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Football trading on Betfair.
TheEdge949
Member Posts: 5,713
About May of 2018 I did a piece in ask Channing regarding the art of arbitrage and generally bemoaning the fact that chances to really arb as opposed to matched betting were becoming fewer and fewer due to the mass of algorithms churning out -EV prices whilst monitoring accounts for such activity.
Matched betting also is getting more difficult to make any real money from, as bookies restrict accounts very quickly and offers and bonus's become less attractive forcing players to search out less and less reliable bookmakers.
Also matched betting isn't really scalable. Most offers don't equate to much more than £20 and bookies these days are even quick to void free bets if the think you're matching which can leave you exposed to the market.
So with that in mind I've decided to stop all other forms of fixed odds betting and with the exception of some spread betting on Sporting Index, concentrate exclusively on sports trading, and football in particular.
Now I am not a total newbie at this, but whereas in the past I have traded many aspects of footbal,l I am for the time being going to concentrate on over/under 1.5 goals, Back To Lay the Fave, Lay The Draw and Dutching/Skewing the correct score.
Working on the theory that a strategy which produces at a low, level stake can then be scaled up and will produce the same % ROI at a higher level stake. I intend to spend the rest of the season trialing strategies for these 4 markets initially at just £2 stakes.
The idea isn't to make big money it's to prove that the strategy works whilst limiting exposure and liability to a point where if I lose the lot its absolutely fine. Obviously the idea is to adopt workable strategies so that trades can confidently be placed for larger stakes next season.
Also it might become apparent that I absolutely stink at one or more of the strategies. Again that's fine, if so it gets dumped and I'll look at new markets to trade.
Just wondered if anybody has experience of trading who can offer advice that could help. I know there's a wealth of info online and on you tube etc, Caan Berry, Peter Webb, Alex Ong et al but I believe that not all that glistens is gold.
Cheers.
Mark
Matched betting also is getting more difficult to make any real money from, as bookies restrict accounts very quickly and offers and bonus's become less attractive forcing players to search out less and less reliable bookmakers.
Also matched betting isn't really scalable. Most offers don't equate to much more than £20 and bookies these days are even quick to void free bets if the think you're matching which can leave you exposed to the market.
So with that in mind I've decided to stop all other forms of fixed odds betting and with the exception of some spread betting on Sporting Index, concentrate exclusively on sports trading, and football in particular.
Now I am not a total newbie at this, but whereas in the past I have traded many aspects of footbal,l I am for the time being going to concentrate on over/under 1.5 goals, Back To Lay the Fave, Lay The Draw and Dutching/Skewing the correct score.
Working on the theory that a strategy which produces at a low, level stake can then be scaled up and will produce the same % ROI at a higher level stake. I intend to spend the rest of the season trialing strategies for these 4 markets initially at just £2 stakes.
The idea isn't to make big money it's to prove that the strategy works whilst limiting exposure and liability to a point where if I lose the lot its absolutely fine. Obviously the idea is to adopt workable strategies so that trades can confidently be placed for larger stakes next season.
Also it might become apparent that I absolutely stink at one or more of the strategies. Again that's fine, if so it gets dumped and I'll look at new markets to trade.
Just wondered if anybody has experience of trading who can offer advice that could help. I know there's a wealth of info online and on you tube etc, Caan Berry, Peter Webb, Alex Ong et al but I believe that not all that glistens is gold.
Cheers.
Mark
Comments
I'd actually be interested in any thought you wish to share on Sporting Index Spreads, as I enjoy a dabble on those.
I quite like betting stuff like Multi-Corners in Football, & to be honest, although I research the Corner Stats thoroughly, the actual outcomes strike me as almost wholly random. Though maybe I'm just a poor judge.
Any thought of profit needs to be in live markets when you actually watch a game that is very very close to the actual time of the in play game. 2 minutes off is usually too much.
Betfair can easily make you money indirectly. The fact that it's so efficient tells you the exact value of a position and you can find soft odds elsewhere to value bet. Time and time again you will see that system make money, proving even more just how efficient Betfair odds are.
The problem with people like Caan Berry etc is that any inefficiency he notices is nullified in an instant, or in some cases it's all just pie in the sky anyway. It's mostly useless theory.
Many punters will see that Man city are playing at Watford and assume that it's going to be all City, which it probably would be and that a desperate Watford defence will concede corner after corner whilst defending.
However, if you look at the Way City attack it isn't by getting wide and throwing cross after cross into the area. They get wide and then attack the angle of the box with quick passes and give and goes which means the defenders are facing forward or sideways and much less likely to concede a corner.
Chelsea on the other hand attack wide down the flanks with wing backs trying to get around the outside and either pull back or fire across goal, defenders only really have 1 option here.
Talking of defenders, many are now comfortable on the ball and these are not the teams who tend to concede too many corners, many of the value markets are where Sky takes a game from Leagues 1 or 2 also national league games on BT can be quite profitable.
Also consider the possibility of back to back corners. Back in the day Stoke were adept at using their huge size to create repeat corners as defenders struggled to cope and heading it behind was often the only option. This often led to 2,3 or even 4 corners in very quick succession, an absolute gift for any body on multis so look for teams with a big physical presence.
It all comes down to research though really. if I was looking to profit from the spreads on multi corners I would use a stats resource to look at how many corners each team average as a home or away side, also how many shots do they have on target as they often lead to a corner, do they play a wide game, do they adopt a reasoned approach or is it a more helter skelter, all out full on approach.
Finally, is there anything at stake or are both teams happy with a point? certain games are not good for corners. Dead rubbers, any game where extra time is a possibility and early group stage games in World Cup / Euro Champs etc.
The other thing to remember is that with spreads you are not married to the position, don't be afraid to trade out for a small loss rather then let it blindly run.
I'm sure others on here can offer better advice and probably more succinctly
I was a buyer at 27 Multi-Corners (1st half x 2nd half) in a match last week & after 40 minutes there had been exactly 2 corners so I took my medicine & traded out for an 18 point loss. Then 4 back to back corners followed in the next 3 minutes, & 8 more in the 2nd half.
The glorious uncertainty of betting eh?
For Corner Stats I use "SoccerStats", this site;
https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england&tid=cr
Then I reinforce that with some general research. And then I guess...
Also I have strict criteria for entering a market with regards to liquidity, being able to watch live pictures and value.
For example if I'm looking at backing over 1.5 in a match that's 0-0 at half time I want a favorite that's no bigger than 2.1 at least £25k liquidity in the market and a min 2.5 on the market with access to live pictures. The only question then is whether I drip @ 50% then wait 6 mins then 25% then wait 7 mins then the rest or go the whole stake at the entry point odds.
Obviously the trade can still go ahead if the score is say 1-0 , 1-1, 0-1 etc it's just that over 1.5 becomes over2.5 or 3.5, although I prefer 0-0.
At the moment I am finding I will get 3 winners and then 1 loser, so at my stakes I am making a small profit.
Another trade I am doing is under 3.5 goals, I trade before kick off and cash out between the 15th and 25th minute and if there are no goals I will make between 10 and 25%.
Last night I had 12 matches ear marked and there was only one goal scored before 25 minutes in all of the matches, but the the average odds were about 1.28, I only traded in a couple of them for a small profit.
I've been doing it since Nov/Dec and I am £68 in profit, I do well if I keep the trades to £5/£10, if I do £20/£30 trades and get a couple of hits am back to where I started.