Thoughts on this please?

daveydavey

£1500 mega stack bounty.

I don't know if this is terrible or a good fold.

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
daveydavey	Small blind		20.00	20.00	10085.00
barfoot12	Big blind		40.00	60.00	5633.12
	Your hole cards	Q A
skyflyer	Fold
ozzieowen	Raise		120.00	180.00	10948.76
ForeSight	Fold
DUTCHESS62	Fold
daveydavey	Call		100.00	280.00	9985.00
barfoot12	Raise		160.00	440.00	5473.12
ozzieowen	Call		80.00	520.00	10868.76
daveydavey	Call		80.00	600.00	9905.00
Flop
		K 4 10
daveydavey	Check
barfoot12	All-in		5473.12	6073.12	0.00
ozzieowen	All-in		10868.76	16941.88	0.00
daveydavey	Fold
ozzieowen	Unmatched bet		5395.64	11546.24	5395.64
barfoot12	Show	A K
ozzieowen	Show	9 K
Turn
		Q
River
		J
ozzieowen	Win	Flush to the King	11546.24		16941.88

daveydavey

@Tikay10 Haven't posted much on the forums, but see this post has been moved from poker clinic for hand analysis to poker chat. I thought i'd put it in the right place?

I exited on a hand I 100% played terribly shortly after, but still appreciate any thoughts on this.

CraigSG1

A sigh fold for me. Too early and better spots to be had.

daveydavey

CraigSG1 said:

A sigh fold for me. Too early and better spots to be had.

Thank you.

That's what I did My thoughts on fold were, there's a good chance someone has two clubs, but it's very unlikely both players have clubs, so my flush draw odds are lower and I definitely need a club.

But the fact a jack was a win too, and possibly an ace (albeit not in this case) makes me think it was maybe a sigh call.

Tikay10

daveydavey said:

@Tikay10 Haven't posted much on the forums, but see this post has been moved from poker clinic for hand analysis to poker chat. I thought i'd put it in the right place?

I exited on a hand I 100% played terribly shortly after, but still appreciate any thoughts on this.

@daveydavey

Hi bud,

You posted it in exactly the right place, but there's very little traffic on that board, so I moved it to Poker Chat where more people will see it, &, I hope, reply.

daveydavey

Tikay10 said:

daveydavey said:

@Tikay10 Haven't posted much on the forums, but see this post has been moved from poker clinic for hand analysis to poker chat. I thought i'd put it in the right place?

I exited on a hand I 100% played terribly shortly after, but still appreciate any thoughts on this.

@daveydavey

Hi bud,

You posted it in exactly the right place, but there's very little traffic on that board, so I moved it to Poker Chat where more people will see it, &, I hope, reply.

Thanks!

hhyftrftdr

CraigSG1 said:

A sigh fold for me. Too early and better spots to be had.

It's a bit meh facing 2 all ins, and granted quite early, but I'm not sure what better spot you're looking for than having a double nut combo draw and the chance to scoop a huge pot and a bounty.

I'm really not sure if a call is correct but I'd be struggling to find a fold despite the action.

Even 3 way you're not gonna be in terrible shape against pretty much any holdings; no-one has you in a coffin.

daveydavey

daveydavey said:

CraigSG1 said:

A sigh fold for me. Too early and better spots to be had.

Thank you.

That's what I did My thoughts on fold were, there's a good chance someone has two clubs, but it's very unlikely both players have clubs, so my flush draw odds are lower and I definitely need a club.

But the fact a jack was a win too, and possibly an ace (albeit not in this case) makes me think it was maybe a sigh call.

"definitely need a club" and then talk about two non clubs I could win with Signing off for the night.

StayOrGo

12 outs for the NUTS, even if your Ace is not good, snap call, I am afraid. Made easier by the pot odds of two all ins.

You are 40%+ against their actual hands, not bad three way: (see below)



Even if, (worse case scenario) you think one of them has a set you still have a better than 1 in 3 chance (just), so with bounties, and the opportunity to build a big stack early, (and potentially more bounties arising as a result) I'd go for it.



Next time.

craigcu12

deleted message

LARSON7

You have massive equity with the nut flush draw / gut shot straight draw so yes get it in!

It also benefits from having a bounty up for grabs too.

Graham ably demonstrates that for you, so “next time” we are, for sure, a calling.

mcglynn07

Davey if you have nfd and gunshot then you should be willing to get it in. You are in great shape even against 2 pairs sets and other Fd's. You have no fold equity as two players are all in. But you have massive equity in this spot even though you dont have a hand yet. And you came here to gamble right. You probably got tilted at missing this opportunity and then went out on a hand you did not play as well. This is completely normal and natural for some. It happens just try and learn from it.
Sometimes you have to take the risk of a three way all in with not alot but the opportunity to win a really big pot to knock out opponents to win bounties and build a stack that you can really do some damage with.
It is not always clear what the right path is but if you are ever unsure best to take the aggressive line in future.
Good luck Danny

craigcu12

What you gonna do with AA, AK, Kc Qc KcJc K4, QcJc? if the answer is call well you'll be shocked to hear Aq has got better equity than all of these.
Here is a matrix showing the equity of all these combos, and you can see here the only things better than this are TT and 44, AcKc and KT only a fraction better. One thing which might shock you is K4 doesn't even have as good equity as AQ I was suprised myself

This is based on the idea barfoot12 shoved AA AK TT KcQc QcJc and ozzy called as AK+ value and combo draws

Even if I were to give barfoot12 a more crazy range consisting of just AK and QQ for value and combos like AQ QcJc Jc9c nut flush draws and some K flush draws AQ has still got better equity than K4s AK, KCQc QcJc and matches the equity of AA


As sick a call as it seems AQ is gonna win you more chips long term than a number of hands you expect and it's because that has got clear outs to go ahead and will stay ahead most of the time whereas things like AA and K4 are strong combos that struggle to stay ahead of many worse combos whilst KQ and QJ are gonna be in spots where the outs they need are no good.

