hands knowing you have got to call.

    A good example of this is when rivers bring a flush and say you have AK TP with the suited card blocking nut flush, Most people will check but their are a number of spots where you should bet why?
    Because you have got a card blocking the flushes, If and when you get raised calling and folding isn't that hard because you have got the perfect blocker to his value hands therefore if he was to have the right Bluff:value ratio you should be able to cry call, if he doesn't bluff then you can cry fold.

    When people decide to check strong TP on river things will turn ugly because your opponent will do less bluffing he will check back his weaker value hands, making huge huge over bets with his strength and then you will have to call him off otherwise you are gonna over fold.

    It is a really complicated process,

    No TP combo has the same equity
    TP has got more value against a wide range than a shallow range
    The lower the S:P ratios, the more you should expect to go bust with TP.
    value betting strongest TP on river OOP has a much great Ev than X/C unless the board hit's your opponent really well because you will certainly obtain max value from the weaker combos unless opponent folds whereas if you were to X every strong TP on every river your opponent would slow right down and X back his weaker value and over bet his strongest combos and you would have to call your strongest TP otherwise you gonna over fold


    Don't get me wrong you do see the best players check with their TP OOP but what you might not realize they wanting to X/R this combo, their TP is blocking so many calls, opponents range is so nut heavy or they using the odd TP+ in their checking range to protect their weaker value and not become capped.
  • mcglynn07mcglynn07 Member Posts: 162
    This is some answer Craig and I am gonna have to have a proper read tomorrow and digest this. There is so much detail here and you have put so much effort in answering this which I really appreciate fella. You have really delved deep down into this game.
    Cheers Craig
    Danny
  • craigcu12craigcu12 Member Posts: 3,961
    edited March 2021
    Always happy to help

    Speaking of mistakes and going bust with TP, I myself did a bad job with this hand when it was TP
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    xSmall blind4000.004000.00256031.00
    craigcu12Big blind8000.0012000.00309063.00
    Your hole cards
    • J
    • A
    destinycodFold
    M10DembeleFold
    CoxyMateRaise20000.0032000.00236031.00
    craigcu12Call16000.0048000.00293063.00
    Flop
    • 5
    • A
    • 9
    xBet16250.0064250.00219781.00
    craigcu12Call16250.0080500.00276813.00
    Turn
    • 5
    xBet27500.00108000.00192281.00
    craigcu12Call27500.00135500.00249313.00
    River
    • J
    xCheck
    craigcu12All-in249313.00384813.000.00
    xAll-in192281.00577094.000.00
    craigcu12Unmatched bet57032.00520062.0057032.00
    xShow
    • 6
    • K
    craigcu12Show
    • J
    • A
    xWinFlush to the Ace520062.00520062.00
    How?

    well it might sound results orientating but I screwed up with this by playing my hand when TP too passively not raising him.
    By just calling flop and calling turn I myself had very little idea of the equity of my hand, My opponent on the other hand is getting a really good idea of his equity. the real nasty part is when it reaches a blank river and my opponent shoves what do I do then if the answer is fold well I myself will be folding tons of TP combos and as a result I'm allowing my opponent to bluff wide, so I should call true but again it's gonna be really sick because I am not expecting many worse TPs to bet just bluffs.

    If we assume I raised flop bet turn or call flop and raise turn does my TP lose much value to stronger combos not really do I expect many worse calls not really well why raise?
    The reason to raise flop or turn is I can now get to realize the equity of my hand really well and when it comes to raising ranges this hand will go from being at the top of my range to being at the lower end of my range therefore if and when I was to get reraised AI I can now look at my range and will know their are plenty better combos I can defend in this range therefore something like this could be tossed into the bin.
    Does thin mean raising every TP no way, If I had AJ with club or spade the chances are I just call because this is gonna start blocking the hands I want to call a raise instead it will unblock the folds, would I raise At? probably not because his weaker Ax calling range is now super low yet he will have plenty of stronger combos, the only time I would likely raise weak TPs is if my opponent had a wide range and was cbetting that range 100%.
  • mcglynn07mcglynn07 Member Posts: 162
    Craig how did you do last night fella. I see you in the FT of the £33 pound Bounty and you had all the chips and then you where in the Sunday Major as well. I had to go to bed I hope you had some good results. I see TT vs QQ for all the marbles and then you had Aces vs KIngs and looked like you where enjoying yourself on Twitch.
    I am going to look at these hands you speak about first and then look at some of my own hands to learn from. I hope you have a great week fella and I speak to you soon.
    Danny
  • craigcu12craigcu12 Member Posts: 3,961
    mcglynn07 said:

    Craig how did you do last night fella. I see you in the FT of the £33 pound Bounty and you had all the chips and then you where in the Sunday Major as well. I had to go to bed I hope you had some good results. I see TT vs QQ for all the marbles and then you had Aces vs KIngs and looked like you where enjoying yourself on Twitch.
    I am going to look at these hands you speak about first and then look at some of my own hands to learn from. I hope you have a great week fella and I speak to you soon.
    Danny

    When it reached the final table I took things too far, I was just smashing buttons with my bets and burned my chips. I did have two really big losses but something tells me with some though I would have avoided losing so much.
  • mcglynn07mcglynn07 Member Posts: 162
    edited March 2021
    I see this hand Craig and I see you keep calling and by the river you get the check mark . So what are you hoping to get value from here. What hands are going to pay you if its time for value?
    I don't think this is a capped range like what you have here and it feels like you are trying to rep the nuts here with either AA, A5, 99 or KQ spade KJ Spades KT spades.
    So how am I looking at this hand?

