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Following on from Ex Poker Player uses drones to beat the bookies
TheEdge949
Member Posts: 5,713
I have read and re read the article and cannot make up my mind whether its actually the bookies who are getting beaten here or whether in fact its online scalpers and other in running punters who come out on the wrong end.
The fact the Mr. McCool is using the Betfair platform with a specific programme leads me to believe its primarily the latter. This poses the question why would the bookies even care as these markets are primarily exchange fluctuations and are person to person trades.
Lets be honest if the bookies were getting hammered they would just stop taking in running wagers. Problem solved right there. But they don't and they won't because as usual they want to have their cake, your cake, my cake and eat it.
Away from horseracing, surely the most crooked sport ever, well perhaps after greyhounds. Latency or delay will always be an issue, take tennis as an example. A point is not officially won until the umpire has confirmed the score usually by means of pressing a button on his chair, now open bets for that point cannot be settled and the odds for the next point cannot be displayed until that's happened.
Some Umpires are slower than others which means that with swift and effecient courtsiding you are effectively past posted. In fact some professional courtsiders will follow the circuit, actively seeking games where the less efficient Umpires are officiating even to the point where they go to lengths to prevent recognition from security.
Nearly all American sports can be effectively courtsided in a similar way, as the latency in Trans Atlantic transmissions can be many seconds, all you need is somebody pitchside with a phone signal and you're good to go, basketball would be a good one due to the frantic nature and rapid turnover of points.
Personally I don't see anything wrong in seeking that edge and driving it home. For me Bookies are manipulative hypocrites, creating ever more questionable markets with almost no liquidity, spending millions on TV ads extoling the virtues of fun, enjoyment and togetherness whilst finding reasons to not pay out big wins, restricting accounts and behaving like little children when it doesn't all go their way.
Stop using traditional bookmakers guys, use exchanges or spreads instead the value is much better
The exchanges don't care as it's not their money and they make their commission regardless of which party wins, exchange prices are always better than bookmakers as well, their markets are set between 99.8% and 100.2% with the ticks flipping either way to keep it balanced.
Same with the spread firms, their profits are locked into the space between the buy and sell so they don't really give a hoot unless they make a monumental rickett with the opening offer and everybody trades it one way very quickly with no money on the other end, which is almost never going to happen.
I'll leave you with my own "past posted" sort of story.
Around 2000 I was in Manchester Airport when I spotted a very well known golfer who had flown in to play The Open. I enquired as to if he was looking forward to it and was informed that he was injured and was only there to fulfil his requirements to his sponsors. He seemed really p***** off so I wished him good luck and went on my way. Getting home I fired up the P.C, no laptop in those days, logged into my spread account, looked at the index for the upcoming Open, pretty much emptied my bank account to deposit into the spread account and sold his points on the index.
Sufficed to say he didn't make the cut having been one of the top 20 names on the index, returned back to the States presumably with his sponsorship intact and I cleaned up.
It was only later whilst recounting this to a couple of friends that one informed me that as spread betting firms came under the auspice of the FSA I had in fact been guilty of indsider trading. To be honest I was never sure whether to believe him or not but it wouldn't matter. If I had the opportunity presented again I would take it.
Ok that's my rant at the bookies over.
The fact the Mr. McCool is using the Betfair platform with a specific programme leads me to believe its primarily the latter. This poses the question why would the bookies even care as these markets are primarily exchange fluctuations and are person to person trades.
Lets be honest if the bookies were getting hammered they would just stop taking in running wagers. Problem solved right there. But they don't and they won't because as usual they want to have their cake, your cake, my cake and eat it.
Away from horseracing, surely the most crooked sport ever, well perhaps after greyhounds. Latency or delay will always be an issue, take tennis as an example. A point is not officially won until the umpire has confirmed the score usually by means of pressing a button on his chair, now open bets for that point cannot be settled and the odds for the next point cannot be displayed until that's happened.
Some Umpires are slower than others which means that with swift and effecient courtsiding you are effectively past posted. In fact some professional courtsiders will follow the circuit, actively seeking games where the less efficient Umpires are officiating even to the point where they go to lengths to prevent recognition from security.
Nearly all American sports can be effectively courtsided in a similar way, as the latency in Trans Atlantic transmissions can be many seconds, all you need is somebody pitchside with a phone signal and you're good to go, basketball would be a good one due to the frantic nature and rapid turnover of points.
Personally I don't see anything wrong in seeking that edge and driving it home. For me Bookies are manipulative hypocrites, creating ever more questionable markets with almost no liquidity, spending millions on TV ads extoling the virtues of fun, enjoyment and togetherness whilst finding reasons to not pay out big wins, restricting accounts and behaving like little children when it doesn't all go their way.
Stop using traditional bookmakers guys, use exchanges or spreads instead the value is much better
The exchanges don't care as it's not their money and they make their commission regardless of which party wins, exchange prices are always better than bookmakers as well, their markets are set between 99.8% and 100.2% with the ticks flipping either way to keep it balanced.
Same with the spread firms, their profits are locked into the space between the buy and sell so they don't really give a hoot unless they make a monumental rickett with the opening offer and everybody trades it one way very quickly with no money on the other end, which is almost never going to happen.
I'll leave you with my own "past posted" sort of story.
Around 2000 I was in Manchester Airport when I spotted a very well known golfer who had flown in to play The Open. I enquired as to if he was looking forward to it and was informed that he was injured and was only there to fulfil his requirements to his sponsors. He seemed really p***** off so I wished him good luck and went on my way. Getting home I fired up the P.C, no laptop in those days, logged into my spread account, looked at the index for the upcoming Open, pretty much emptied my bank account to deposit into the spread account and sold his points on the index.
Sufficed to say he didn't make the cut having been one of the top 20 names on the index, returned back to the States presumably with his sponsorship intact and I cleaned up.
It was only later whilst recounting this to a couple of friends that one informed me that as spread betting firms came under the auspice of the FSA I had in fact been guilty of indsider trading. To be honest I was never sure whether to believe him or not but it wouldn't matter. If I had the opportunity presented again I would take it.
Ok that's my rant at the bookies over.
Comments
@TheEdge949
I have read and re read the article and cannot make up my mind whether its actually the bookies who are getting beaten here or whether in fact its online scalpers and other in running punters who come out on the wrong end.
This is an important point. These guys are only competing against rival "sharps", & it's not really affecting the average recreational punter. And as it happens, I don't think it's sustainable.
If I find time, I'll post a really interesting Blog which relates to all this. It's fascinating.
Remind me if I forget.