NOTE: if it were HU AA AK K4s, KcQc and KcJc would all have better equity that AQ.

daveydavey

Thanks everyone for commenting. I've thought about it this morning and think I would have got around to making a call if I'd had a timebank function, but in the moment I couldn't process it...and I just didn't want to be at risk so early, wrong thought process.

@craigcu12 & @StayOrGo , is the software you've used freely available? Could you link if so?

Cheers again.

StayOrGo

daveydavey said:

Thanks everyone for commenting. I've thought about it this morning and think I would have got around to making a call if I'd had a timebank function, but in the moment I couldn't process it...and I just didn't want to be at risk so early, wrong thought process.

@craigcu12 & @StayOrGo , is the software you've used freely available? Could you link if so?

Cheers again.

Yes it's free. Here's the link:

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem

This one is also very good:

http://www.propokertools.com/simulations

craigcu12

daveydavey said:

Thanks everyone for commenting. I've thought about it this morning and think I would have got around to making a call if I'd had a timebank function, but in the moment I couldn't process it...and I just didn't want to be at risk so early, wrong thought process.

@craigcu12 & @StayOrGo , is the software you've used freely available? Could you link if so?

Cheers again.

The software I used it's flopzilla pro sadly it's not free but it's cost is just $35 or for $25 you can get the older version of flozilla, they do have a free trial which will allow you see for yourself if you like it or not. If you want to become more active on poker and understand ranges then flopzilla is well worth the money
https://flopzilla.com/

Here is a video showing you how it works
https://youtube.com/watch?v=QEKU1588ORM

mcglynn07

Craigcu12 is it just flop ranges and equity post you are studying on Flopzilla pro. What would you say are the best bits about it? do you have any tips for me as I am buying at end of the month and I only use propoker tools at the minute
I watched a video where you can build and save all of your ranges which is something I plan to do can I ask do you have different sets of ranges for deeper stack tournys rather than bounties which are rather shallow stacked?
cheers Craig good luck

craigcu12

mcglynn07 said:

Craigcu12 is it just flop ranges and equity post you are studying on Flopzilla pro. What would you say are the best bits about it? do you have any tips for me as I am buying at end of the month and I only use propoker tools at the minute
I watched a video where you can build and save all of your ranges which is something I plan to do can I ask do you have different sets of ranges for deeper stack tournys rather than bounties which are rather shallow stacked?
cheers Craig good luck

The feature I like best is multiply player mood, this allows you to see the equity of your range, the equity of each hand vs opponents range, what percentage of opponents hands are nutted and the hottness (how good) of cards on future streets.

I used it to look at a COvsBTN range on board T65 7cc and I was shocked to see that 7 is nowhere near as nasty as it looked in game. This will help you get a much better idea on how dangerous a card really is. It's also a great way of allowing you to see how well your range will be in multiway spots and as you can see in example above your hand is sometimes weaker than it should.

I haven't put many deeper stacked ranges into flopzilla, I have got ranges for 60BB,50BB,40BBB 30BB... . If I were to add deeperstacked ranges I would add more suited hands to the range because these are what make nutted value and in deepstack that's what you want.

rspca12

feel like this is a call its a bounty right we cover one. also think we sould be 3 betting pre with aqcc rather then flat calling. playing from sb never gd and old rule always 3 bet from sb if playing in raised pot. still works in today games.

Tedson

We want to be 3betting our premium hands from the SB every time, unless we have a strong reason not to e.g. near the bubble, or the raise came from a very tight player UTG

As played, got to call it off with our equity and a bounty in play. As well as meaning we have more to win, the bounty also means that Ozzie will be calling off the jam a lot wider. He knows that a jam for 9x pot isn’t usually super strong (unless it comes from Phil Hellmuth), so will be calling it off with draws and top pairs. If it wasn’t a bounty Hunter, Ozzie would call pretty tight and I’d be much more worried about him having a set, which would put us in bad shape.

daveydavey

Tedson said:

We want to be 3betting our premium hands from the SB every time, unless we have a strong reason not to e.g. near the bubble, or the raise came from a very tight player UTG

As played, got to call it off with our equity and a bounty in play. As well as meaning we have more to win, the bounty also means that Ozzie will be calling off the jam a lot wider. He knows that a jam for 9x pot isn’t usually super strong (unless it comes from Phil Hellmuth), so will be calling it off with draws and top pairs. If it wasn’t a bounty Hunter, Ozzie would call pretty tight and I’d be much more worried about him having a set, which would put us in bad shape.

Thanks. The more I've thought about it, and similar situations, and what I am grappling with as a concept is that as has been shown above I was around 40% to win the hand and potentially as low as 33% if a set was there...I understand the idea of pot odds, but in a MTT I was thinking "why call into a situation where you're majority exiting" - and while I think I get it, that long term it's worth exiting for the stack i'd get on the times I do win, it's still something I need to get to grips with mentally and put into action.