    Preflop
    Villain
    R to 20k 2.5x pot 48000
    Villain
    AA-22 AK-A2 KQ-K2 QJ-Q2 JT-J2
    T9-T7 98-96 87-85 76-74 65-63
    54-53 43-42 32 We Call we Have AhJd

    Flop Range

    Flop As 5s 9c We have AhJd
    Villain
    Monsters - AA 99

    Strong hands & pairs - A5 A9 AK AQ AJ KK-TT 79 9T J9 Q9

    Draws & AIr - KsQs KsJs KsTs 3s4s 2s3s 34 24 64 67 78 54 56 57


    Pot 48000 He bets 16250 we call pot 80500

    As 5s 9c 5c
    Turn Range
    We have AhJd

    Villain
    Monsters - AA 99 A5

    Strong hands & pairs - AK AQ AJ KK-TT 79 9T J9 Q9 54 56 57

    Draws & Air - KsQs KsJs KsTs 3s4s 2s3s 34 24 64 67 78 6s4s 6s7s 7s8s


    Pot 80500 He bets 27500 we call pot 135500

    As 5s 9c 5c Js
    River Range
    We have AhJd

    Villain
    Monsters - AA, 99, A5 KsQs KsTs Flushes

    Strong hands & pairs - AK AQ AJ KK-TT 79 T9

    Draws & Air - 34 24 64 67 78

    Pot is 135000

    So with the runout we have we can only really get value here from AK AQ KK-TT. and a 9
    Now we could have a flush that calls all the way that we now bet but why all in? If we take the call call call line then we are looking to extract value from worse flushes so we would not be taking the 1.8x pot on the river and we would not be doing this with 2s3s or 6s7s.
    I don't see you having any fives here at all that does not bet or CR Turn when it is your last time to extract value.
    So with AA you would raise flop or check raise some of the time and call same with A5 for balance. Now come river you would want to be targeting Flushes with your houses.
    This line looks really good if you do have a house that slowed it as it max exploitative poker and next level in a way.
    Its good that you can learn from this play and be better for the next time you go into battle.
    For me this is the same as going out of a tourny with top pair out of position. Alex is right cos it keeps happening to me as well Craig lol.
    Good luck Craig and see you on the felt at some point or on the Twitch.
    Best regards
    Danny
  • craigcu12craigcu12 Member Posts: 3,961
    mcglynn07 said:

    I see this hand Craig and I see you keep calling and by the river you get the check mark . So what are you hoping to get value from here. What hands are going to pay you if its time for value?
    I don't think this is a capped range like what you have here and it feels like you are trying to rep the nuts here with either AA, A5, 99 or KQ spade KJ Spades KT spades.
    So how am I looking at this hand?

    Preflop
    Villain
    R to 20k 2.5x pot 48000
    Villain
    AA-22 AK-A2 KQ-K2 QJ-Q2 JT-J2
    T9-T7 98-96 87-85 76-74 65-63
    54-53 43-42 32 We Call we Have AhJd

    Flop Range

    Flop As 5s 9c We have AhJd
    Villain
    Monsters - AA 99

    Strong hands & pairs - A5 A9 AK AQ AJ KK-TT 79 9T J9 Q9

    Draws & AIr - KsQs KsJs KsTs 3s4s 2s3s 34 24 64 67 78 54 56 57


    Pot 48000 He bets 16250 we call pot 80500

    As 5s 9c 5c
    Turn Range
    We have AhJd

    Villain
    Monsters - AA 99 A5

    Strong hands & pairs - AK AQ AJ KK-TT 79 9T J9 Q9 54 56 57

    Draws & Air - KsQs KsJs KsTs 3s4s 2s3s 34 24 64 67 78 6s4s 6s7s 7s8s


    Pot 80500 He bets 27500 we call pot 135500

    As 5s 9c 5c Js
    River Range
    We have AhJd

    Villain
    Monsters - AA, 99, A5 KsQs KsTs Flushes

    Strong hands & pairs - AK AQ AJ KK-TT 79 T9

    Draws & Air - 34 24 64 67 78

    Pot is 135000

    So with the runout we have we can only really get value here from AK AQ KK-TT. and a 9
    Now we could have a flush that calls all the way that we now bet but why all in? If we take the call call call line then we are looking to extract value from worse flushes so we would not be taking the 1.8x pot on the river and we would not be doing this with 2s3s or 6s7s.
    I don't see you having any fives here at all that does not bet or CR Turn when it is your last time to extract value.
    So with AA you would raise flop or check raise some of the time and call same with A5 for balance. Now come river you would want to be targeting Flushes with your houses.
    This line looks really good if you do have a house that slowed it as it max exploitative poker and next level in a way.
    Its good that you can learn from this play and be better for the next time you go into battle.
    For me this is the same as going out of a tourny with top pair out of position. Alex is right cos it keeps happening to me as well Craig lol.
    Good luck Craig and see you on the felt at some point or on the Twitch.
    Best regards
    Danny


    What I should have did in this spot was raise my combo on flop or turn then evaluate whether or not to shove river.

    The idea is he will be cbetting flop super wide way more than he should so my AJ TP is really strong What I do by raising flop or turn is I deny all his backdoor flush draws, total air and weak Ax from getting to see a free river card, If I face a raise or river donk in these spots I will evaluate my range and know from their AJ is at the bottom of my range
    therefore I could fold it.

    As played I should be going broke on river and by betting super small my opponent should have an extremely wide range on flop and turn. He should then be betting a wide range of value and some bluffs because my range will have lots of Ax and 9x it also should not have many 5x if my opponent is gonna bet flop bet turn then X river then I can call down every bit of value easily.

    It is a really complicated process if you don't have a solver I suggest you get one because you will be shocked to see what combos we should be calling against these cbets on flop and turn.
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